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Saturday World Cup Projections: Numbers Say Bet USA in Multiple Ways

Saturday World Cup Projections: Numbers Say Bet USA in Multiple Ways article feature image

The United States and Netherlands kick off the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup on Saturday.

American fans want to know, what are the chances the US move on to the quarterfinals? Thankfully, predictive analytics can help us project the USA’s chances.

After their win over Iran on Tuesday, I took an early look at the American’s chances to advance. The projections have been slightly refined as more games have been played.

I also have projections for Saturday’s other game between Argentina and Australia.

My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.

Let’s dive into Saturday’s World Cup games.

Saturday World Cup Projections

All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise

Round of 16: USA vs. Netherlands (10 a.m. ET)

  • The Netherlands are 42.1% to win in regulation and 49.8% to win prior to a possible penalty shootout.
  • There’s an 18.8% chance this game goes to penalties.
  • Overall, the Netherlands are favored to advance at 59.1%
  • This Dutch team had a negative expected goal (xG) differential in the group stage.
  • USA had a positive xG differential from the run of play in all three of their group games.
  • Books are underrating the American’s chances to advance according to my simulations.
  • Let’s back the US in a couple markets, including half a unit on the moneyline.
  • Best Bets: USA to advance (+192 via FanDuel), USA/Draw double chance (-120 via FanDuel), USA ML (+370 via BetRivers)
  • Bet to: +175, -120, and +325 respectively
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Round of 16: Argentina vs. Australia (2 p.m. ET)

  • Argentina are 78.6% to win in regulation and 86.0% to win prior to a possible penalty shootout.
  • There’s a 7.5% chance this game goes to penalties.
  • Overall, Argentina are favored to advance at 89.7%
  • Australia have been lucky this tournament, scoring three goals vs. 1.6 xG and allowing four vs 5.6 xG against.
  • Unfortunately for bettors who want some action, the market is largely in line with my projections.
  • There’s thin value on a regulation draw (+600 via DraftKings) vs. +530 per simulations.
  • I’ll pass here though as Australia’s luck is more likely to regress than not.

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