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Thursday World Cup Projections: Best Bets Include Portugal, South Korea, More

Thursday World Cup Projections: Best Bets Include Portugal, South Korea, More article feature image
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Patricia De Melo Moreira/Getty. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.

Group G and Group H play on Day 5 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. After these games, all teams will have one match under their belt.

My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.

The projections got off to a hot start, hitting Japan moneyline (+700) and Spain to score four or more goals (+260) on the first day of this series.

So, what do my simulations say for Day 5? Let’s find out!

World Cup Projections

Group G: Switzerland vs. Cameroon (5 a.m ET)

 

  • Swizterland are a 59.2% favorite to win according to my simulations.
  • Cameroon only have a 13.9% chance of scoring more than one goal.
  • Sportsbooks are largely in line with these projections.
  • Thus, I’ll pass on betting the game.

Group H: Uruguay vs. South Korea (8 a.m. ET)

 

  • Uruguay are at 47.0% to win according to my simulations.
  • There is betting value on both a draw and on South Korea winning.
  • Uruguay only have a 37.3% chance to score multiple goals thanks to South Korea’s strong defense.
  • Meanwhile, South Korea are favored to score at 57.4% by these projections.
  • Combining these, South Korea have a 53.0% chance to get a result.
  • Best Bet: South Korea +0.5 (+120 via DraftKings)
  • Bet to: +110

Group H: Portugal vs. Ghana (11 a.m. ET)

 

  • Portugal are a 80.7% favorite to win according to my simulations.
  • Ghana are arguably the worst team at the World Cup based on power ratings.
  • This is the second-most lopsided match of the group stages.
  • Thus, let’s follow the Spain/Costa Rica formula.
  • Portugal have a 42.9% chance to score more than 2 goals.
  • Best Bet: Portugal over 2.5 goals (+220 via FanDuel)
  • Bet to: +175

Group G: Brazil vs. Serbia (2 p.m. ET)

 

  • Brazil are a 62.6% favorite to win according to my simulations.
  • Serbia are a strong team, winning their qualifying group with Portugal.
  • Serbia were not held scoreless in qualifying, but Brazil have a great defense.
  • This gives us a wide range of outcomes on Serbia’s side.
  • As there’s a wide range of outcomes here, I’m only betting half of a unit.
  • Best Bet: Both to Score and Draw (+490 via FanDuel)
  • Bet to: +480

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