Everton vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Vardy Injury Will Limit Foxes (Jan. 27)

Everton vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Vardy Injury Will Limit Foxes (Jan. 27) article feature image
Credit:

Rui Vieiera/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City star Jamie Vardy will miss the match with an injury.

  • Leicester City takes on Everton in Premier League action Wednesday at Goodison Park.
  • Jamie Vardy will miss the match, which could limit the Foxes' offense.
  • Anthony Dabbundo tells us why he thinks this will be a low-scoring battle below.

Everton vs. Leicester City Odds

Everton Odds +180
Leicester City Odds +160
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-106/-118) 
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
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Two of the upstart Premier League teams will face off on Merseyside on Wednesday, with third-place Leicester City visiting Everton.

The Foxes will not be at full strength, though, with Jamie Vardy missing the important contest after picking up a  hernia injury. That will surely blunt their attack against the sixth-place Toffees.

Let’s take a look this match and what’s potentially in store.

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Everton

The Toffees are boosted by the return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, which should boost them even though they have won five of their last six league matches.

Even as Everton went through a difficult time generating chances without Calvert-Lewin, Lucas Digne and James Rodriguez in the lineup, it has improved on the defensive side. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side has allowed just 1.15 xGA per match during that six-fixture run.

The Toffees have also struggled to generate chances, creating .82 xG per 90 in that same stretch. They’ve become a solid “under” team, following a period where their defense was leaking goals. Everton’s attack has been over-performing with its xG in recent weeks, suggesting it has been fortunate to get the results it has thus far.

Leicester City

The Foxes’ form in both results and underlying numbers are trending positively in recent weeks, but the injury to Vardy hurts the Foxes’ attacking output.

Vardy is Leicester City’s  leading shot-getter, generating 0.76 xG per 90 and has won it plenty of penalties during the campaign. And while the Foxes’ offense is marginally better since the return of James Maddison to the Starting XI, the real improvement for them has been on defense.

Leicester City, which has allowed 2.3 xGA in its last four matches, is averaging less than one xGA per match since Wilfried Ndidi got back in the lineup. Even in its crucial 2-0 win against Chelsea, there was only one big scoring chance created, which Maddison put away for a goal.

Needless to say, the Foxes aren’t going to create a ton of chances in this match, especially since they are thin up front.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Ancelotti and Brendan Rodgers are two of the most tactically conservative managers in all of the league, and when they play against each other, the games don’t tend to be open and free flowing.

Both previous meetings between these two sides with these guys in charge had less than 2.5 xG. My numbers suggest no play on the side, and I can’t trust Leicester City without Vardy to get all three points.

However, I project 2.33 goals in this game and will back under 2.5 goals at -118 or better, as the improved defenses should keep this game under the number.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-118 or better)

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