Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Southampton (Wednesday, April 21)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Southampton (Wednesday, April 21) article feature image
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Peter Powell/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur star Son Heung-min.

  • Tottenham Hotspur hosts Southampton on Wednesday in an important Premier League match.
  • Spurs will have former player Ryan Mason at the helm after José Mourinho was sacked by the club.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the contest below and explains why he's backing Tottenham in a low-scoring affair.

Spurs vs. Southampton Odds

Spurs Odds -124
Southampton Odds +340
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-134 / +108)
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Tuesday evening via DraftKings.

Life with José Mourinho at the Tottenham Hotspur helm came to a sudden end Monday when the club sacked its manager. Now, former Spurs youth footballer and first-teamer Ryan Mason has taken the reins at a time with a wild stretch of matches coming up.

Mason will take Mourinho’s spot on the Tottenham sideline Wednesday when his lads face struggling Southampton in a Premier League fixture. The 29-year-old, who was part of Spurs soccer as a player from 2008-15 before joining Hull City during the 2016 season, will hope he can lead a side chasing a top-four finish.

Tottenham sits in seventh place with 50 points in England’s top flight, putting it five points behind fourth-place Chelsea and fifth-place West Ham United. Spurs are only six points back of Leicester City, so cracking the top four and securing a Champions League berth is not out of the question.

In contrast, the Saints are seemingly going through the motions as the season winds down. Not in jeopardy of being relegated, Southampton is in 14th place on 36 points. The visiting side is coming off a brutal 3-0 defeat at the hands of drop-zone resident West Bromwich Albion in its most recent contest.

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Spurs

I thought it was kind of interesting (and somewhat odd) Tottenham fired Mourinho at this point in the season, especially since it plays Manchester City in Sunday’s Carabao Cup final. One would think Spurs would have waited to make the change at season’s end, but that obviously wasn’t the case.

Tottenham earned a 2-2 draw against Everton this past weekend, with Harry Kane bagging the brace in the come-from-behind victory. If we’re being honest, Spurs were lucky to leave Goodison Park with a point. They were dominated in the expected-goals battle by the Toffees, who held a  2.3-1.2 xG at the final whistle.

Now, Kane (who picked up a knock in the Everton stalemate and could be rested) and teammate Son Heung-min must rally their teammates. Tottenham must put in an efficient performance against Southampton that won’t come at a price ahead with the huge showdown with Manchester City on the horizon.

Southampton

This really has become a lost situation in the final third of the season for the Saints, who have one win and three points in their last four outings. That lone victory — albeit an important one — during this stretch came via a 3-2 victory over Burnley on April 4 at St Mary’s Stadium.

Prior to the shellacking Southampton endured against West Brom at The Hawthorns, the offense was doing its part to at least give it a chance. Unfortunately, it has been the defense that hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. The Saints have conceded a whopping 12 goals in their last four league fixtures, which simply won’t cut it any level in professional soccer.

The Baggies, who scored twice in the opening half, put the game away on Callum Robinson’s goal midway through the second 45 minutes to close out the win and leave the Saints looking for answers during this recent slide. West Brom held a sizable edge in xG, finishing with a 2.9-2.1 advantage.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Honestly, I think Tottenham is going to put in a solid shift in Mason’s first match. You tend to see players rally around their new leader at all levels of sports, which is what I see happening in this affair.

For that reason, I’m backing Spurs to pick up a victory in Mason’s debut as my top pick. Tottenham has absolutely dominated Southampton on home soil, winning nine of the last 10 meetings at its north London stadium. Combine that with the fact the Saints have lost seven of their last eight road league affairs, and you have to like your chances of hitting this wager.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of 2.75 goals at -115 odds via DraftKings. The historical trends forecast otherwise, but I fully anticipate Mason to rest some of his stars ahead of this weekend’s Carabao Cup final with Manchester City. That should translate into more defense and fewer prime scoring opportunities in this match.

Picks: Spurs ML (-124) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-115)

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