PGA Championship 2022 Sleepers: 5 Longshot Picks, Including Max Homa, Adam Scott, More
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Homa.
- With 97 of the world's top 100 players at the PGA Championship, there's value to be had on the odds board.
- Some of the best have bigger numbers than usual, and Shane McNichol has picked five of his favorites.
- Check out McNichol's five favorite longshot bets this week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 PGA Championship odds via BetMGM
2022 PGA Championship Odds
|Harold Varner III||+10000|
|Si Woo Kim||+12500|
|Erik van Rooyen||+20000|
|Min Woo Lee||+30000|
|Daniel van Tonder||+50000|
|Wyatt Worthington ll||+100000|
While the golf world stirred itself into a frenzy, the tournaments being played since the Masters haven’t been very inspiring for golf fans.
That changes this week with the arrival of the season’s second major championship: the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club.
Tulsa, Okla., plays host to a stacked field, wide open for a winner to emerge from among the favorites or from well further down the board.
These five players jump out as possible dark-horse candidates to make waves in Tulsa this weekend.
2022 PGA Championship Sleeper Picks
Max Homa +8000 (DraftKings)
Over the last three years, Max Homa has developed into a force at weekly PGA TOUR events. He’s not only playing better golf than he had at earlier points in his life, but he’s also shown an ability to turn leaderboard contention into wins at a high rate.
4+ PGA Tour wins since May 2019
Cantlay – 6
McIlroy – 5
Homa – 4
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 8, 2022
You aren’t finding any other player with four wins since 2019 being offered at odds this high. In fact, the other eight players who fit that criteria are all among the favorites this week and can’t be found higher than roughly 25-1.
So, why no love for Homa from the bookmakers?
To date, his performance in run-of-the-mill PGA TOUR events greatly outpaces his work in the majors. In 10 career starts at majors, Homa has yet to finish in the top 10. In fact, he’s yet to finish in the top 20 with a career best of T40 at the 2021 Open Championship. He’s only made the cut in three of those 10 starts.
While there is a gulf of differences between the skills and mindset needed to win a major title and winning at your average PGA TOUR stop, Homa’s game should fit both on paper. Eventually, he’ll be due to bring the A-game that has fueled his four wins on TOUR to a major. After a T13 at THE PLAYERS this year, his best finish in that event, he seems poised to make the next logical leap.
I don’t necessarily love Homa at +5000 (FanDuel’s current offering) or +6600 (BetMGM), but all the way at +8000, he’s worthy of a look.
Cameron Young +8000 (PointsBet)
Among the deluge of Camerons on the PGA TOUR, 25-year-old American Cameron Young deserves some shine. He has finished in the top three in both of his last two outings, with seven top-20 finishes this season.
His recent success has him leading the world in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 30 days. There isn’t a hotter golfer on the planet, except world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
Young isn’t a flash in the pan either. His driver is a skill that will translate. Over the past 12 months, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. That kind of weapon can make or break a player’s week at a major championship.
And though he has yet to make a cut in his three major starts, he’s poised to do so soon. Why not ride the wave early and catch Young while he’s still a longshot and not offered as one of the favorites at an event like this?
Adam Scott +11500 (WynnBet)
The golf world has dramatically shifted since last time the world’s best golfers teed off at Southern Hills at the 2007 PGA Championship. Southern Hills itself has changed plenty, with a renovation undertaken in that time. Very, very little can be gleaned about this week’s event by looking into the time machine at the results from 2007.
Only 17 players from that tournament’s field will return this week, but most are well into the twilight of their careers. Only two of that crop are being offered at odds lower than +10000 at most sportsbooks. One of those two was the champion at this venue back in 2007 – a golfer by the name Tiger Woods.
The other is Adam Scott, who finished T12 here in 2007 and continues to play great golf. This season, despite only one stroke play top 10 on U.S. soil, Scott has been playing like a potential tournament winner.
Over the last 12 months, he ranks ninth in the world in True Strokes Gained, per DataGolf. Since the 2022 FedEx Cup season opened in October, Scott has two top tens on the PGA Tour, two top 10s on the DP World Tour in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and only missed one cut in 13 starts (at the wind-plagued PLAYERS Championship).
His putter, considered a liability in the wake of the anchoring ban, is now a weapon. Scott ranks fifth in the world in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last year.
The combination of course familiarity and recent play would make Scott a potent threat if his putter gets extra hot this week.
This +11500 number is exclusively at WynnBet. Elsewhere, Scott is 80-1 or lower.
Talor Gooch +15000 (DraftKings)
This number jumps off the board a bit, since it doesn’t mesh with Gooch’s resume entering the PGA Championship. He’s played like a top-30 player in the world over the last six months by Strokes Gained, leading to eight top-15 finishes this season.
He’s also been a fairly reliable player in the majors, missing just one cut in five career starts. His T14 at Augusta was his best major finish to date.
Gooch has the game to contend this week and certainly offers value at a number this high.
Harry Higgs +50000 (BetRivers)
In my case for Max Homa, I argued that while there are differences between weekly PGA Tournaments and majors, good golf will find a way to translate.
As we make our way further down the board to find a mega-longshot, let’s throw that idea directly out the window.
Harry Higgs has not had anywhere close to the success that Max Homa has found on TOUR, especially this year. In 14 starts this calendar year, Higgs has just one top-15 finish and five made cuts.
He has, however, found a way to grind out finishes in the majors in his career. In his two starts at major championships, Higgs has finished in the top 15. His only top-15 this season that I just mentioned a moment ago? Yeah, that came at Augusta National.
The Big Rig has not been playing stellar golf lately, missing every cut since the Masters, but he’s shown an ability to grind out scores on difficult courses. Southern Hills bears little resemblance to last year’s PGA Championship venue at Kiawah, but if the wind blows as expected in Tulsa this week, Higgs might be able to squeak his way up the leaderboard playing a similar style as his T4 finish at the Ocean Course.