Sobel: WGC-Match Play Insights, Projections for All 96 Round Robin Matches

Not long after I tweeted some results from our Action Network Match Play Projections, there was a predictable response from an "old-school" guy who insisted that analytics couldn't determine the outcome of golf matches.

I told him that he was right, that the model doesn't offer any 100% winner guarantees, just like the being a favorite in the betting market doesn't guarantee a victory.

Upsets, after all, do happen, but they're called upsets for a reason; they were the least likely of the two outcomes.

Instead, our projections offer the probability of specific results in each instance. Even in the most lopsided circumstance, I told him — and very patiently, at least for the first few minutes — that the underdog is projected to win once every four times they'd play. And yes, that one time could indeed happen this week.

I don't think the concept is too difficult. In fact, I think it's really fun for an event like this week's WGC-Dell Match Play Championship.

So let's get right to all 96 round-robin matches — six in each group — that will take place Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Note: These percentages are meant to simulate the betting market, as any percentage can be converted into a moneyline  (Example: We'd project a player with a 66.7% chance of winning to be a -200 favorite in that specific matchup … -200 simply means you'd have to wager $200 to profit $100.)

GROUP 1

Dustin Johnson (74.2%) vs. Chez Reavie (25.8%)

Nobody is a bigger favorite in any match than DJ is here.

Branden Grace (40.1%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (59.9%)

If they fuel each other, could be a potential Prez Cup pairing.

Dustin Johnson (71.9%) vs. Branden Grace (28.1%)

According to our model, DJ will be projected to win any match this week.

Chez Reavie (37.3%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (62.7%)

Would probably be a smaller upset than Reavie's win over Rahm last year.

Dustin Johnson (63.2%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (36.8%)

Heavyweight slugfest, though probably without the pre-match trash-talk.

Chez Reavie (47.0%) vs. Branden Grace (53.0%)

Since the event moved to Austin, Grace owns a tidy 4-4-1 record.

GROUP 2

Justin Rose (64.7%) vs. Emiliano Grillo (35.3%)

Rose hasn't played this event since 2016, when Kuchar knocked him out.

Eddie Pepperell (42.6%) vs. Gary Woodland (57.4%)

Two guys moving up in the world, ranked about as high as they've ever been.

Justin Rose (63.9%) vs. Eddie Pepperell (36.1%)

Those 27.8 percentage points might be for Rose's experience in the format.

Emiliano Grillo (41.6%) vs. Gary Woodland (58.4%)

Two years ago, Woodland won this matchup, then WD'd the next day.

Justin Rose (56.7%) vs. Gary Woodland (43.3%)

Fun match here between the ball-striker and the basher.

Emiliano Grillo (49.0%) vs. Eddie Pepperell (51.0%)

The projections don't get much closer than this. Should be a fun match to watch.

GROUP 3

Brooks Koepka (67.1%) vs. Tom Lewis (32.9%)

After missing this event due to injury last year, Koepka could be an intimidating foe.

Haotong Li (48.4%) vs. Alex Noren (51.6%)

Tough to explain Noren's year, which has been stuck in reverse so far.

Brooks Koepka (62.6%) vs. Haotong Li (37.4%)

If Noren continues to struggle, this match could determine who advances.

Tom Lewis (43.5%) vs. Alex Noren (56.5%)

Lewis' last three results: MC-65-63. This could be a pillow fight.

Brooks Koepka (61.1%) vs. Alex Noren (38.9%)

Two years ago, Noren won this match against Koepka, 3 and 1.

Tom Lewis (45.1%) vs. Haotong Li (54.9%)

Li had a nice little start to the year going before MCs in his last two starts.

GROUP 4

Rory McIlroy (66.7%) vs. Luke List (33.3%)

The projections boldly proclaim that McIlroy owns a 2-to-1 chance here.

Justin Harding (43.3%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (56.7%)

They weren't at big events, but Harding owns five wins in the past 10 months.

Rory McIlroy (72.4%) vs. Justin Harding (27.6%)

Another lopsided projection for McIlroy, who should be a tough out.

Luke List (50%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (50%)

A little surprising here that Fitz isn't favored over the much lower-ranked List.

Rory McIlroy (66.7%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (33.3%)

When they played in the API final pairing recently, Fitz won the matchup.

Luke List (56.8%) vs. Justin Harding (43.2%)

In his first Match Play start last year, List finished 0-3-0.

GROUP 5

Justin Thomas (69.1%) vs. Lucas Bjerregaard (30.9%)

Bjerregaard is better than most people realize … but he's not beating JT.

Matt Wallace (48%) vs. Keegan Bradley (52%)

Two of the game's most consistent players this year in what will be a fun one.

Justin Thomas (64.5%) vs. Matt Wallace (35.5%)

Last year, JT won five straight before being ousted by the eventual champ.

Lucas Bjerregaard (42.8%) vs. Keegan Bradley (57.2%)

Bradley's lifetime match record in this event? An ugly 1-7-2.

Justin Thomas (62.7%) vs. Keegan Bradley (37.3%)

Expect plenty of aggressive swings and risks taken in this match.

Lucas Bjerregaard (44.8%) vs. Matt Wallace (55.2%)

Wallace has finished 33rd or better in 10 of his last 11 starts.

GROUP 6

Bryson DeChambeau (62.7%) vs. Russell Knox (37.3%)

BDC is the favorite, but a little surprising the projections favor him this much.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat (40%) vs. Marc Leishman (60%)

Leishman is 4-8-2, but three of those wins came before the move to Austin.

Bryson DeChambeau (64.2%) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (35.8%)

Oh, to be a fly on the wall for the conversation during this one…

Russell Knox (41.6%) vs. Marc Leishman (58.4%)

Once again, Knox getting snubbed a bit by the model; this feels low.

Bryson DeChambeau (54.5%) vs. Marc Leishman (45.5%)

Really strong matchup between two very solid players. Buckle up.

Russell Knox (51.6%) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (48.4%)

Knox is very consistent, which is usually tough to overcome in this format.

GROUP 7

Francesco Molinari (68.4%) vs. Satoshi Kodaira (31.6%)

Using our model, Kodaira was easily the lowest-rated player in the field.

Thorbjorn Olesen (40%) vs. Webb Simpson (60%)

Since this event moved to Austin, Simpson is 1-4-1.

Francesco Molinari (64.2%) vs. Thorbjorn Olesen (35.8%)

Besides his API victory, Molinari doesn't have a top-10 since last September.

Satoshi Kodaira (35.6%) vs. Webb Simpson (64.4%)

In his first Match Play start last year, Kodaira went 0-3-0.

Francesco Molinari (54.4%) vs. Webb Simpson (45.6%)

Expect plenty of greens in reg and not too many mistakes in this one.

Satoshi Kodaira (45.3%) vs. Thorbjorn Olesen (54.7%)

Olesen only has one finish inside the top-40 in his last seven starts.

GROUP 8

Jon Rahm (65.3%) vs. Siwoo Kim (34.7%)

After going 6-1-0 his first year in this event, Rahm was 0-2-1 last year.

J.B. Holmes (40.4%) vs. Matt Kuchar (59.6%)

Kuchar will be hitting first into most greens, but that shouldn't bother him.

Jon Rahm (66.1%) vs. J.B. Holmes (33.9%)

If Holmes slow-plays him, it's not hard to see Rahm getting frustrated here.

Siwoo Kim (41.2%) vs. Matt Kuchar (58.8%)

Since the move to Austin, Kuchar owns a robust 5-3-3 match record.

Jon Rahm (56.9%) vs. Matt Kuchar (43.1%)

Don't be surprised if this match determines who advances out of this group.

Siwoo Kim (50.9%) vs. J.B. Holmes (49.1%)

Very close numbers between the underdogs in this group.

GROUP 9

Xander Schauffele (57.6%) vs. Lee Westwood (42.4%)

X-man has made a habit of playing his best golf against the best fields.

Tyrrell Hatton (41.9%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (58.1%)

When they played here two years ago, RCB won, 2 and 1.

Xander Schauffele (60.4%) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (39.6%)

Advantage for Schauffele, who went 2-1-0 in his first Match Play last year.

Lee Westwood (44.7%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (55.3%)

In his first match in this event, Westwood lost to Tiger Woods — 21 years ago.

Xander Schauffele (52.3%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (47.7%)

Projections show only a slight advantage for Schauffele in this one.

Lee Westwood (52.9%) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (47.1%)

Interesting: The higher-ranked Westwood owns a better chance against Hatton.

GROUP 10

Paul Casey (62.5%) vs. Abraham Ancer (37.5%)

We'll see how much Casey has left in the tank after Sunday's victory.

Charles Howell III (47.8%) vs. Cameron Smith (52.2%)

Maybe not the biggest names, but one of the best Day 1 matches on the board.

Paul Casey (57.6%) vs. Charles Howell III (42.4%)

Two of the game's nicer dudes, but they own killer instincts deep inside.

Abraham Ancer (42.8%) vs. Cameron Smith (57.2%)

Couple of crafty guys with short irons and wedges in their hands.

Paul Casey (55.5%) vs. Cameron Smith (44.5%)

Casey won his first two matches last year, but was ousted from the tourney Friday.

Abraham Ancer (44.9%) vs. Charles Howell III (55.1%)

CH3 is fresh off a T-35 — his worst result since last fall.

GROUP 11

Tommy Fleetwood (58.8%) vs. Byeong Hun An (41.2%)

It's not a "Group of Death," but top-ranked Fleetwood should have his hands full.

Kyle Stanley (36.9%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (63.1%)

Solid weekend at Innisbrook should have Oosty ready for this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (67.7%) vs. Kyle Stanley (32.3%)

It's been rough for Stanley lately, with six MCs in his last seven starts.

Byeong Hun An (46.3%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (53.7%)

The first year this event moved to Austin, Oosty reached the final.

Tommy Fleetwood (55.1%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (44.9%)

This match should feature what you might call "a ball-striker's fiesta."

Byeong Hun An (59.6%) vs. Kyle Stanley (40.4%)

Not good for Stanley that the player ranked just above him is favored so heavily.

GROUP 12

Jason Day (59.7%) vs. Jim Furyk (40.3%)

Past champion could have his hands full with a resurgent Furyk.

Henrik Stenson (50.5%) vs. Phil Mickelson (49.5%)

Royal Troon all over again: Stenson held a slight advantage that day, too.

Jason Day (56.1%) vs. Henrik Stenson (43.9%)

Another one of the must-see round-robin matches.

Jim Furyk (46.8%) vs. Phil Mickelson (53.2%)

You just know Phil doesn't want to lose to his own Ryder Cup captain.

Jason Day (56.6%) vs. Phil Mickelson (43.4%)

Not many matches this week will have a higher Q-rating.

Jim Furyk (46.3%) vs. Henrik Stenson (53.7%)

The last time Furyk saw Stenson, he was beating up on his team in Paris.

GROUP 13

Tiger Woods (63.8%) vs. Aaron Wise (36.2%)

Add another name to the growing list of players competing with TW for the first time.

Brandt Snedeker (43.7%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (56.3%)

Cantlay could be a major X-factor this week — if he plays up to his talent level.

Tiger Woods (59.5%) vs. Brandt Snedeker (40.5%)

Pretty amazing: Tiger hasn't played this tournament in six full years.

Aaron Wise (39.3%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (60.7%)

Tough year so far for Wise, with four MCs in seven starts.

Tiger Woods (53.3%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (46.7%)

Great test for Cantlay, to see what he's got and how he handles the pressure.

Aaron Wise (45.5%) vs. Brandt Snedeker (54.5%)

Two years ago, Sneds went 2-1-0 in round-robin matches, but didn't advance.

GROUP 14

Tony Finau (59.4%) vs. Keith Mitchell (40.6%)

Just a couple of confident dudes who can mash the ball when they need to.

Kevin Kisner (44.1%) vs. Ian Poulter (55.9%)

More appointment viewing: One of the best matchups of the first three days.

Tony Finau (56.3%) vs. Kevin Kisner (43.7%)

In his last 10 matches in this event, Kisner is 7-1-2.

Keith Mitchell (41.1%) vs. Ian Poulter (58.9%)

Poulter said that before groups were made, Mitchell asked for his match-play secrets.

Tony Finau (50.5%) vs. Ian Poulter (49.5%)

Projections show a near-dead-even match between the top seeds in this group.

Keith Mitchell (46.8%) vs. Kevin Kisner (53.2%)

Expect Kisner to have an advantage in experience — and expect him to use it.

GROUP 15

Bubba Watson (62.2%) vs. Kevin Na (37.8%)

The defending champion is coming off another strong weekend in Tampa.

Billy Horschel (47.8%) vs. Jordan Spieth (52.2%)

One more week for Spieth to find his game before the upcoming Masters.

Bubba Watson (54.3%) vs. Billy Horschel (45.7%)

You can see one of them getting annoyed by the other; just not sure which is which.

Kevin Na (39.8%) vs. Jordan Spieth (60.2%)

Fresh off another injury WD, gotta wonder if Na is currently at full health.

Bubba Watson (52.1%) vs. Jordan Spieth (47.9%)

Fun match if they both bring their A games — or at least their B-minus games.

Kevin Na (42%) vs. Billy Horschel (58%)

Horschel is a model of consistency, with no MCs since last summer.

GROUP 16

Patrick Reed (63.7%) vs. Andrew Putnam (36.3%)

Working with new swing coach David Leadbetter might take some time for Reed.

Shane Lowry (39.2%) vs. Sergio Garcia (60.8%)

Two years ago, they halved their match in this event.

Patrick Reed (60.4%) vs. Shane Lowry (39.6%)

Reed has been struggling … but Lowry has been struggling even more.

Andrew Putnam (35.9%) vs. Sergio Garcia (64.1%)

Since this event moved to his adopted home in Austin, Garcia is 6-3-2.

Patrick Reed (49.6%) vs. Sergio Garcia (50.4%)

The second-ranked player in this group, our model gives the edge to Sergio.

Andrew Putnam (46.5%) vs. Shane Lowry (53.5%)

After a hot start, Putnam has struggled to get going lately.