Not long after I tweeted some results from our Action Network Match Play Projections, there was a predictable response from an "old-school" guy who insisted that analytics couldn't determine the outcome of golf matches.
I told him that he was right, that the model doesn't offer any 100% winner guarantees, just like the being a favorite in the betting market doesn't guarantee a victory.
Upsets, after all, do happen, but they're called upsets for a reason; they were the least likely of the two outcomes.
Instead, our projections offer the probability of specific results in each instance. Even in the most lopsided circumstance, I told him — and very patiently, at least for the first few minutes — that the underdog is projected to win once every four times they'd play. And yes, that one time could indeed happen this week.
I don't think the concept is too difficult. In fact, I think it's really fun for an event like this week's WGC-Dell Match Play Championship.
So let's get right to all 96 round-robin matches — six in each group — that will take place Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Note: These percentages are meant to simulate the betting market, as any percentage can be converted into a moneyline (Example: We'd project a player with a 66.7% chance of winning to be a -200 favorite in that specific matchup … -200 simply means you'd have to wager $200 to profit $100.)
GROUP 1
Dustin Johnson (74.2%) vs. Chez Reavie (25.8%)
Nobody is a bigger favorite in any match than DJ is here.
Branden Grace (40.1%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (59.9%)
If they fuel each other, could be a potential Prez Cup pairing.
Dustin Johnson (71.9%) vs. Branden Grace (28.1%)
According to our model, DJ will be projected to win any match this week.
Chez Reavie (37.3%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (62.7%)
Would probably be a smaller upset than Reavie's win over Rahm last year.
Dustin Johnson (63.2%) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (36.8%)
Heavyweight slugfest, though probably without the pre-match trash-talk.
Chez Reavie (47.0%) vs. Branden Grace (53.0%)
Since the event moved to Austin, Grace owns a tidy 4-4-1 record.
GROUP 2
Justin Rose (64.7%) vs. Emiliano Grillo (35.3%)
Rose hasn't played this event since 2016, when Kuchar knocked him out.
Eddie Pepperell (42.6%) vs. Gary Woodland (57.4%)
Two guys moving up in the world, ranked about as high as they've ever been.
Justin Rose (63.9%) vs. Eddie Pepperell (36.1%)
Those 27.8 percentage points might be for Rose's experience in the format.
Emiliano Grillo (41.6%) vs. Gary Woodland (58.4%)
Two years ago, Woodland won this matchup, then WD'd the next day.
Justin Rose (56.7%) vs. Gary Woodland (43.3%)
Fun match here between the ball-striker and the basher.
Emiliano Grillo (49.0%) vs. Eddie Pepperell (51.0%)
The projections don't get much closer than this. Should be a fun match to watch.
GROUP 3
Brooks Koepka (67.1%) vs. Tom Lewis (32.9%)
After missing this event due to injury last year, Koepka could be an intimidating foe.
Haotong Li (48.4%) vs. Alex Noren (51.6%)
Tough to explain Noren's year, which has been stuck in reverse so far.
Brooks Koepka (62.6%) vs. Haotong Li (37.4%)
If Noren continues to struggle, this match could determine who advances.
Tom Lewis (43.5%) vs. Alex Noren (56.5%)
Lewis' last three results: MC-65-63. This could be a pillow fight.
Brooks Koepka (61.1%) vs. Alex Noren (38.9%)
Two years ago, Noren won this match against Koepka, 3 and 1.
Tom Lewis (45.1%) vs. Haotong Li (54.9%)
Li had a nice little start to the year going before MCs in his last two starts.
GROUP 4
Rory McIlroy (66.7%) vs. Luke List (33.3%)
The projections boldly proclaim that McIlroy owns a 2-to-1 chance here.
Justin Harding (43.3%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (56.7%)
They weren't at big events, but Harding owns five wins in the past 10 months.
Rory McIlroy (72.4%) vs. Justin Harding (27.6%)
Another lopsided projection for McIlroy, who should be a tough out.
Luke List (50%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (50%)
A little surprising here that Fitz isn't favored over the much lower-ranked List.
Rory McIlroy (66.7%) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (33.3%)
When they played in the API final pairing recently, Fitz won the matchup.
Luke List (56.8%) vs. Justin Harding (43.2%)
In his first Match Play start last year, List finished 0-3-0.
GROUP 5
Justin Thomas (69.1%) vs. Lucas Bjerregaard (30.9%)
Bjerregaard is better than most people realize … but he's not beating JT.
Matt Wallace (48%) vs. Keegan Bradley (52%)
Two of the game's most consistent players this year in what will be a fun one.
Justin Thomas (64.5%) vs. Matt Wallace (35.5%)
Last year, JT won five straight before being ousted by the eventual champ.
Lucas Bjerregaard (42.8%) vs. Keegan Bradley (57.2%)
Bradley's lifetime match record in this event? An ugly 1-7-2.
Justin Thomas (62.7%) vs. Keegan Bradley (37.3%)
Expect plenty of aggressive swings and risks taken in this match.
Lucas Bjerregaard (44.8%) vs. Matt Wallace (55.2%)
Wallace has finished 33rd or better in 10 of his last 11 starts.
GROUP 6
Bryson DeChambeau (62.7%) vs. Russell Knox (37.3%)
BDC is the favorite, but a little surprising the projections favor him this much.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (40%) vs. Marc Leishman (60%)
Leishman is 4-8-2, but three of those wins came before the move to Austin.
Bryson DeChambeau (64.2%) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (35.8%)
Oh, to be a fly on the wall for the conversation during this one…
Russell Knox (41.6%) vs. Marc Leishman (58.4%)
Once again, Knox getting snubbed a bit by the model; this feels low.
Bryson DeChambeau (54.5%) vs. Marc Leishman (45.5%)
Really strong matchup between two very solid players. Buckle up.
Russell Knox (51.6%) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (48.4%)
Knox is very consistent, which is usually tough to overcome in this format.
GROUP 7
Francesco Molinari (68.4%) vs. Satoshi Kodaira (31.6%)
Using our model, Kodaira was easily the lowest-rated player in the field.
Thorbjorn Olesen (40%) vs. Webb Simpson (60%)
Since this event moved to Austin, Simpson is 1-4-1.
Francesco Molinari (64.2%) vs. Thorbjorn Olesen (35.8%)
Besides his API victory, Molinari doesn't have a top-10 since last September.
Satoshi Kodaira (35.6%) vs. Webb Simpson (64.4%)
In his first Match Play start last year, Kodaira went 0-3-0.
Francesco Molinari (54.4%) vs. Webb Simpson (45.6%)
Expect plenty of greens in reg and not too many mistakes in this one.
Satoshi Kodaira (45.3%) vs. Thorbjorn Olesen (54.7%)
Olesen only has one finish inside the top-40 in his last seven starts.
GROUP 8
Jon Rahm (65.3%) vs. Siwoo Kim (34.7%)
After going 6-1-0 his first year in this event, Rahm was 0-2-1 last year.
J.B. Holmes (40.4%) vs. Matt Kuchar (59.6%)
Kuchar will be hitting first into most greens, but that shouldn't bother him.
Jon Rahm (66.1%) vs. J.B. Holmes (33.9%)
If Holmes slow-plays him, it's not hard to see Rahm getting frustrated here.
Siwoo Kim (41.2%) vs. Matt Kuchar (58.8%)
Since the move to Austin, Kuchar owns a robust 5-3-3 match record.
Jon Rahm (56.9%) vs. Matt Kuchar (43.1%)
Don't be surprised if this match determines who advances out of this group.
Siwoo Kim (50.9%) vs. J.B. Holmes (49.1%)
Very close numbers between the underdogs in this group.
GROUP 9
Xander Schauffele (57.6%) vs. Lee Westwood (42.4%)
X-man has made a habit of playing his best golf against the best fields.
Tyrrell Hatton (41.9%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (58.1%)
When they played here two years ago, RCB won, 2 and 1.
Xander Schauffele (60.4%) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (39.6%)
Advantage for Schauffele, who went 2-1-0 in his first Match Play last year.
Lee Westwood (44.7%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (55.3%)
In his first match in this event, Westwood lost to Tiger Woods — 21 years ago.
Xander Schauffele (52.3%) vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello (47.7%)
Projections show only a slight advantage for Schauffele in this one.
Lee Westwood (52.9%) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (47.1%)
Interesting: The higher-ranked Westwood owns a better chance against Hatton.
GROUP 10
Paul Casey (62.5%) vs. Abraham Ancer (37.5%)
We'll see how much Casey has left in the tank after Sunday's victory.
Charles Howell III (47.8%) vs. Cameron Smith (52.2%)
Maybe not the biggest names, but one of the best Day 1 matches on the board.
Paul Casey (57.6%) vs. Charles Howell III (42.4%)
Two of the game's nicer dudes, but they own killer instincts deep inside.
Abraham Ancer (42.8%) vs. Cameron Smith (57.2%)
Couple of crafty guys with short irons and wedges in their hands.
Paul Casey (55.5%) vs. Cameron Smith (44.5%)
Casey won his first two matches last year, but was ousted from the tourney Friday.
Abraham Ancer (44.9%) vs. Charles Howell III (55.1%)
CH3 is fresh off a T-35 — his worst result since last fall.
GROUP 11
Tommy Fleetwood (58.8%) vs. Byeong Hun An (41.2%)
It's not a "Group of Death," but top-ranked Fleetwood should have his hands full.
Kyle Stanley (36.9%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (63.1%)
Solid weekend at Innisbrook should have Oosty ready for this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (67.7%) vs. Kyle Stanley (32.3%)
It's been rough for Stanley lately, with six MCs in his last seven starts.
Byeong Hun An (46.3%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (53.7%)
The first year this event moved to Austin, Oosty reached the final.
Tommy Fleetwood (55.1%) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (44.9%)
This match should feature what you might call "a ball-striker's fiesta."
Byeong Hun An (59.6%) vs. Kyle Stanley (40.4%)
Not good for Stanley that the player ranked just above him is favored so heavily.
GROUP 12
Jason Day (59.7%) vs. Jim Furyk (40.3%)
Past champion could have his hands full with a resurgent Furyk.
Henrik Stenson (50.5%) vs. Phil Mickelson (49.5%)
Royal Troon all over again: Stenson held a slight advantage that day, too.
Jason Day (56.1%) vs. Henrik Stenson (43.9%)
Another one of the must-see round-robin matches.
Jim Furyk (46.8%) vs. Phil Mickelson (53.2%)
You just know Phil doesn't want to lose to his own Ryder Cup captain.
Jason Day (56.6%) vs. Phil Mickelson (43.4%)
Not many matches this week will have a higher Q-rating.
Jim Furyk (46.3%) vs. Henrik Stenson (53.7%)
The last time Furyk saw Stenson, he was beating up on his team in Paris.
GROUP 13
Tiger Woods (63.8%) vs. Aaron Wise (36.2%)
Add another name to the growing list of players competing with TW for the first time.
Brandt Snedeker (43.7%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (56.3%)
Cantlay could be a major X-factor this week — if he plays up to his talent level.
Tiger Woods (59.5%) vs. Brandt Snedeker (40.5%)
Pretty amazing: Tiger hasn't played this tournament in six full years.
Aaron Wise (39.3%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (60.7%)
Tough year so far for Wise, with four MCs in seven starts.
Tiger Woods (53.3%) vs. Patrick Cantlay (46.7%)
Great test for Cantlay, to see what he's got and how he handles the pressure.
Aaron Wise (45.5%) vs. Brandt Snedeker (54.5%)
Two years ago, Sneds went 2-1-0 in round-robin matches, but didn't advance.
GROUP 14
Tony Finau (59.4%) vs. Keith Mitchell (40.6%)
Just a couple of confident dudes who can mash the ball when they need to.
Kevin Kisner (44.1%) vs. Ian Poulter (55.9%)
More appointment viewing: One of the best matchups of the first three days.
Tony Finau (56.3%) vs. Kevin Kisner (43.7%)
In his last 10 matches in this event, Kisner is 7-1-2.
Keith Mitchell (41.1%) vs. Ian Poulter (58.9%)
Poulter said that before groups were made, Mitchell asked for his match-play secrets.
Tony Finau (50.5%) vs. Ian Poulter (49.5%)
Projections show a near-dead-even match between the top seeds in this group.
Keith Mitchell (46.8%) vs. Kevin Kisner (53.2%)
Expect Kisner to have an advantage in experience — and expect him to use it.
GROUP 15
Bubba Watson (62.2%) vs. Kevin Na (37.8%)
The defending champion is coming off another strong weekend in Tampa.
Billy Horschel (47.8%) vs. Jordan Spieth (52.2%)
One more week for Spieth to find his game before the upcoming Masters.
Bubba Watson (54.3%) vs. Billy Horschel (45.7%)
You can see one of them getting annoyed by the other; just not sure which is which.
Kevin Na (39.8%) vs. Jordan Spieth (60.2%)
Fresh off another injury WD, gotta wonder if Na is currently at full health.
Bubba Watson (52.1%) vs. Jordan Spieth (47.9%)
Fun match if they both bring their A games — or at least their B-minus games.
Kevin Na (42%) vs. Billy Horschel (58%)
Horschel is a model of consistency, with no MCs since last summer.
GROUP 16
Patrick Reed (63.7%) vs. Andrew Putnam (36.3%)
Working with new swing coach David Leadbetter might take some time for Reed.
Shane Lowry (39.2%) vs. Sergio Garcia (60.8%)
Two years ago, they halved their match in this event.
Patrick Reed (60.4%) vs. Shane Lowry (39.6%)
Reed has been struggling … but Lowry has been struggling even more.
Andrew Putnam (35.9%) vs. Sergio Garcia (64.1%)
Since this event moved to his adopted home in Austin, Garcia is 6-3-2.
Patrick Reed (49.6%) vs. Sergio Garcia (50.4%)
The second-ranked player in this group, our model gives the edge to Sergio.
Andrew Putnam (46.5%) vs. Shane Lowry (53.5%)
After a hot start, Putnam has struggled to get going lately.
