Sobel’s WGC-Match Play Mega Preview: Toughest Groups, Upsets, Projected Winners, More

You’ve been watching the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. You filled out brackets. You even spent hours clicking through our bracket simulator, memorizing the percentages for every team against every potential opponent.

And at some point, it might’ve dawned on you: Can’t we use a similar model for other sports?

The answer is yes. We absolutely can.

There are few other sporting events – and certainly no other golf tournaments – which mimic the NCAA’s survive and advance philosophy like this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play Championship.

Even though the format changed four years ago from single-elimination to a three-match round-robin within each group, the basic tenets of the tourney remain the same. The leading point-getter within each of the four-man groups moves on to the Sweet 16. From there, the players are bracketed just like the hoops tourney.

Win and advance, lose and go home.

It’s pretty exciting stuff – and during this frenzied time of year, it’s extremely relevant considering we’ve all been staring at brackets for the past week anyway.

Just like the NCAA tourney, we can predict the win-percentage probability of every potential outcome at the Match Play. Whether it’s a player winning his first match on Wednesday or taking the whole thing on Sunday afternoon, there’s a pre-tourney number affixed to all of it.

And so, let me present the Action Network Match Play Projections, created by our analytics team to offer specific probabilities throughout this entire week.

Play around with it. Click through it for hours. Memorize those percentages like you did for the hoops tourney.

Below are the numbers straight from our model for this event.

The rating will show the strength of any specific four-man group – and the rank next to it details how that foursome stacks up against the others.

The Best Bet is the round-robin match in each group which offers the most lopsided probability in one player’s favor.

The Upset Special is the round-robin match in each group in which the lower-ranked player has the greatest probability of winning.

And the Winner shows exactly what you’d think – the probability for each player to advance to the next round.

Let’s get to those 16 groups – and what our model tells us has the best chance of happening in each one of ‘em.

Group 1: Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Branden Grace, Chez Reavie

• Group difficulty: 3rd out of 16
• Best bet: Dustin Johnson (74.2%) over Chez Reavie
• Upset Special: Chez Reavie (47%) over Branden Grace
• Projected winner: Dustin Johnson (46.6%)

Projections show that DJ owns just under a 50-50 chance of advancing out of this group, which is ranked behind only two others in terms of difficulty. Does that mean it'll be difficult to advance, or is it difficult for the simple reason that the world's No. 1-ranked player is part of it? Based on the numbers, mostly the latter.

Group 2: Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Eddie Pepperell, Emiliano Grillo

• Group difficulty: 7th out of 16
• Best bet: Justin Rose (64.7%) over Emiliano Grillo
• Upset special: Emiliano Grillo (49%) over Eddie Pepperell
• Projected winner: Justin Rose (35.6%)

Despite being the world's second-ranked player, Rose owns a smaller probability of advancing than any other player in the top-five. Much of that has to do with strength on the back end of this draw, with Grillo and Pepperell nearly identical in the projections.

Group 3: Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren, Haotong Li, Tom Lewis

• Group difficulty: 15th out of 16
• Best bet: Brooks Koepka (67.1%) over Tom Lewis
• Upset special: Haotong Li (48.4%) over Alex Noren
• Projected winner: Brooks Koepka (40.7%)

Noren's season-long strokes gained numbers are NSFW, Li has MC'd in two straight big-time U.S.-based events and Lewis owns virtually no experience in this format — all of which results in Koepka not only being the favorite, but this group lagging near the bottom in terms of difficulty.

In a competition like this, the draw plays a huge role and only a few golfers saw their chances of winning increase more post-draw than Koepka did.

Group 4: Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Harding, Luke List

• Group difficulty: 4th out of 16
• Best bet: Rory McIlroy (72.4%) over Justin Harding
• Upset special: Luke List (50%) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Projected winner: Rory McIlroy (45.2%)

This foursome is quite similar to Group 1, with a dominant, intimidating, big-hitting stud in the top spot, expected to advance by a large margin over the next-closest player. Perhaps the biggest surprise here lies in that upset special, where List is projected as the 69th-ranked List is virtually running level with the 34th-ranked Fitzpatrick.

Group 5: Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Matt Wallace, Lucas Bjerregaard

• Group difficulty: 2nd out of 16
• Best bet: Justin Thomas (69.1%) over Lucas Bjerregaard
• Upset special: Matt Wallace (48%) over Keegan Bradley
• Projected winner: Justin Thomas (41.9%)

Upon first glance, the naked eye might've ranked this group somewhere in the bottom half, but that would be a disservice to the last three players listed, as the projections prove. Bradley has been remarkably consistent, Wallace seems to contend in every event he plays and Bjerregaard is an up-and-comer whose European record is strong. Oh, and then there's JT, who could be ripe for a victory this week.

Group 6: Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Russell Knox

• Group difficulty: 10th out of 16
• Best bet: Bryson DeChambeau (64.2%) over Kiradech Aphibarnrat
• Upset special: Russell Knox (51.6%) over Kiradech Aphibarnrat
• Projected winner: Bryson DeChambeau (35.9%)

Interesting group, as Leishman rates nearly as high as the higher-ranked DeChambeau, and Knox actually rates higher than the higher-ranked Aphibarnrat. Expect some really good matches here, with Leishman making a serious run at advancing.

Group 7: Francesco Molinari, Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Satoshi Kodaira

• Group difficulty: 16th out of 16
• Best bet: Francesco Molinari (68.4%) over Satoshi Kodaira
• Upset special: Webb Simpson (45.6%) over Francesco Molinari
• Projected winner: Francesco Molinari (38.1%)

Consider this an instance where the whole might be less than the sum of its parts. Molinari is a stud who's coming off a win at Bay Hill just a few weeks ago, and Simpson and Olesen are each solid, but Kodaira is bringing down the bunch as the lowest-rated player in this week's field, resulting in the group similarly being the lowest-rated.

Like Koepka, Molinari saw his chances of winning this group jump according to our ratings thanks to an easy draw.

Group 8: Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, J.B. Holmes, Si Woo Kim

• Group difficulty: 12th out of 16
• Best bet: Jon Rahm (66.1%) over J.B. Holmes
• Upset special: Si Woo Kim (50.1%) over J.B. Holmes
• Projected winner: Jon Rahm (38.9%)

This group could come down to the match between its two top-ranked players, Rahm and Kuchar. In that match, the projection shows Rahm to be a 56.9% favorite, holding a slight advantage over a player who's enjoyed a career resurgence this season.

Group 9: Xander Schauffele, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tyrrell Hatton, Lee Westwood

• Group difficulty: 9th out of 16
• Best bet: Xander Schauffele (60.4%) over Tyrrell Hatton
• Upset special: Rafa Cabrera Bello (47.7%) over Xander Schauffele
• Projected winner: Xander Schauffele (31.2%)

Another of the more balanced groups here, as RCB is close to a 50-50 probability of beating the higher-ranked Schauffele and Westwood actually places higher on the model than Hatton. X-man is the highest-ranked player with less than a one-third chance of reaching the Round of 16.

Group 10: Paul Casey, Cameron Smith, Charles Howell III, Abraham Ancer

• Group difficulty: 6th out 16
• Best bet: Paul Casey (62.5%) over Abraham Ancer
• Upset special: Charles Howell III (47.8%) over Cameron Smith
• Projected winner: Paul Casey (34.1%)

The first of two groups of ball-strikers in a row, led by the recent Valspar Championship winner in Casey. Perhaps the match to watch here, though, will be between Smith and CH3, who are showing as nearly even on the projection.

Group 11: Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Kyle Stanley, Byeong Hun An

• Group difficulty: 8th out of 16
• Best bet: Tommy Fleetwood (67.7%) over Kyle Stanley
• Upset special: Byeong Hun An (59.6%) over Kyle Stanley
• Projected winner: Tommy Fleetwood (35.2%)

More ball-strikers in this one, especially if Stanley — who's had very little form all year — can regain something this week. The numbers show him as a whipping boy against three top-flight players, while Fleetwood holds a small advantage to advance.

Group 12: Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk

• Group difficulty: 1st out of 16
• Best bet: Jason Day (59.7%) over Jim Furyk
• Upset special: Henrik Stenson (50.5%) over Phil Mickelson
• Projected winner: Jason Day (32.7%)

Every group event — from the World Cup to a small region within the NCAA basketball tourney — has a "Group of Death" and this is the one for the Match Play this week. It's also one instance where the eyeball test and the numbers were in perfect agreement, as a simple glance at these four major champions confirms what the projections tell us — and vice versa.

Group 13: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, Aaron Wise

• Group difficulty: 11th out of 16
• Best bet: Tiger Woods (63.8%) over Aaron Wise
• Upset special: Patrick Cantlay (46.7%) over Tiger Woods
• Projected winner: Tiger Woods (33.7%)

There was a time, even just 6 or 7 years ago, when Woods would have been a prohibitive favorite against these three opponents. He's still the fave, but it's hardly a landslide. Woods owns a 53.3% chance of beating Cantlay, 59.5% over Snedeker and 63.8 against Wise.

Group 14: Tony Finau, Ian Poulter, Kevin Kisner, Keith Mitchell

• Group difficulty: 5th out of 16
• Best bet: Tony Finau (59.4%) over Keith Mitchell
• Upset special: Ian Poulter (49.5%) over Tony Finau
• Projected winner: Tony Finau (29.8%)

It doesn't get much closer between two players at the top of a group, as Finau and Poulter are separated by less than one percentage point in the probability model to advance from this draw. While Finau owns the obvious talent, Poulter has plenty of experience in this format.

Group 15: Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, Kevin Na

• Group difficulty: 13th out of 16
• Best bet: Bubba Watson (62.2%) over Kevin Na
• Upset special: Jordan Spieth (47.9%) over Bubba Watson
• Projected winner: Bubba Watson (32.0%)

Kind of a strange group here. You've got the defending champ in Watson, who said Sunday that he's lobbied for no match-play event on the PGA Tour; a three-time major winner in Spieth, who has looked lost for most of this year; and Na, who withdrew last week and not for the first time this year. And then there's Horschel, who's been steady all season.

Group 16: Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Andrew Putnam

• Group difficulty: 14th out of 16
• Best bet: Sergio Garcia (64.1%) over Andrew Putnam
• Upset special: Sergio Garcia (50.4%) over Patrick Reed
• Projected winner: Sergio Garcia (34.1%)

It took until the final group, but we finally have a player who isn't the highest-ranked in his foursome that rates as the top choice in the model. Garcia holds a slight probability advantage over Reed here, in what turned out to be one of the lowest-rated groups. In fact, nobody benefited from his draw more than Sergio, according to our projections.