WGC-Match Play Projections: Chances for Each Golfer to Win Group, Make Final 4, More

One of the most unique events on the golf calendar is here.

The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play will feature 64 of the best players in the world playing one-on-one matches until a lone winner is crowned at the end.

If you're unfamiliar, here are some details on the format:

• Players are split up into 16 groups. One of the top 16 players is assigned to each group, while the remaining three players are chosen at random from different segments of the field before the tournament begins. (That random drawing took place on Monday night.)
• The first three days feature round-robin matches between the four players in each group.
• The 16 winners of the groups advance to a knockout stage, and from there, it's set up like your typical bracket

WGC-MATCH PLAY PROJECTIONS, CHANCES, ODDS

Some of our golf experts here at The Action Network combined to create a projections model that powers what's below: a complete breakdown of each player's chances to advance out of his group, make the Final 4, and win the tournament.

Be sure to consult all of these numbers before filling out your bracket and placing your wagers. Good luck!

There's a full sortable table at the bottom of this story.

GROUP 1

#1 Dustin Johnson

• Odds to advance: 46.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 21.6%
• Odds to win: 8.3%

#24 Hideki Matsuyama

• Odds to advance: 24.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.7%
• Odds to win: 1.4%

#42 Branden Grace

• Odds to advance: 15.5%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.7%
• Odds to win: 0.5%

#56 Chez Reavie

• Odds to advance: 13.2%
• Odds to make Final 4: 1.9%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

GROUP 2

#2 Justin Rose

• Odds to advance: 35.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 12.9%
• Odds to win: 3.7%

#23 Gary Woodland

• Odds to advance: 28.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.1%
• Odds to win: 1.4%

#36 Eddie Pepperell

• Odds to advance: 19.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.6%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

#54 Emiliano Grillo

• Odds to advance: 15.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.4%
• Odds to win: 0.5%

GROUP 3

#3 Brooks Koepka

• Odds to advance: 40.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 12.2%
• Odds to win: 3.3%

#28 Alex Noren

• Odds to advance: 23.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.7%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

#38 Haotong Li

• Odds to advance: 21.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.9%
• Odds to win: 0.7%

#61 Tom Lewis

• Odds to advance: 14.5%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.3%
• Odds to win: 0.2%

GROUP 4

#4 Rory McIlroy

• Odds to advance: 45.2%
• Odds to make Final 4: 17.7%
• Odds to win: 6.8%

#66 Luke List

• Odds to advance: 20.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.5%
• Odds to win: 0.8%

#34 Matthew Fitzpatrick

• Odds to advance: 19.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.2%
• Odds to win: 0.9%

#48 Justin Harding

• Odds to advance: 14.3%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.5%
• Odds to win: 0.3%

GROUP 5

#5 Justin Thomas

• Odds to advance: 41.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 14.6%
• Odds to win: 5.5%

#33 Keegan Bradley

• Odds to advance: 22.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.9%
• Odds to win: 1.3%

#35 Matt Wallace

• Odds to advance: 20.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.6%
• Odds to win: 0.9%

#52 Lucas Bjerregaard

• Odds to advance: 14.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.5%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

GROUP 6

#6 Bryson DeChambeau

• Odds to advance: 35.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 10.4%
• Odds to win: 3.0%

#18 Marc Leishman

• Odds to advance: 27.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.4%
• Odds to win: 2.1%

#62 Russell Knox

• Odds to advance: 18.5%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.4%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

#41 Kiradech Aphibarnrat

• Odds to advance: 18.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.1%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

GROUP 7

#7 Francesco Molinari

• Odds to advance: 38.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 10.6%
• Odds to win: 3.0%

#20 Webb Simpson

• Odds to advance: 30.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.8%
• Odds to win: 1.6%

#49 Thorbjorn Olesen

• Odds to advance: 18.4%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.5%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

#65 Satoshi Kodaira

• Odds to advance: 12.8%
• Odds to make Final 4: 1.7%
• Odds to win: 0.2%

GROUP 8

#10 Jon Rahm

• Odds to advance: 38.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 12.3%
• Odds to win: 2.9%

#22 Matt Kuchar

• Odds to advance: 28.3%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.6%
• Odds to win: 1.5%

#55 Siwoo Kim

• Odds to advance: 17.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.9%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

#45 J.B. Holmes

• Odds to advance: 15.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.8%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

GROUP 9

#9 Xander Schauffele

• Odds to advance: 31.2%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.7%
• Odds to win: 2.3%

#31 Rafa Cabrera Bello

• Odds to advance: 28.2%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.9%
• Odds to win: 1.4%

#64 Lee Westwood

• Odds to advance: 21.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.8%
• Odds to win: 0.9%

#37 Tyrrell Hatton

• Odds to advance: 18.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.3%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

GROUP 10

#10 Paul Casey

• Odds to advance: 34.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 10.6%
• Odds to win: 2.8%

#25 Cameron Smith

• Odds to advance: 26.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.4%
• Odds to win: 1.2%

#44 Charles Howell III

• Odds to advance: 22.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.3%
• Odds to win: 0.9%

#59 Abraham Ancer

• Odds to advance: 17.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.2%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

GROUP 11

#11 Tommy Fleetwood

• Odds to advance: 35.2%
• Odds to make Final 4: 11.9%
• Odds to win: 3.5%

#27 Louis Oosthuizen

• Odds to advance: 28.8%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.5%
• Odds to win: 2.0%

#51 Byeong Hun An

• Odds to advance: 22.5%
• Odds to make Final 4: 5.8%
• Odds to win: 1.1%

#43 Kyle Stanley

• Odds to advance: 13.4%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.2%
• Odds to win: 0.2%

GROUP 12

#12 Jason Day

• Odds to advance: 32.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 9.1%
• Odds to win: 2.9%

#39 Henrik Stenson

• Odds to advance: 25.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 5.5%
• Odds to win: 1.1%

#21 Phil Mickelson

• Odds to advance: 22.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.9%
• Odds to win: 1.1%

#57 Jim Furyk

• Odds to advance: 18.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.9%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

GROUP 13

#13 Tiger Woods

• Odds to advance: 33.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 8.7%
• Odds to win: 2.4%

#19 Patrick Cantlay

• Odds to advance: 29.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.5%
• Odds to win: 1.5%

#46 Brandt Snedeker

• Odds to advance: 20.4%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.5%
• Odds to win: 0.6%

#63 Aaron Wise

• Odds to advance: 16.7%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.4%
• Odds to win: 0.3%

GROUP 14

#14 Tony Finau

• Odds to advance: 29.8%
• Odds to make Final 4: 8.8%
• Odds to win: 2.1%

#32 Ian Poulter

• Odds to advance: 28.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.7%
• Odds to win: 2.1%

#50 Kevin Kisner

• Odds to advance: 22.3%
• Odds to make Final 4: 4.9%
• Odds to win: 0.9%

#58 Keith Mitchell

• Odds to advance: 18.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 3.7%
• Odds to win: 0.7%

GROUP 15

#15 Bubba Watson

• Odds to advance: 32.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 8.6%
• Odds to win: 2.2%

#30 Jordan Spieth

• Odds to advance: 28.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 7.2%
• Odds to win: 1.4%

#40 Billy Horschel

• Odds to advance: 24.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 6.0%
• Odds to win: 1.5%

#60 Kevin Na

• Odds to advance: 15.9%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.2%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

GROUP 16

#26 Sergio Garcia

• Odds to advance: 34.1%
• Odds to make Final 4: 8.0%
• Odds to win: 2.2%

#16 Patrick Reed

• Odds to advance: 32.0%
• Odds to make Final 4: 8.3%
• Odds to win: 2.3%

#47 Shane Lowry

• Odds to advance: 18.3%
• Odds to make Final 4: 2.6%
• Odds to win: 0.4%

#53 Andrew Putnam

• Odds to advance: 15.6%
• Odds to make Final 4: 1.8%
• Odds to win: 0.2%

FULL WGC-MATCH PLAY PROJECTIONS