WGC-Match Play Betting Guide: There’s Value at the Top of the Board

WGC-Match Play Betting Guide: There’s Value at the Top of the Board article feature image
Credit:

John David Mercer, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

  • The 2019 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play begins on Wednesday, March 27 at 10 a.m. ET.
  • Dustin Johnson (+1000) and Rory McIlroy (+1000) are co-favorites to win at Austin Country Club.
  • Josh Perry breaks down the field and makes the case for one of the favorites and mentions some intriguing longshot options.

We were close at the Valspar, including a couple of fourth-place finishes by Sung-Jae Im and Bubba Watson.

Perhaps if Bubba’s ball didn’t vanish in a tree, he would have been able to get up-and-down for birdie on that par 5 and qualified for a playoff with eventual champion Paul Casey. So it goes.

Either way, we move to the star-studded WGC-Match Play event at Austin Country Club.

This is the fourth year in a row that Austin CC has hosted this event and we’ve seen a pretty similar champion arise in all three instances.

Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Bubba Watson are major champions, strong off the tee and won an even within five weeks of taking home the WGC-Match Play.

Heading into this year, there are three Major champs that have picked up wins in recent weeks: Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari.

The Course

Austin Country Club measures just over 7,100 yards for a par 71. It’s an interesting match-play course that favors a strong off-the-tee game.

The main defense for this course is the wind. Texas can get breezy this time of year, which puts even more of a premium on ball-striking.

The Favorites

As usual, this is a very strong field as 64 of the top 66 players in the world rankings are competing at Austin CC. Only Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott are skipping this event.

There is no surprise at the top of the board as Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are co-favorites at +1000.

I rarely, if ever, back the favorites in a tournament but I’m starting and ending my card with Rory this week.

McIlroy hasn’t finished outside the top six in 2019, so he’s got the consistency we’re looking for in a match play event. He’s also coming in with a recent win which has also been key for previous champs here.

As far as the draw goes, McIlroy got a big break. He’ll face Matthew Fitzpatrick, Luke List and Justin Harding in the group stage. None of those three have advanced out of the group in this event in four combined tries.

Mid-Tier and Longshots

With Rory at the top of the card, there’s not much room for anything else.

If you’re looking for longer shots, Francesco Molinari and Paul Casey are both in great form and can be had for +2500.

I also like Ian Poulter in any match play event. We see it every Ryder Cup and he’s also a past champion of this tournament on a different course. The Englishman is going off at +3000 at the Westgate.

Eddie Pepperell could be an intriguing longshot play at Austin CC. Credit: Jon David Mercer, USA Today Sports.

As for longshots, I’m keeping an eye on Eddie Pepperell at +10000. He’s got a weaker draw with Justin Rose as the top seed. Rose usually doesn’t play this event and has a history of early exits. The other two players in Pepperell’s group are Gary Woodland and Emiliano Grillo. Both are solid players but neither of them is in good form at the moment.

The Card

  • Rory McIlroy +1000 (3.3 units)

Total Stake: 3.3 units

The Season: -9.585 units

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