Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/22: Can Astros, Miley Stop Healthy Yankees From Winning 8th Straight?
Photo credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wade Miley
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 22 with his model below and highlights Padres-Pirates (4:05 p.m. ET) and Astros-Yankees (7:15 p.m ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Walker Buehler was electric on Friday night, striking out 16 Rockies batters in a 4-2 win:
Walker F'n Buehler's 16Ks in 33 Seconds. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FdSpOuUA6g
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 22, 2019
This was all despite some unkind umpiring:
If you recall, Chris Sale victimized the Rockies for 17 strikeouts back in May. As a team, Colorado ranks 20th with a 20.8% team strikeout rate.
There are few pitchers as fun to watch as Buehler when he’s bringing it. His presence alone is replete with playoff intensity:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-5 against full-game moneylines and 3-2-3 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 1-1, and I finished at even money for the day.
It was a relatively neutral day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost a penny on Houston’s moneyline but gained five cents against the Tigers’ spread.
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, June 22
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Astros, Padres, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Astros, Royals, Padres and Tigers in addition to the Reds as F5 plays.
I last wrote about the Tigers’ Spencer Turnbull on June 16. I think he’s one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, and getting +150 on him in the first half against Aaron Civale, who is making his major league debut, is major value.
I’m otherwise keying in on the Astros, Reds and Padres on Saturday. Let’s take them in reverse order.
Both the Padres and Pirates have seen improved offense in June, with each scoring about 5.4 runs per game. The Pirates scored 4.9 runs per game in May, while the Padres scored less than 4.5.
After a dominant start to his career (sub 2.00 ERA through April), Chris Paddack has regressed towards league average:
Meanwhile, Chris Archer is having the worst season of his career, with his highest walk rate (4.6 BB/9) since he was in Double-A in 2011.
He owns a 5.85 ERA, 6.03 FIP and 4.84 xFIP, but his career ERA has averaged 0.2 and 0.3 runs per game higher than those respective fielding independent stats.
His average fastball velocity is down 1.7 mph from 2018, and the average exit velocity against his pitches and his xwOBA are both trending in the wrong direction:
On June 17, I made a similar comparison between the Padres’ Joey Lucchesi and the Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin.
I’m ready to keep fading Chacin for as long as the Brewers trot him out. He’s also facing the hottest team in the National League.
The Reds have won six straight after sweeping Houston and taking the first two out of a four-game set in Milwaukee.
Luis Castillo is walking too many hitters (4.52 BB/9), which is why his fielding independent metrics suggest an ERA of closer to 3.5 than 2.25, but his .235 BABIP is not far off from his career .265 mark.
His arsenal generates soft contact, with an expected .184 batting average and .281 slugging percentage — both in the top 5% among all pitchers.
Per Baseball Savant, look at how Castillo changes the eye level of hitters using his four-seam fastball and changeup with two strikes:
The result is devastating, even for same-sided hitters:
Luis Castillo, 97mph Fastball and 88mph Changeup, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/1HnLjOv4Ai
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2019
I’ll play the Reds and Padres on both the F5 and full-game moneylines.
I’m also going to be back on the Astros today, despite the Yankees’ fully loaded lineup with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton now back from injuries.
Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres each homered for the third game in a row on Friday, as the Yankees won their seventh straight affair.
They’ll also be going to their most consistent arm, Masahiro Tanaka, who is in the midst of his best season since 2016 and coming off a complete game shutout.
Wade Miley has been an extremely profitable pitcher to back since he increased his cutter usage with the Brewers in 2018. A $100 bettor would be 22-9 (+$951, 31% ROI) if they backed Miley in all of his starts over the past two seasons.
Miley has pitched to a .278 xwOBA in 2019. It was .307 last season.
Tanaka has pitched to a .291 xwOBA in 2019. It was .306 last season.
There isn’t much of a gap between these two pitchers on paper. The Yankees lineup is certainly terrifying with all of their powerful righty bats, but they will also likely be without the services of Aroldis Chapman in their bullpen today.
The flame-throwing Cuban has pitched three out of four days, including two days in a row, though he did throw only seven pitches to seal what should have been a blowout win on Thursday.
There is clear value on Houston at such a big price; I’m just currently undecided as to whether I will play their F5 moneyline, too.
Bets (So Far) for June 22
- Cincinnati Reds (+100) F5 Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (-106) Game Moneyline
- Detroit Tigers (+150) F5 Moneyline
- Houston Astros (+153) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-125) F5 Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-120) Game Moneyline
- Over 8.5 (-115), New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/22
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.