Wednesday did not go our way, going 0-4 on the picks to continue what's been a very rough season.
Let's see if we can turn it around on Thursday, as I have three picks across the smaller slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 22, 2025
Angels vs. Athletics NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Luis Severino
This game has a 10.5-run total — these two have averaged 11 runs per game in this series.
Frustratingly, those have not always come in the first inning.
However, when the total is this high, there's likely to be a first-inning run, especially given the strength of the Athletics lineup against left-handed pitching.
Four of the first five A's batters have extreme splits against southpaws, and Tyler Anderson has a 6.87 ERA his first time through the order.
The A's are the stronger side of this projection, but the Angels have enough equity to make the full-game YRFI a better value.
Guardians vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty's 4.44 ERA is not what the Tigers hoped for when they brought him back, but he hasn't been bad early in games.
His first-time-through-the-order xFIP is below 3.00, and his ERA is also slightly lower (3.60) early in games.
Tanner Bibee has similar splits, and we have an eight-run total in the game.
The weather in Detroit is also pretty harsh for hitters, with temperatures in the low 50s and some light rain expected throughout the game.
They should be able to play without issue, but it probably doesn't help offenses here.
Nationals vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Trevor Williams
James Wood and CJ Abrams, Washington's 1-2 combo at the top of the order, make the Nationals a YRFI threat in most matchups.
Both players have wRC+ marks over 150 on the season, putting them in the top 20 of all qualified hitters.
That's a powerful combination against a pitcher like AJ Smith-Shawver, whose 4.88 xERA is more than double his actual ERA and also has a 4.17 first-time-through-the-order xFIP,
Trevor Williams, whose first-time-through-the-order ERA is on the wrong side of seven, has struggled against lefties. They have a .433 wOBA against him this season, with righties at just .224.
With two lefties in the Braves' top three hitters, they have a solid chance of getting to him tonight.
