We don't have a full slate in the MLB on Thursday, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had in the sport.
Let's stop wasting time and dig right into today's MLB best bets, which include prop picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Tigers, Orioles vs. Red Sox and Mariners vs. Astros.
Find all of our Thursday MLB best bets — and a parlay of all our picks — below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Guardians vs Tigers Best Bet: Don't Fade This System
By Bet Labs
The "Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams" system suggests betting the under when two winning MLB teams face off, especially if 66% or more of the bets are on the over.
This contrarian strategy has yielded a 53% win rate historically, making it a solid system.
At the time of writing, the Guardians vs. Tigers over (7.5) is receiving 83% of the bets. Both teams are also above .500, therefore, the system flags the under, making it a solid strategy for your MLB betting card on Thursday.
Pick: Under 7.5
Orioles vs Red Sox Best Bet: Wind to be Factor
By Bet Labs
Fenway Park is traditionally a hitter-friendly ball park, but when wind blows inward, it significantly suppresses offensive output — particularly fly balls that would otherwise clear the Green Monster or drop in for extra-base hits.
In games played at Fenway with inward wind conditions, both regular season and postseason data show that the totals are often set too high. That creates a profitable contrarian angle, so we can take advantage of this weather-based edge, which isn't always fully baked into the market.
With a wind advisory coming into play by 2 p.m. ET in Boston, this could be a good chance to jump on this under, especially if the New England rain holds off.
Pick: Under 8
Derek Carty's Mariners vs Astros Pick: Target This Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.44 walks for Dylan Moore, and oddsmakers are implying 0.32 walks, so I believe there's value here.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 36% of the time resulting in a 29% ROI with expected value of $28.97 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Dylan Moore Over 0.5 Hitter Walks (+250)
