The Boston Red Sox (25-25) host the Baltimore Orioles (16-32) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Fresh off snapping an eight-game losing streak, the Orioles open up a series against the rival Red Sox.
Find my Orioles vs Red Sox prediction and preview for Thursday below.
My Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
Orioles vs Red Sox picks: Over 8.5
My Orioles vs Red Sox best bet is the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds, Spread
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -124 / +102 | -104 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -124 / +102 | -112 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cade Povich (BAL) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 5.23 / 5.84 | ERA /xERA | 7.08 / 5.31 |
| 4.78 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 5.50 / 4.22 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 43.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 104 | Location+ | 104 |
My Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Preview
Baltimore Orioles
Cade Povich struggled in last year’s rookie campaign, posting a 3-9 record with a 5.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 16 starts. His sophomore effort has been even worse.
Through eight starts this season, Povich is 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that this downward trend is likely to continue.
The former third-round draft pick possesses a 5.84 xERA and .293 xBA. Povich also ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Povich is 0-2 through three career starts against Boston, posting a 5.28 ERA over that stretch.
Boston Red Sox
As poorly as Povich profiles for this matchup, Lucas Giolito may be even worse. The right-hander tremendously began his career before spiraling downward in 2022 and 2023.
He posted an ERA north of 4.85 in each of those two seasons. Giolito then missed all of 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery on his throwing arm.
Predictably, he has not miraculously found his form again following the extended absence. Through four starts this year, Giolito has a 7.08 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
Like Povich, Giolito’s analytics suggest that the rest of the year will go poorly. He ranks in the 13th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity.
Orioles vs Red Sox Predictions, Betting Analysis
Baltimore also has one of the worst bullpens in baseball. This year, its relief staff ranks 20th or lower in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
The combination of Povich and Baltimore’s bullpen should present an abundance of opportunities for Boston’s lineup to generate runs. The Red Sox rank in the top seven in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
On the other hand, this current Orioles roster boasts a .403 slugging percentage through 70 combined plate appearances against Giolito.
Pick: Over 8.5
