MLB Sharp Betting Picks: Line Dropping on Brewers vs. Cubs (Thursday, August 13)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich.
There’s not a whole lot going on in Major League Baseball today. As most teams have the day off in preparation for the weekend, only six games — one of which is already underway — are slated for Thursday.
Two of those games come out of the NL Central, and those games also happen to be the ones getting hit hardest by sharp bettors.
Let’s take a look.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Sharp Betting Pick
|Pirates Odds||+148 [Bet Now]|
|Reds Odds||-175 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9 (-103/-120) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||5:10 p.m. ET|
Odds as of 3 p.m. ET via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.
At 8-10, the Reds haven’t been the sleeping giants in this division that many thought they’d be before the season — at least not yet. But they’ve certainly looked better than the 3-13 Pirates …
As a result, it was never a question of which team would be favored in this game, but rather by how much. And based on how sharp bettors reacted to the early line, it seems as though oddsmakers may have initially given the Reds too much credit.
The opening number at Parx put the Reds at -190, a number that’s since come down to -175. But that’s not because bettors have been rushing to bet the three-win Pirates. In fact, only 23% of moneyline tickets have landed on Pittsburgh, so why the line drop?
As you could’ve probably guessed, that 23% minority has consisted of some wagers from respected bettors (the sharps), who have the ability to cause sportsbooks to rethink their numbers.
Three Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered on the Pirates, confirming the professional backing of the underdogs.
Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +163 to +148) [In PA? Bet the Pirates at +178 with a 20% profit boost at Parx]
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Sharp Betting Pick
|Brewers Odds||+155 [Bet Now]|
|Cubs Odds||-177 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-108/-110) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||7:15 p.m. ET|
A similar situation is taking place here, as the Brewers will have to take their 7-9 record to Wrigley to face the 12-3 Cubs.
Once again, it was never a matter of whether the Cubs would be favored, but by how much. And once again, sharps have made it clear that they thought the initial line was too high.
The Cubs opened at -182 last night, and have been on the receiving end of 68% of the bets in this game. By the morning, they were up to -190, and even reached -195 at BetRivers for a short time. That was a bit too much for the pros to pass up.
Since the late morning, three more SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the Brewers (two at +165, one at +163), convincing oddsmakers to bring this line back, dropping it even further than the initial opener.
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +165 to +155) [Bet now at BetRivers.]