All 30 MLB teams are in action today, giving us plenty of opportunities to find first inning values.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Monday, July 28.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — July 28, 2025
Twins vs. Red Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Richard Fitts vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson
We've got a 9.5-run total in Minnesota tonight, and Target Field is a top-five hitters park with solid hitting weather thanks to the heat and humidity.
It will likely be an uphill battle for both pitching staffs the entire game, and neither Fitts nor Woods-Richardson is an especially fast starter.
The former has a 5.12 xFIP his first time through the order, with the latter at 4.71.
Byron Buxton likely missing the game for Minnesota weakens the top of their lineup a bit, but we still have enough strong bats at the top of both orders to justify the YRFI under these circumstances.
Brewers vs. Cubs NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Jacob Misiorowski
The only thing keeping Jacob Misiorowski from Paul Skenes levels of NRFI success is the fact that he's attached to a much better offense.
The rookie phenom has allowed just one run his first time through the order in his six starts, a Shohei Ohtani solo home run.
Fortunately, he's got a very strong pitcher opposite him this time in Matthew Boyd.
The Cubs' lefty has an excellent 2.20 overall ERA on the season, and that mark drops to 1.53 his first time through the order.
With the Brewers a roughly league-average offense against lefties, that's enough to lay the heavy juice.
Athletics vs. Mariners NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. JP Sears
Normally, the relevant splits I look at for these bets is the ratio of a pitcher's first time through the order performance compared to their overall numbers. Not so much this time.
That's because Park Factor is a major issue here, as the visiting Mariners play home games in the best pitcher's park in baseball, but are traveling to the second-best hitters part tonight.
Seattle starter Luis Castillo has a 2.29 ERA at home but 4.74 road mark — and most of his road games are played in better conditions than he has tonight. A's lefty JP Sears has a 5.61 ERA at Sutter Health field.
With both offenses strong at the top and solid hitting weather, everything is pointing the same direction.
I wouldn't lay the heavy juice on this line at most other sportsbooks, but the -130 at Caesars is a solid value.
