For Monday, July 28, I'm on four MLB home run props: Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, Julio Rodriguez and Lawrence Butler.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, July 28
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 28
Gunnar Henderson (+425)
vs. Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I'm targeting Baltimore's lefties, as the spot and odds are far too good. Opposing pitcher Chris Bassitt has been better this season, but he's still allowing above-average homers to lefties (1.38 HR/9), and has been one of the best matchups for lefty power over the past two years.
Baltimore is tied for the best ballpark for lefty power over the past three seasons, and it has been by far the best ballpark for lefty power this season. The weather should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the mid-90s during the game. Gunnar Henderson hasn't been the same hitter this season, but his underlying numbers are still good. I have the true odds here around 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Ketel Marte (+400)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Troy Melton)
We don't have a big sample size of opposing pitcher Troy Melton in the Majors, but he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
The weather in Detroit should be slightly below average for homers with temperatures near 90 degrees, but wind blowing in at 8 mph. Ketel Marte has been one of the best home-run hitters in the league since the beginning of last season as he's hit 56 homers in his past 210 games and has great underlying numbers this season. I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Julio Rodriguez (+320)
at Athletics (SP: LHP JP Sears)
Julio Rodriguez has turned things around recently, hitting four homers over the past four days and seven over the past three weeks. This spot is great as he's going up against JP Sears, who has given up a massive 1.90 HR/9 on the season to righties. The weather in Sacramento should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 8 mph. I have the true odds here around +250, making this a great bet.
Lawrence Butler (+475)
vs Mariners (SP: RHP Luis Castillo)
I'm going hard on the A's lefties as this spot is far too good. Luis Castillo isn't a bad pitcher, but he's struggled with lefty power in his career (1.37 HR/9), and even though he's been better this season (1.01 HR/9), he's due for some regression with an 8.7% HR/FB rate.
The weather should be great for hitting in Sacramento, with temperatures in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 8 mph. Butler has been a solid power bat since the beginning of last season, hitting 37 homers in his past 228 games. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
