The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets on Sunday, July 27, 2025. First pitch for Sunday Night Baseball from Oracle Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Mets are slight favorites to extend their winning streak to seven games on this week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball.
Kodai Senga (1.79 ERA, 80 2/3 IP) will look to bounce back after a shaky outing last Monday, while the Giants will use Matt Gage (0.00 ERA, 9 and 2/3 IP) to open up a bullpen game.
Find my Sunday Night Baseball betting preview and Mets vs Giants prediction below.
My Mets vs Giants Prediction
- Mets vs Giants picks: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150, DraftKings, Play to +140)
My Mets vs Giants best bet is on Rafael Devers to get over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -110o / -110u | -122 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8 -110o / -110u | +101 |
Mets vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) | Stat | LHP Matt Gage (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 1.79 / 3.36 | ERA / xERA | 0.00 / 2.37 |
| 3.31 / 4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 2.57 / 4.11 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 13.1 | K-BB% | 10.3 |
| 47.6 | GB% | 39.3 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 96 | Location+ | 91 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Giants Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Senga a Key Piece
The Mets are currently priced as the fifth favorite to win the World Series this season at +1000, a price that has ticked down thanks to their six-game winning streak, which has them back on top of the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the NL East.
New York's starting rotation has surprised with the third-lowest ERA in baseball, but the team still needs Senga to remain healthy and in strong form to be viewed as a true World Series contender.
Senga returned from a hamstring strain on July 11th and was true to form in allowing zero earned runs across four innings of work.
He struggled mightily in his first start since the All-Star break on Monday, allowing four earned runs while only managing to record nine outs. Only 39 of his 73 pitches were strikes, and his average fastball velocity was down 1 MPH from his season average.
Senga has outperformed his xERA by a significant margin this season, which has been the case in each of his first three MLB seasons. He holds an xERA of 3.36 and xFIP of 4.00 this season, but has managed to strand 86.5% of baserunners. He's been hard-hit 39.8% of the time, and his strikeout minus walk rate has plummeted to 13.1%.
Senga's pitch metrics also suggest he is pitching at a much lower level than last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 94 and a Pitching+ rating of 94.
Mets relievers have struggled to an ERA of 4.93 over the last 30 days and have allowed a batting average of .255 in that span.
New York's bullpen enters this matchup in good shape, as only Rico Garcia and Huascar Brazoban have thrown over 20 pitches in the last three days.
The Mets have been underperforming offensively over the last 30 days. They hold a wRC+ of 96 and have slugged .383. They have struggled with runners in scoring position in that span, but their league-leading hard-hit rate and 12th-ranked BB/K ratio suggest that their offensive process has still been strong.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Need Devers To Step Up
The Giants have played to a record of just 2-8 in their last ten games and are now two games back of the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot. On the day of the trade, the general consensus was that San Francisco acquired Rafael Devers for a very reasonable price. Still, his disappointing form as a Giant to this point has been one reason for the team's recent struggles.
Since the All-Star break, Devers has been in significantly better form at the plate, as he's averaged .353 in 34 plate appearances and owns a 70% hard-hit rate in that span, while slugging .618 with a weighted on-base average of .422.
Devers finished the 2024 season with the seventh-highest slugging rate in MLB versus right-handed pitching and also held the ninth-highest hard-hit rate among batters that had over 100 at-bats. While it's no secret that Devers's season has been a disappointment, he's still slugged .482 versus righties this season.
The Giants hold a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitchers this season and hold a weighted on-base average of .312.
Gage is expected to handle one or two innings before the Giants turn things over to the bullpen in this matchup. Gage has fared well in a tiny sample of nine and 2/3 innings this season, pitching to a 2.37 xERA with a Stuff+ rating of 98.
Carson Seymour is expected to be used after Gage leaves the game and is capable of handling multiple innings. He holds a 3.86 ERA in 77 innings this season in Triple-A and owns a 3.00 ERA in six innings of work in MLB this season.
Mets vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
It will be very interesting to see what Senga offers in this high-profile matchup on Sunday Night Baseball. He enters off a disastrous outing in which his stuff was not right. Throughout the season, his underlying numbers have been less convincing than usual, and he's likely due for some negative regression in the near future.
While Devers has struggled to find his form during his tenure with the Giants, he has trended into drastically better form at the plate since the All-Star break.
He's been one of the best batters in the league versus right-handed pitchers throughout the majority of his career, and his chances of remaining productive in this matchup seem to be underrated, as Senga still seems to be garnering a lot of credit.
At a long price of +150, there looks to be value in backing Devers to record over 1.5 total bases in this matchup.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150, DraftKings | Play to +140)
Moneyline
The current prices look to be fair, and there does not appear to be value in betting either side.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run-line for this game.
Over/Under
My lean would be with betting the game to go over its total of 8 runs at -110.
