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White Sox vs. Twins MLB Odds & Pick: How to Bet Monday’s AL Central Matchup (July 5)

White Sox vs. Twins MLB Odds & Pick: How to Bet Monday’s AL Central Matchup (July 5) article feature image

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Nelson Cruz.

  • The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox in an AL Central matchup on Monday night.
  • The White Sox have been cruising in the division, but the Twins may have an advantage with Dylan Cease taking the mound for Chicago.
  • Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting guide for picks, predictions, odds, and analysis below.

White Sox vs. Twins Odds

White Sox Odds -115
Twins Odds -103
Over/Under 10 (-114 / -107)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via DraftKings.

The White Sox look to extend their lead in the AL Central as they take on their division foe Twins in Minneapolis.

The White Sox are cruising toward an AL Central title and are looking like one of the most complete teams in Major League Baseball. Chicago ranks inside the top 10 in almost every metric. Its offense, starting pitching, and bullpen have been fantastic, so it’s hard to find a lot of negatives with Tony La Russa’s team.

It’s been a disaster of a season for Minnesota, which is currently 14.5 games behind the White Sox in the division. Its offense has been solid, but its starting pitching and bullpen have let it down at this point in the season. It’ll need a strong second half of the season to have any chance of getting back to the playoffs.

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Offensive Matchup

White Sox Offense Keeps Rolling

The White Sox offense has been amazing this season despite all of the injuries to some of their best players. They’re still top-10 in runs scored, BB%, wOBA, and wRC+.

The reason they’re so good is two-fold:

  1. They hit both right-handers and left-handers well, ranking toward the top of the league in wOBA against both, and
  2. They have positive run values versus every single pitch type.

So, a pitcher like Bailey Ober, who mainly just throws fastballs, is going to have a difficult matchup against this White Sox lineup that ranks sixth against fastballs.

Twins Have Solid Matchup

Despite being in last place in the AL Central, the Twins offense has actually been one of the best in Major League Baseball. They own a .324 wOBA and 104 wRC+, which both rank inside the top 10. They have also been crushing right-handed pitching, ranking inside the top 10 in home runs, wOBA, wRC+.

Minnesota has also been one of the best teams in Major League Baseball against fastballs with 48.2 weighted fastball runs so far this season, which is bad news for Dylan Cease, who goes to his fastball over 47% of the time.

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Starting Pitching Matchup

Dylan Cease vs. Bailey Ober

2021 Stats (via Fangraphs)

White Sox Starting Pitcher

Dylan Cease, RHP

2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Cease has made great improvements in what is his third big-league season.

Most notably, he’s lowered his xERA and xFIP by almost two runs from 2020. The biggest reason for those improvements is his control. Cease has increased his K/9 rate to an incredible 11.35 and lowered his HR/9 rate to 0.99 compared to over 1.80 in each of the last two seasons.

As far as Cease’s pitch mix is concerned, the biggest issue has come on his fastball. He’s got fantastic velocity on it, averaging over 96 mph, but his control hasn’t been that great.

Last season, he allowed a wOBA over .380 on his heater and had only a 17.2% whiff rate with it. This season, he’s still allowing a wOBA of .360 and an xwOBA of .384. Now, he has to face the best fastball hitting team in baseball, so it could be a short night for him on the mound.

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Minnesota Twins Starting Pitcher

Bailey Ober, RHP

2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Ober has only pitched 24.2 innings in the big leagues, but he’s been pretty good to this point, posting a 4.23 xERA and 4.26 xFIP.

The 6-foot-9 right-hander uses a four-pitch mix and has great command over his entire arsenal. His fastball has very average speed at 92 mph, but it has good cutting action.

His secondary pitches have been an issue so far this season, though, as they’re all allowing a wOBA over .440, but he doesn’t utilize them that often, going to his fastball 59.3% of the time.

He’ll have a very difficult matchup against the White Sox, who shelled him for five runs and three home runs in his last start in only 3.1 innings of work. So, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not he can turn things around with a different game plan just five days later.

Bullpen/Defensive Matchup

The White Sox will have the advantage in the later innings.

They’ve posted an xFIP of 3.90, so far this season, while the Twins’ bullpen has been a disaster, ranking in the bottom 10 of baseball in K/9 rate, HR/9 rate, and ERA.

So, Minnesota will need a good six innings out of Ober in this game.

White Sox-Twins Pick

Even though on paper this looks like a mismatch with the division leader taking on the last-place team, I think this Twins offense has a fantastic matchup against a fastball-heavy pitcher in Cease.

Therefore, I think the Twins have some value at home at -105, but I wouldn’t play it any lower than that.

Pick: Twins ML -105

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