Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: How to Bet the Co-Main Event Title Trilogy

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds

For the first time in UFC history, a pair of fighters will complete all three legs of a trilogy in consecutive bouts, as Brandon Moreno looks to defend his Flyweight title against former champion Deiveson Figueiredo.

The pair fought to a majority draw in December 2020 due to a point deduction for Figueiredo, who temporarily retained his title until June 2021 when Moreno secured the belt via third-round submission.

Figueiredo went through a challenging weight cut before the second fight and looked like a complete shell of himself, so it's encouraging that he made weight with easy on Friday morning. I expect to see a much better version of "Deus Da Guerra" this time around.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's co-main event and reveal my play for Figueiredo vs. Moreno III. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Since we have a significant octagon sample (nearly 40 minutes) between these two fighters, all analysts have to decide how to weigh the first and the second fights before the third fight since the two bouts played out so differently.

Aside from the point deduction, at least two judges scored four of the five rounds for Figueiredo, who led the striking numbers (137-132) despite giving up more than three minutes of control time.

Figueiredo is typically a fast starter, and he was known to fade later in fights. Moreno Live after Round 2 seemed like a solid spot for the first meeting. Still, in hindsight, it seemed like the champ had done enough to cover his -235 price tag after rallying to win the fifth round (16-8 on significant strikes) despite an earlier point deduction.

Moreno ate a ton of powerful strikes in the first fight, including 34-of-45 body shots, but he never appeared to be in real trouble, which may have earned him the draw.

Moreno opened as a +205 underdog for the rematch but was bet down to +150 (40% implied) just before the opening bell after a brutal weight cut for Figueiredo left him drained.

Moreno was the aggressor early in the rematch, looking far more confident while picking Figueiredo apart from the jump (71-33 strike differential; 4:49 to 1:30 of control time). "The Assassin Baby" eventually took the Figueiredo's back, locked in a body triangle, and made his opponent quit:

Was it the problematic weight cut for Figueiredo that caused severe regression and an outlier performance, or did Moreno make significant adjustments? Perhaps, it was a combination of both.

Overall, I think that the first fight — when both men appeared at their best — tells us much more about this stylistic matchup than the second fight in which Figueiredo looked utterly drained of energy.

The Brazilian changed camps after the bout to Fight Ready MMA in Arizona to work with Henry Cejudo, Eddie Cha, and Santino DeFranco – one of the best coaching staffs in the sport of MMA.

Based on the optics to date, Figueiredo has the clear power advantage in the matchup, but I would have to give a slight wrestling advantage to Moreno, who has spent more than seven minutes in control positions in their two fights.

Moreno gets the nod for both cardio and durability. However, I'm uncertain that he has as significant of an advantage in terms of stamina as I suspected before the first fight — Figueiredo was able to find a second wind in the later rounds and should have won the fight 48-46, even with the point deduction.

To reiterate, Moreno closed at +250 for the first fight, and oddsmakers opened him at +205 for the rematch — I thought Figueiredo had come close to converting his price, even without a finish. And I believe that the eventual line movement (closed +150) resulted from Figueiredo's obvious weight cut issues.

However, I'm afraid I disagree with the current odds for the trilogy fight, which have Moreno closer to 65% implied after closing at +250 (28.6%) and +150 (40%) the previous matchups.

That is an over adjustment, especially considering that Figueiredo looks to be in the best shape of his career.

I would expect Moreno to once again mix in the grappling early, he will face much less resistance with Figueiredo on the bottom (if he can avoid the initial guillotine) than he will see at a striking distance. Those scrambles could serve to tire out the challenger and zap his energy for the championship rounds.

Conversely, I would expect Figueiredo to fire more leg kicks (landed 12-of-16 in the two bouts to date) due to his gym change and to keep digging to the body since Moreno's chin is ironclad.

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Moreno vs. Figueiredo Pick

As someone who started out betting horse racing, you learn to "draw a line" through a result sometimes because there are exigent circumstances that make an outlier performance unquantifiable and therefore unreliable.

While Figueiredo has dealt with brutal weight cuts throughout his Flyweight career, his body seemingly shut down before the first two matchups in this trilogy. I was amazed that he looked so sharp in the first fight, but somewhat unsurprised — particularly after the aggressive line movement — that he looked so flat in the second matchup.

And while it's possible that he's now simply too old for the division, and the game is about to pass him by, that performance was such an outlier that you almost have to disregard it entirely.

I'm willing to accept the closing odds for the rematch (roughly 60% implied for Figueiredo) as the true odds in this stylistic matchup — it incorporates the assessment that Figueiredo is the man with both the higher finishing upside and damage-inflicting ability — but with the caveat that he may fade or prove to be a shell of himself.

And even if the prediction market sets Moreno as the favorite now (projected 53.8% or -116 implied), there's still betting value on the challenger at current odds.

I would bet Figueiredo on the moneyline down to +126 (44.2% implied), at a two percentage point edge compared to my projection. Moreover, you could bet him to win inside the distance (projected +233, listed +330) in the prop market.

However, I'm not interested in betting the total (projected +132, listed +110 to go the distance) on this fight.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo ML (+155)