UFC 270 Betting Odds, Picks, Model Predictions: Analysis & Previews for All 11 Saturday Fights

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA with an 11-fight card for UFC 270, highlighted by a pair of title fights in the men's Flyweight and Heavyweight divisions.

The early prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ before moving to ESPN for four fights at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight PPV main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value. So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. All times ET.

UFC 270 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 11 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 270 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 270 Odds & Picks

Early Preliminary Card

• 7 p.m. ET
• ESPN+

Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Crowdsourced Projections: Hansen (64.3%)

Hansen will make her third walk to the octagon on Saturday at the tender age of 22, as she returns from a 14-month layoff to face debutant Jasmine Jasudavicius, who earned her UFC contract with a victory on Week 3 of Contender Series last September.

The 32-year-old Jasudavicius is 10 years older than her opponent and is a late arrival to the sport of MMA — limiting her long-term upside as a prospect since she has already passed her physical prime.

Hansen is moving up from Strawweight to Flyweight for this fight, and she'll be at a significant size disadvantage (5 inches of both height and reach) relative to her Canadian opponent.

Hansen struggled in striking exchanges against Cory McKenna (58-inch reach) last time out, so if Jasudavicius can work behind her jab, she could serve to frustrate Hansen.

Given the size discrepancy, and potential strength advantage for Jasudavicius, Hansen could have difficulty getting this fight to the mat (2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, 25% accuracy) in the early stages.

However, Jasmine has shown a tendency to fade late in her fights, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Hansen stage a come from behind victory in the late rounds after shaking off the cage rust.

That said, I show slight value on Jasudavicius' moneyline odds (projected +180), and I would need +200 (33.3% implied) or better to make a small play on the underdog in this low-level fight.

Depending upon the book, you can also find value on Jasudavicius to win by decision (projected +274, listed +310 at FanDuel). However, I could see Jasudavicius finishing this fight with strikes if Hansen cannot escape clinch positions.

Bets

• Jasmine Jasudavicius (+200, 0.25 units)

Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez

Crowdsourced Projections: Demopoulos (55.5%)

With all due respect to these fighters, this matchup is about as low level as it gets in the UFC, but we could have an exciting finish resulting from this binary striker vs. grappler clash.

Juarez should lead the dance on the feet, where she is the much more technical striker and owns a 6-inch reach advantage. Still, the 37-year-old is on the wrong side of the age curve at Strawweight and has shown significant holes in her grappling game and submission defense that Demopoulos can exploit.

Demopoulos isn't a good wrestler, so she might struggle to get this fight to the mat, but if she manages to find herself in top position, she should have a significant advantage. I'm confident that she can also find a submission from the bottom if she decides to pull guard, or if her opponent decides to shoot a takedown.

I'm surprised to find Demopoulos as the outright favorite — she might be losing minutes in this fight until the moment that she wins. If Demopoulos has enough control time to win minutes with the judges, I have difficulty believing that she won't find a finishing sequence.

I show value on this fight to go the distance and on Juarez to win via decision (projected +221) depending upon the book.

However, I also show slight value on Demopoulos to win by submission (+550 at FanDuel) and see that as her most realistic win condition given the stylistic clash.

Bets

• Vanessa Demopoulos wins by Submission (+550, 0.1u)

Preliminary Card

• 8 p.m. ET
• ESPN

Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez

Crowdsourced Projections: Frevola (70.2%)

Valdez, who had the wildest Contender Series fight of 2021, is making his official promotional debut after securing a contract as a -1000 favorite last October when he was bloodied and nearly finished multiple times:

He'll have a puncher's chance against Frevola, who suffered the quickest loss in UFC Lightweight history in June against Terrance McKinney. However, two fights back, Frevola put forth an excellent effort against a future title challenger in Arman Tsarukyan, and the loss to McKinney likely means little in the long run, aside from a moment of bad variance.

So long as he sticks to a grappling-heavy game plan and avoids heavy exchanges on the feet, Frevola is going to look like a huge favorite in this matchup. Valdez doesn't have any standout skills despite his one-sided favoritism on Contender Series.

Moreover, Valdez puts power into every technique — whether striking or grappling — and tends to gas himself out by the middle of his fights. Conversely, Frevola can maintain a hectic, grappling-heavy pace for at least 15 minutes. Therefore, Valdez's win condition is typically limited to an early finish, no matter the matchup.

I show slight value on Frevola's moneyline (projected -235), and I would consider using him as a parlay piece.

Unfortunately, I don't show value on either side of the total or any winning method props for the fight, but I do have a solid lean to the Under 2.5 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (-168 at FanDuel) given the matchup specifics.

Bets

• Parlay (+116, 0.5u): Matt Frevola (-192) & Tony Gravely (-239)

Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira

Crowdsourced Projections: Gravely (74.1%)

Skill for skill, this fight may present the biggest mismatch on Saturday's card.

Gravely is an underrated, unranked talent in the UFC, with his ability to blend his striking (+0.87 differential) and grappling (5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy) to keep opponents off-balance.

Unfortunately, Gravely's cardio is often lacking; he has fallen into several submissions throughout his career, which makes a matchup with Oliveira, who owns a nasty guillotine choke, so dangerous.

If Gravely can avoid diving into that choke, keep his wits about him, and avoid gassing out late in the fight, it's challenging to envision Oliveira finding a path to victory.

However, Gravely has been known to have low fight IQ moments inside the octagon, and I can't fully trust him to avoid making a crucial mistake. Otherwise, I might lay the wood on his moneyline, where I project actionable value (projected -285).

I'll limit myself to using Gravely as a small parlay piece with another risky favorite in Matt Frevola.

I don't show value with regards to the total. However, I show slight value in the winning method market on Gravely by decision (projected +108) and Oliveira by submission (projected +542).

However, the under 2.5 Rounds and Gravely to win inside the distance were my initial reads on the fight, so we'll stick with the small parlay paring.

Bets

• Parlay (+116, 0.5u): Matt Frevola (-192) & Tony Gravely (-239)

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez

Crowdsourced Projections: Maddalena (74.9%)

It's difficult to nitpick Rodriguez: His entire professional career encompasses fewer than five minutes of action (all knockout victories), and he only made it past the six-minute mark once in his eight-fight amateur career.

Rodriguez is a late replacement for Warlley Alves, originally scheduled to face Jack Della Maddalena ("JDM") in this matchup.

The Aussie earned a UFC contract with an impressive Contender Series performance last year (landing 108-of-227 significant strike attempts) and will likely overwhelm Rodriguez if this fight goes beyond the first frame:

However, JDM has previously been hurt in big, early exchanges. Even though he is the more skilled fighter and a better overall athlete, JDM should provide Rodriguez with a window to finish in the early stages of this fight.

I'm not sure that Rodriguez is ready to fight at this level — there's a chance (based on early amateur tape) that he could be overwhelmed entirely if JDM pursues a grappling-heavy game plan.

Still, it's challenging to suppose things about a fighter that can't be seen on film, and Rodriguez's recent fights are so quick that it's difficult to discern his actual skill level or physical attributes like durability and cardio.

Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+1100 at FanDuel) encompasses the majority of his win condition, and I wouldn't fault anyone for sprinkling that prop.

I expect this fight to end inside the distance at a high clip (projected -400) and suspect that this bout between a pair of debutants ends both violently and in short order.

Including amateur bouts, this pair of fighters would have cashed an under 1.5 more than 80% of the time, so that's where my money will be.

And if Maddalena manages to lose the first round but survive, I would look to jump in at a live discount.

Bets

• Maddalena/Rodriguez, Under 1.5 Rounds (-130, Risk 0.5u)
• Jack Della Maddalena Live after Round 1

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Crowdsourced Projections: Barcelos (81.6%)

Barcelos can compete with almost any fighter in the UFC based solely on his skillset. Still, the Brazilian never appears to have a game plan when he enters the octagon, often ignoring the easiest path to victory on the mat and choosing to engage in low-volume striking affairs where he constantly pressures but rarely lets his hands go.

When Barcelos does throw, he has excellent power and technique and is highly adept at moving out of the way of his opponent's counters (66% striking defense).

Although he's making his UFC debut on Saturday, Victory Henry is a 27-fight journeyman who holds wins over multiple UFC veterans.

"La Mongosta" is incredibly durable (never been finished in his career) and given Barcelos' propensity to make fights closer than they need to be, this moneyline is likely a bit wide.

However, I suspect that Barcelos is the far superior grappler, given his background in both wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and I would be disappointed if he didn't try to grapple for a significant portion of this fight.

I'm tempted by two plus-money plays here, on the fight to go the distance (projected +104, listed +120) and on Barcelos to win via submission (projected +309, listed +400), and I'll take a sprinkle of the latter since it aligned with my initial read on the fight.

However, I may be kicking myself for not taking plus money on an over when Barcelos refuses to let his hands go yet again.

Bets

• Raoni Barcelos wins by Submission (+400, 0.1u)

Main Card

• 10 p.m. ET
• ESPN PPV

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles

Crowdsourced Projections: Giles (52.2%)

Giles, a career Middleweight, debuted in the UFC in 2017 at Light Heavyweight but will make his first MMA appearance as a Welterweight on Saturday night.

His opponent, debutant Michael Morales, earned his UFC contract as a +155 underdog on Week 4 of Contender Series last September. Surprisingly, Morales will enter his promotional debut as a slight favorite against an eight-fight octagon veteran, who holds wins over James Krause and Roman Dolidze.

Among the Contender Series debutants — and especially amongst the group on Saturday's card — Morales has one of the higher ceilings as a prospect.

Still, this bout represents a step down in competition for Giles relative to his previous opponents, and a significant class hike for the 22-year-old Morales.

My primary concerns with Giles are his speed and cardio. He wasn't a particularly big middleweight, but he may be a step too slow after dropping down in class despite an anticipated increase in power.

Moreover, Giles never had good stamina to begin with, and cutting weight could further serve to zap his explosiveness halfway through a fight.

Considering that Giles made weight with relative ease, I have to side with the well-rounded — if unspectacular — UFC veteran against a youngster facing the most challenging test of his career.

I projected Giles as a slight favorite (52%) and would bet his moneyline at any plus money price. However, I don't show value on either side of the total or any winning method props for the fight.

Bets

• Trevin Giles (+100, 0.5u)

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Cody Stamann

Crowdsourced Projections: Nurmagomedov (57.9%)

I suspect that Said Nurmagomedov might be overvalued here based purely on name value. However, he is not related to Khabib, and he has a completely different fighting style.

Unlike his more famous compatriot, Said prefers to keep his fights standing and strikes from range where he possesses a 6-inch reach advantage over his upcoming opponent.

Nurmagomedov should be the more efficient striker (+2.38 to +0.67 strike differential). Still, Stamann, who has competed at Featherweight, should be the much bigger man in the cage against a former Flyweight, and he possesses significant grappling upside.

Stamann is reliable to shoot takedowns (2.80 landed per 15 minutes, 44% accuracy) after applying forward pressure with his boxing. He won't simply let Nurmagomedov pick him apart from the outside without trying to drag this fight to the mat — and the Russian certainly leaves openings for takedowns with his wild arsenal of spinning attacks.

Nurmagomedov's scrambling is excellent, and he's challenging to hold down. Still, suppose Stamann can land three or four takedowns in this fight. In that case, the scorecards are going to be very close — the American has a habit of keeping fights competitive, even when outclassed against top-flight competition like Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, and Merab Dvalishvili.

While his durability and cardio are both excellent, Stamann doesn't possess much finishing upside — even when he does win rounds, they tend to be close.

Nurmagomedov seemingly possesses much more finishing upside in this fight, but if Stamann can survive and land takedowns, he could do enough to secure the decision.

I projected Stamann at +138 (42.1% implied), and I'm happy to bet his moneyline down to +150 (40% implied).

However, I show as much value on Stamann's odds of winning by decision (projected +180, listed +260), and I will split my stake between those two wagers.

Furthermore, I show value on the Over 2.5 rounds, or the fight to go the distance prop (projected -322), but that outcome is far more correlated to the Stamann side.

Bets

• Cody Stamann (+166, 0.25u)
• Cody Stamann wins by Decision (+260, 0.25u)

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho

Crowdsourced Projections: Pereira (68.7%)

The featured bout at UFC 270 is one of the few spots I don't have a strong read on for Saturday's card.

Pereira has skills everywhere, and he is a massive welterweight to boot, but he's also a wild character who does some bizarre stuff in the octagon:

That should have been a point deduction for the kick to the head of a downed opponent, by the way.

Pereira was initially supposed to face exciting striker Muslim Salikhov in this bout, but Portuguese debutant Andre Fialho will step in as a late-notice replacement instead.

Fialho has faced multiple UFC veterans and other high-caliber competition overseas and has shown considerable knockout power. Still, Pereira should be the more durable man if these two decide to brawl, and he likely has a more straightforward path to victory on the mat.

I don't project actionable value on either side of the moneylines or the total for this fight, nor do I show value in any winning method props.

As a result, I'm going to pass on betting this bout, but I'll undoubtedly be using Pereira and Fialho in DFS lineups.

Bets

• Pass

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Crowdsourced Projections: Moreno (53.8%)

For additional information on Saturday's co-main event, including a full statistical breakdown of the competitors, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

In short, since we have a significant octagon sample (nearly 40 minutes) between these two fighters, all analysts have to decide how to weigh the first and the second fights before the third fight since the two bouts played out so differently.

Aside from the point deduction, at least two judges scored four of the five rounds in the first fight for Figueiredo, who led the striking numbers (137-132) despite giving up more than three minutes of control time.

Moreno opened as a +205 underdog for the rematch but was bet down to +150 (40% implied) just before the opening bell after a brutal weight cut for Figueiredo left him drained.

Overall, I think that the first fight — when both men appeared at their best — tells us much more about this stylistic matchup than the second fight in which Figueiredo looked utterly drained of energy.

I'm afraid I disagree with the current odds for the trilogy fight, which have Moreno closer to 65% implied after closing at +250 (28.6%) and +150 (40%) the previous matchups.

I'm willing to accept the closing odds for the rematch (roughly 60% implied for Figueiredo) as the true odds in this stylistic matchup — it incorporates the assessment that Figueiredo is the man with both the higher finishing upside and damage-inflicting ability — but with the caveat that he may fade or prove to be a shell of himself.

And even if the prediction market sets Moreno as the favorite now (projected 53.8% or -116 implied), there's still betting value on the challenger at current odds.

I would bet Figueiredo on the moneyline down to +126 (44.2% implied), at a two percentage point edge compared to my projection. Moreover, you could bet him to win inside the distance (projected +233, listed +330) in the prop market.

However, I'm not interested in betting the total (projected +132, listed +110 to go the distance) on this fight.

Bets

• Deiveson Figueiredo (+155, 0.75u)
• Parlay (+1244, 0.1u): Figueiredo Wins Inside the Distance & Ngannou wins Inside the Distance

Ciryl Gane vs. Francis Ngannou

Crowdsourced Projections: Gane (52%)

For additional information on Saturday's main event, including a full statistical breakdown of the competitors, make sure to check out my full fight preview. 

In short, I feel that the noticeable improvements that Ngannou showed in his rematch against Stipe Miocic are being overlooked.

He came out extremely patient, fired a hard early calf kick, showed a nice double jab to overhand combination, and landed a flush high kick that he claims also knocked out Gane in a training session.

Moreover, Ngannou showed significant improvement regarding his wrestling, stuffing the takedown attempts from Stipe before managing to take his opponents' back, where he landed some vicious ground and pound.

Since his last loss to Derrick Lewis in 2018, Ngannou has completed less than two rounds of fight time throughout five bouts. While we have seen improvements in that limited sample, it's difficult to determine whether his stamina has improved.

The arguments that one can make in favor of Gane are true of nearly all of Ngannou's opponents. And while Gane might be the best opponent he has faced, or will ever meet, Francis only needs one moment to dictate the outcome.

I had initially expected to back Gane since I generally side with minute-winners, but the line movement is dictating my hand after opening around a pick 'em.

I projected Ngannou as a 48% underdog (+108 implied odds) in this title unification bout, and I'm happy to bet his moneyline down to +117 (46% implied) in the most high-variance division in MMA.

I projected this bout to end inside the distance 72% of the time (-255 implied), and I don't see value regarding the total. However, I do slightly value Ngannou's prop to win by knockout (KO/TKO), listed at +165 at DraftKings (projected +145).

Most importantly, if Ngannou does win, you'll never find a plus sign next to his name — or knockout prop — ever again, and Gane has received much more public support than I had ever anticipated.

Bets

• Francis Ngannou (+130, 0.75u)

Zerillo's UFC 270 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

• Cody Stamann wins by Decision (+260, 0.25 units)

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

• Vanessa Demopoulos wins by Submission (+550, 0.1u)
• Maddalena/Rodriguez, Under 1.5 Rounds (-130, Risk 0.5u)
• Raoni Barcelos wins by Submission (+400, 0.1u)

Moneylines

• Jasmine Jasudavicius (+200, 0.25u)
• Trevin Giles (+100, 0.5u)
• Cody Stamann (+166, 0.25u)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (+155, 0.75u)
• Francis Ngannou (+130, 0.75u)

Parlays

• Parlay (+116, 0.5u): Matt Frevola (-192) & Tony Gravely (-239)
• Parlay (+1244, 0.1u): Figueiredo Wins Inside the Distance & Ngannou wins Inside the Distance

Live Betting Notes

• Jack Della Maddalena Live after Round 1

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