UFC 294 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Afternoon Pay-Per-View in Abu Dhabi (Saturday, October 21)

Check out our UFC 294 best bets for the Saturday afternoon pay-per-view event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

The Middle East event kicks off at a special time of 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT) with the preliminary card on ESPN+, which is followed by the ESPN+ PPV main card at 2 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

In Saturday's 294 main event, UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his belt on the line when he meets featherweight titleholder Alexander Volkanovski. The duo first met earlier this year with Makhachev narrowly winning via decision.

However, that champ vs. champ main event is just one of 13 bouts on Saturday's overseas fight card.

So where should be looking to place your UFC 294 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and six picks, including some juicy underdogs, on Saturday’s stacked PPV card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Sean Zerillo: Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammad Naimov

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 a.m. ET

On average, UFC featherweight bouts go to a decision at a 54.8% clip (-121 implied odds), roughly in line with the best available odds (-122) for Saturday's clash between Englishman Nathaniel Wood and Tajikistan native Muhammad Naimov in Abu Dhabi.

Wood, a former bantamweight, is extremely quick and technical but carries only a little power in his hands, and Naimov has never been finished across 16 amateur and professional bouts.

Naimov – the true featherweight with advantages in height (three inches taller), reach (one inch) and power – seems the likelier of the pair to finish this fight via strikes.

Wood is an incredibly well-rounded fighter, but he does tend to get cracked and wobble a couple of times per fight, leading to opportunities for his opponents to finish or swinging the round optics against himself for scoring purposes.

Wood likely has the grappling advantage in this fight, but he doesn't always wrestle proactively, and he averaged just about one takedown attempt per round (3.15 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy).

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He seems likelier to finish the fight on the mat – or win extended grappling stretches with top control after landing a takedown – and grappling as his Plan A may provide Wood with much less resistance and lead to a much cleaner win against this style of opponent.

It would also kill time off the clock while getting us closer to the final bell. I expect this bout to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (projected -157) and would bet that prop up to -145. I also expect Wood to win that decision more often than not and projected his decision prop at +103 (listed +120 at FanDuel). Consider including the plus-money prop on round-robin tickets.

I prefer to bet the fight to reach a decision – rather than betting on Wood to win that decision – because Naimov could swing a fight that Wood is otherwise winning back in his favor on a couple of brief moments. He could do this by wobbling Wood and landing the most impactful shot in two of the three rounds, thereby erasing most of Wood's minute-winning.

From a moneyline perspective, this is a 'dog-or-pass spot with Naimov (projected +239, listed +270 at BetMGM), but I would rather bet him to survive and keep this fight close and competitive for the duration.

Dann Stupp: Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov, Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli & Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 a.m. ET, 11:25 a.m. ET & 12:25 p.m. ET

On a fight card full of on-paper mismatches, I can't help but think we're going to see some underdogs with their hands raised on Saturday afternoon.

In fact, I was so torn on which underdog to pick for my official Action Network best bet this week that I decided to shake it up; instead of betting one unit on one fighter, I'm going to divvy up that unit and sprinkle it across three underdog plays for the UFC 294 preliminary card.

If just one of them cashes, we'll be profitable. And as a bonus, we also get some bang for our betting buck by sweating three juicy long-shot plays.

Our first bet comes from the day's third fight: featherweights Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov. As Sean detailed above, Naimov has a lot of physical advantages in this fight, and I'm not sure Wood is going to rely on his own edges to fight a smart fight. Give me Naimov, who's a real KO threat through this bout, at odds of +270 on the moneyline, and take it down to +225.

Our second play is in the lightweight division: Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli. Despite missing weight and lackluster recent results, Breeden is more than capable of hanging with India's Jubli, who's got very little in the way of competent competition early in his career. Jubli seems like a UFC project, and they tend to have a knack for big letdowns. Breeden is quite playable at +230, and I'd take him down to +200.

And to cap off this three-pack of UFC 294 picks, we're going to a bantamweight fight with Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry. Quite simply, Basharat shouldn't be a massive -600 favorite (implied win probability of 85.7%) over Henry, a man who scored a significant upset over Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut and who has the pace and pressure to keep this UFC 294 matchup close.

At +430 odds, Henry needs to win this fight just one out of five times to make this a profitable bet in the long run. We'll take it down to that +400 cutoff and hope Henry's output can find a stoppage or sway at least two judges.

So, for UFC 294, we're going to take Naimov, Breeden and Henry each on the moneyline. (And if you're feeling adventurous and want to sweat a super-juicy play for UFC 294, you could parlay all three underdogs, and it would give you mouth-watering odds of +6371.)

The Picks: Muhammad Naimov (+270), Mike Breeden (+230), Victor Henry (+430)

Tony Sartori: Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:55 p.m. ET

Kicking off the UFC 294 main card is a bantamweight bout between Said Nurmagomedov and Muin Gafurov.

Playing the number here at +200 is simply too wide for a capable fighter like Gafurov against a beatable Nurmagomedov. The latter is a strong mixed martial artist who prefers to stand and bang but is capable of locking in submissions from anywhere.

But Nurmagomedov's style is not "crisp" at all; he is very loose out there and not in a good way. He implements a lot of unnecessary movement and spins, which ultimately drains his stamina and puts him in trouble later in fights. We saw that in both of his decision losses to Jonathan Martinez and Raoni Barcelos.

That could become an issue against Gafurov, who will likely have to rely on his wrestling if he is to win this fight. Gafurov's most important asset in this fight is his chin considering that he's never been finished across 23 professional fights.

If he is able to survive against Nurmagomedov on the feet and ultimately bring this fight to the mat at some point, then +180 turns into a very live number, especially if we leave a decision up to the judges.

I see this fight going one of two ways: Either Nurmagomedov knocks out Gafurov early, or it is a competitive bout that goes to decision with Gafurov earning some favor by capitalizing on a tired Nurmagomedov in the later rounds.

Considering that chin, I think the second outcome is more likely. So, if we are going to decision, I'll take a shot on the +180 underdog against a Nurmagomedov who is very skilled/talented but not very efficient.

The Pick: Muin Gafurov (+200 at BetMGM)

Billy Ward: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET

I’m not the type of bettor willing to lay big juice on an MMA fight, almost regardless of the participants. Especially when the fighter I’d be betting against is one of the most successful UFC champions in history in Kamaru Usman.

Something I will do is try to shorten those odds, based on method and/or timing of victory. That’s why I went digging into the method-of-victory section for UFC 294's makeshift co-main event between Usman and Khamzat Chimaev.

As we all know by now, Usman stepped up on just over a week’s notice to face Chimaev. Not only is this a short-notice bout, but Usman is jumping up a weight class to meet “Borz” at middleweight.

While Chimaev is also a former welterweight, he missed the mark badly in his last attempt, and he has had the better part of a year to add some bulk for his new home at 185 pounds. Usman had toyed with the idea of middleweight following consecutive losses to the welterweight champ, but it’s unlikely he’ll have the size and strength of Chimaev.

That’s a problem for Usman, who went a long way at welterweight with his physicality, generally as the considerably stronger and more explosive fighter in his matchups. He’ll be neither against the undefeated Dagestani.

There’s also a pair of (related) elephants in the room. The first is the possibility that Usman is just washed. While his first title loss to Leon Edwards was due to a late knockout in a fight he was winning, he was thoroughly outclassed in the rematch.

The other is his knee, which has given him issues in the past and appeared to pop at the UFC 294 open workouts. It’s at least plausible that Usman is less than 100% here – or that his 100% isn’t what it used to be.

Even if that’s not the case, the gap between Chimaev’s stoppage odds and moneyline is too wide here. Chimaev has finished 11 of his 12 professional wins, and his somewhat questionable cardio means a 15-minute decision is relatively unlikely. I’d play this bet down to -140.