UFC 301 Best Bets: Our Favorite Picks for Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg & More (Saturday, May 4)

Check out our UFC 301 best bets with our top picks for the Saturday pay-per-view event in Brazil with the Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg main event.

UFC 301 takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the main card is available via ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 301 is no exception.

So, where is the betting edge? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked Brazilian card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's UFC 300 projections below using odds from DraftKings.

(UFC 301 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 301 with our DraftKings promo code!)

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Sean Zerillo: Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET

I like the underdog in Saturday's curtain-jerker. I project Kevin Borjas (+102) as a favorite and expect the fight with fellow flyweight Alessandro Costa (-130) to reach a decision more than 50% of the time; you can take plus money on both outcomes, but I'm focusing on the moneyline play for my best bet.

Borjas is the taller, longer and more durable fighter. Still, he will also offer more striking output relative to Costa, who carries more power and retains the grappling upside but has a subpar process to optimize his skill set.

Costa doesn't always proactively grapple when he has an advantage and tends to prioritize hunting for submissions over controlling opponents when he does. That leaves fellow flyweights with room to scramble out from under him.

I trust Borjas' takedown defense and getup game to keep this fight on the feet, where he'll land an accumulation of straight punches.

I'd consider including Borjas by decision (projected +324, listed +400) on round-robin tickets.

The Pick: Kevin Borjas (+115 at BetMGM)

Dann Stupp: Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET

This year, I've decided to really tighten up my MMA betting. I've made a promise toward focus and overall efficiency to plug the leaks that hurt my overall ROI.

That's meant I've had to swear off betting sentimental favorites when, deep down, I know the value just isn't there. And at UFC 301, that means I've got to fade a fighter who's made me a lot of money as an underdog over the years: Paul Craig.

Instead, I'm backing Caio Borralho (-575) to beat Craig (+425) in Saturday's pay-per-view opener – and I'm shrinking his moneyline odds to a quite-digestible -125 (at Betway and BetMGM) by betting that he'll win by a stoppage.

The current odds suggest Borralho wins this fight 86.2% of the time – but only 55.6% of the time by stoppage. However, I'd put Borralho's stoppage odds at closer to 60% (-150) to 75% (-300), so -125 presents some pretty solid value.

Craig is crafty, and he's dangerous as long as he has breath in his lungs and at least one functioning limb. But Borralho has the accurate striking and cardio edge to slowly pick apart his aging opponent.

Plus, as my colleague Billy Ward wisely noted, Borralho has revenge on his mind after Craig's 2020 win over Brazilian legend Shogun Rua. And, sure, beating someone on the ground is impressive. But if you really want revenge? You're gonna keep the fight standing and look for that highlight-reel finish.

Still, let's protect against a club-and-sub stoppage and bet the fight to end "by finish" rather than strictly a KO.

The Pick: Caio Borralho by finish (-125 at Betway)

Tony Sartori: Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC 301 main card features a middleweight bout between Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria. Pereira opened as a massive -520 favorite via FanDuel and has since been bet up all the way to -650 to Potieria's +440.

While I have no interest in laying over six dollars on the moneyline, I do think there is value in the prop market on his KO/TKO line at -115. That is Pereira's clearest path to victory; hence why we are catching the rare non-plus-money prop in the exact-finish market.

It is possible that Pereira locks in a submission, but Potieria has never tapped across 26 professional fights (and three amateur fights). On the other hand, he has been knocked out in each of his past three losses, which is a recipe for disaster against a violent striker like Pereira.

Potieria is a massive dog, and, unless he pulls off the upset, I just don't see how his chin holds up through three rounds. I actually don't think it will even hold up through the first round, but -115 is a good enough price on Pereira to win by KO at any time throughout the fight.

Finally, we are catching a particularly good price at -115 via FanDuel, a line that is 22-40 cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

The Pick: Michel Pereira by KO/TKO (-115 at FanDuel)

Billy Ward: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET

An oft-overlooked skill in handicapping the UFC is considering the matchmaking. While they’ll never admit it, UFC matchmakers clearly makes certain fights with a desired outcome in mind. This isn’t always obvious – but sometimes it is.

The UFC 301 main event is one such occasion. They needed a Brazilian champion to headline the card in Rio, and they had just two to choose from. One, Alex Pereira, headlined the recent UFC 300, which made Alexandre Pantoja the default choice.

Unfortunately, there was no undeniable contender for his crown after Pantoja (-185) dispatched Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval multiple times each. Which is how we got to Steve Erceg (+154).

Erceg joined the promotion last summer, and he had a solid 3-0 record in that time. However, none of those wins came against top-10 opponents, and he’s never been in a five-round fight. Those are both concerning statistics against Pantoja.

Erceg’s last fight was barely two months ago – another concerning factor. Given the relentless grappling of Pantoja, a longer camp with time to prepare for the matchup would’ve been a better situation for Erceg.

I’m high on “Astroboy” as a prospect, but this fight on enemy soil is too much too soon. I’ll take the moneyline on Pantoja while laying the points on his spread (available only on DraftKings) at -115 is a potential option to avoid the heavier juice.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-185 at DraftKings or BetMGM)