UFC Vegas 63 Odds, Picks, Projections: 3 Best Bets for Saturday, Including Arlovski vs. de Lima, Means vs. Griffin (October 29)

UFC Vegas 63 takes place Saturday, and the ESPN+ fight card offers an array of betting options.

The fight card, which kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. ET), features featherweights Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen and welterweights Max Griffin vs. Tim Means in the main attractions.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Billy Ward: Tim Means vs. Max Griffin

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Tim “Dirty Bird” Means takes on Max Griffin in the co-main event on Saturday. Both men are longtime UFC veterans nearing the ends of their careers, with 38 UFC fights between them.

Both fighters had three-fight winning streaks snapped in their most recent bouts. For Means it was a submission loss to Kevin Holland, for Griffin it was a split decision to Neil Magny. Means has historically struggled with submission fighters — six of his professional losses have been from a tap out.

That’s less of a concern against Griffin, who has just one (pre-UFC) submission win on his record. Griffin mixes in the occasional takedown, but doesn’t actively hunt submissions when fights hit the ground.

This one is likely to be decided on the feet, where Means is the better minute winner. He’s the more active striker, while also having better defense. Griffin certainly has the power upside, but will need to score knockdowns or significantly hurt Means to steal rounds.

In a fight that’s favored to go the distance, I want the fighter who’s going to land more total volume. That’s Means, who I’d bet down to +150.

I’m also interested in Means “decision only” prop – meaning the bet is refunded if the fight ends with a finish. That’s currently +165 on DraftKings, which implies a greater portion of Mean’s win condition is a stoppage than Griffin’s. That seems backwards to me, and I’d take that line instead if the gap between it and the moneyline grows any wider.

The Pick: Tim Means +160 (DraftKings)

Sean Zerillo: Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Staff Writer at The Action Network

My actual favorite bet on Saturday's card is in the Main Event, so I'll use this space to discuss my favorite underdog.

Betting on or against Andrei Arlovski – at this stage of his career – can be frustrating. After 56 fights, "The Pitbull" has developed a moderate-tempo, reasonably low-risk kickboxing game to stay relevant into his early forties.

Arlovski hasn't secured a finish since 2015, and 14 of his past 16 fights have gone to the judges. He is 9-5 in those decisions (14-7 career) but tends to win on the narrowest of margins (splits in his past two fights).

Still, Arlovski is often priced closer to even money as a result, rather than entering a fight as a significant underdog.

I can see the argument for de Lima as a pre-fight favorite. The Brazilian is an aggressive finisher, and Arlovski should be in danger in the first round.
After the opening frame, however, Arlovski should be able to keep the action exceedingly competitive, if not put a tiring de Lima away.

Typically, I would recommend waiting to bet Arlovski live after Round 1 at a better price against a fading opponent; and I would still look to fire live.
However, there's a definite possibility that de Lima eases off the gas early in response to his most recent effort against Blagoy Ivanov, where he failed to secure a finish and lost the final ten minutes.

Arlovski can steal a round on the scorecards against any fighter who refuses to push the pace, and he should get his desired tempo for at least half of this bout.

The concern is whether he can survive until de Lima starts to tire. Arlovski has 11 knockout losses in his career but hasn't lost by strikes since 2019 (seven fights). Still, I would favor Arlovski if you told me before the fight that de Lima doesn't finish in Round 1.

Bet Arlovski's moneyline (between a quarter and a half unit) pre-fight down to about +200 (projected +182). You'll be sweating bets on his side early, but you can look to add more live after Round 1.

You can also consider betting on Arlovski's decision prop (projected +276, listed +300 widely) or de Lima's KO prop (projected +158, listed +188 at Rivers) as alternative ways to play this fight.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski (+210, 0.5u at Caesars), bet to +200 | Arlovski Live after Round 1

Tony Sartori: Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore

Contributor at The Action Network

On the main card, we have a middleweight bout between Josh Fremd and Tresean Gore. Many of you may remember Gore from The Ultimate Fighter season 29, where he was slated to earn a shot at a UFC contract with the main event fight against Bryan Battle.

However, a knee injury forced him out of that event and they fought at UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland back in February. Not only did Gore lose that fight via unanimous decision, but he got another shot and fought against Cody Brundage in July.

Once again, Gore lost that fight as he got knocked out in the first round. Many have given up on the Gore project, but Dana White and Sean Shelby have not, and neither have I.

In his loss against Battle, Gore's power was showcased as he landed two knockdowns along with a takedown and looked like he was going to finish Battle on numerous occasions in a dominating second round. Although Battle was able to survive and win despite a third round that probably could have gone either way, Gore did enough to earn future fights in this promotion due to the questionable decision.

There are multiple avenues for Gore to win this fight against Josh Fremd, who got absolutely dominated by Anthony Hernandez in his lone UFC appearance. In that fight, Hernandez out-struck Fremd, landed eight of 11 takedowns, and garnered 10 minutes and 45 seconds of control time.

Is Gore ready to be a full-fledged member of the UFC? Maybe, maybe not. However, he has looked more like he belongs than Fremd, and if the scorecards went his way against Battle, then he probably would have been a betting favorite in this scrap.

His power will likely put Fremd down, but at plus money, Gore's moneyline is good enough. Fighting out of American Top Team in Atlanta, his corner should have Gore more than prepared for a fight that could both be standing or on the mat.

The Pick: Tresean Gore (+136 at FanDuel)