UFC Vegas 79 Odds, Picks, Projections: Expert Best Bets Include 3 Underdogs (Saturday, September 23)

Check out our UFC Vegas 79 best bets for the Saturday event at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, which streams on ESPN+.

UFC Vegas 79 kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 7 p.m. ET for the main card. All fights, including the Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot main event, are available on ESPN+.

UFC Vegas 79 features 11 matchups in all. So where should be looking to place your bets? Our MMA experts have pinpointed four fights and picks, including three underdogs, on Saturday’s fight card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Tony Sartori: Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET

On the UFC Vegas 79 prelims, Mizuki Inoue takes on Hannah Goldy in a strawweight bout.

Mizuki's 14-6 MMA record does not paint the full picture of her capabilities. Let's look at those six losses:

• Decision in third career pro fight
• 2 split decisions
• An overturned result due to missed weight
• Alexa Grasso (current UFC flyweight champion)
• Amanda Lemos (current No. 4 contender in the UFC strawweight division)

Six losses are six losses (profound statement, I know), but that is an entirely different resume of losses than getting dominated by a bunch of unproven mid-card fighters. And that is exactly where my mind goes (no offense) when I think of her UFC Vegas 79 opponent, Goldy.

Goldy is 1-3 through four UFC bouts with losses to Miranda Granger (who has lost three straight fights and is unranked), Diana Belbita (2-3 in UFC and unranked) and Molly McCann (lost two straight fights and unranked).

With a kickboxing and shoot-boxing background, Mizuki is more than capable of picking opponents apart on the feet. And, if this fight does end up on the mat, Goldy has never shown anything in that department to give me too much concern.

This just feels like one of those fights in which we see how much of a difference it is to be an "athlete" and a mixed martial artist. Goldy is undoubtedly the better athlete, but she is a below-average striker who looks uncomfortable on the mat and takes a lot of shots.

I think Mizuki will utilize her four-inch reach advantage to keep Goldy at distance and pick her apart, and I would not even be surprised if we see Mizuki implement some wrestling that we have not yet seen from her since joining the UFC. However, I don't see Mizuki's power getting Goldy out of there early – she has never knocked out someone – and her most likely path to victory is via decision.

Dann Stupp: Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET

When it comes to MMA, I'm a sucker for a good nickname and underdog odds. So for UFC Vegas 79, I was obviously drawn to The Dirty Bird.

It's not just about liking any ol' fun nickname, though. Sure, betting small underdogs in MMA is actually historically profitable (in the +112 to +168 range, for a respectable 2% ROI). If you take it a step further, though, and fine-tune your selections, you can extract even more value from these undervalued underdogs.

And that's what I think we're getting on Saturday's preliminary card, where longtime UFC vet and "Dirty Bird" Tim Means (+144 at FanDuel) is an underdog as he returns to the cage for a fight with modest favorite Andre Fialho (-178).

Both welterweights are in three-fight skids, but both fighters were facing some of the better contenders in the 170-pound division in those defeats.

Despite the recent setbacks, both are still dangerous. But I lean to Means for this UFC Vegas 79 bet for a few reasons. Understandably, I view this fight as more of a 50-50 matchup than the 64-36 matchup that the current odds suggest. I think Means puts up more volume, and if he can avoid early theatrics from Fialho, that output should allow him to win rounds.

Additionally, Means should have almost all of the wrestling upside here and – this is a recent rarity – could arguably even be the more durable fighter at this point in each fighter's career.

Give me The Dirty Bird at +144, and take that 'dog down to +125. Maybe even consider Means via KO (+500) or Means inside the distance (+350) for a sprinkle too.

This fight is simply closer than the odds suggest.

Billy Ward: Ricardo Ramos vs. Charles Jourdain

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET

Ricardo Ramos has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights with a 3-2 record in that time span. Both of the men who beat him have something in common: They’re primarily wrestlers.

The Brazilian Ramos is extremely dangerous on his feet with a diverse range of attacks. He has a pair of spinning-back-elbow knockouts on his record, including one he set up beautifully by faking a takedown attempt in his last fight: (Link to tweet with the clip if you want to embed:

This time he draws Charles Jourdain, who snapped a two-fight losing skid with a boring fight against a washed Kron Gracie, who refused to engage while continually pulling guard. I’m not giving Jourdain much credit for that one.

Jourdain is unlikely to test the ground game of Ramos, though, with just one takedown landed in his 11-fight UFC career. That means we should see a mostly striking affair between these featherweights on Saturday.

In that kind of a bout, I’m siding with Ramos. He’s a better technical striker than the wild Jourdain, and he has a three-inch reach edge. Jourdain’s superior output makes it fairly close – but not enough to fade Ramos at plus-money.

Additionally, Ramos has all of the offensive grappling upside here should he choose to use it. His takedown offense is far better than his takedown defense, and he could steal some rounds from the top position if Jourdain isn’t mindful of the threat.

At the very least, the grappling threat of Ramos should open up opportunities in the striking as he demonstrated perfectly in his last bout. Without having to worry about takedowns coming back from Jourdain, that’s a big edge.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos (+125 at Caesars)

Sean Zerillo: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

Ilia Topuria (at -140) was my best bet against Bryce Mitchell for UFC 282, and the Georgian thoroughly dismantled the Arkansas native in what might have been a career-altering beating for Mitchell.

Mitchell hasn't fought since that December loss and pulled out of subsequent bouts with back and shoulder injuries.

"Thug Nasty" once seemed like a potential title challenger at 145 pounds with smothering, dominant wins over the like of Edson Barboza (11:28 control time), but he seemed utterly outclassed – both technically and athletically – in his loss to Topuria, who may soon reign over the division.

Mitchell can justify his favoritism by exploiting Dan Ige's takedown defense (56%). Ige permitted three of five takedowns and 10 minutes of control time in his UFC Fight Night main event loss to "The Korean Zombie," Chan Sung Jung. He also allowed nine of 16 takedowns for 6:47 control time in his loss to Movsav Evloev. Still, Ige has shown improved defensive grappling and urgency at scrambling off his back in recent fights.

Additionally, Mitchell prioritizes control over damage from top position. He is liable to lose close and competitive rounds in which he lands a takedown and consolidates top time if his opponent lands the most significant punch in the one to two minutes of striking exchanges.

Ige is the significantly better striker and hits much harder. I'd expect him to land the more impactful strikes in each round and secure a competitive decision on damage optics, even if Mitchell lands multiple takedowns.

However, if Ige can deny the takedowns – or spend at least 10 minutes of this bout standing – he should more than justify his underdog price tag, and I'm happy to back the Hawaiian down to +150 on the moneyline.

Additionally, consider sprinkling Ige to win by KO/TKO (projected +394, listed +450) or including that prop on your round robin tickets.

The Pick: Dan Ige (+170 at Caesars)