Thursday NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Nets vs. Pacers, Bucks vs. Rockets (April 29)
Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- Two games. Three bets. Our Action Network analysts have you covered on Thursday's NBA card with their favorite plays.
- Check out their featured angles below from the Bucks vs. Pacers and Bucks vs. Rockets.
We have a small six-game lineup on Thursday’s NBA card, but that doesn’t mean our Action Network analysts haven’t uncovered three solid plays for your wagering interest.
Our crew is focused on two showdowns, with selections coming in games featuring the Brooklyn Nets taking on Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks going up against the Houston Rockets. We have one player prop, as well as two totals featured in the latter showdown.
Let’s take a look their detailed thoughts, along with their picks, on the card.
NBA Odds & Picks
Nets vs. Pacers
Brandon Anderson: Landry Shamet is certainly no James Harden, but he’s been filling in for Harden as a spot starter with The Beard out and hasn’t been that terrible.
Shamet has started six of his last eight Nets appearances, playing 32.1 minutes per game during that stretch. The numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping, but at 15.0 points and 3.0 assists per game, Shamet has quickly taken to the 3-and-D (defense optional) spot up shooter role the Nets.
During that span, Shamet has attempted 7.8 3-pointers per game. That’s really why Brooklyn went out and got Landry — for his shooting. He’s making 2.9 per game in those games at 37 percent from behind the arc, plus he’s still only a couple makes away from 40% for his NBA career from deep.
That’s the sort of knock-down shooting that makes Brooklyn so deadly, regardless of all the stars it has on its roster.
The total on this game is in the 240s and rising. With Kyrie Irving now out, Shamet should get plenty of minutes and shots up. The most important numbers above are 32.1 and 7.8 for him.
With that many minutes and 3-point attempts, a shooter like Shamet is always going to be a great bet to make at least three and hit our over in this spot. Getting plus juice on top of it is all the better.
Shamet has averaged more than two made 3s per game every season of his career. With the minutes and opportunities up and in a high-scoring game, it makes sense that he’d get one more.
I’ll play the over at any plus number.
Bucks vs. Rockets
Raheem Palmer: The Houston Rockets are 27-34-1 to the under this season for good reason. This has been one of the worst offenses in the league, scoring just 106.8 points per 100 possessions in their non-garbage time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Over the past two weeks, they’ve been even worse, scoring just 101.1 points per 100 possessions. Against a Minnesota Timberwolves defense that is 28th in Defensive Rating (116.5), the Rockets could only muster 107 points on 1.09 points per possession in a game with 103.8 possessions.
I’m having a tough time seeing how this team scores efficiently against a Bucks defense, which is seventh in Defensive Rating (111) and has the personnel to stop its best offensive threats in Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk. Wood is averaging 21.1 points per game on 52.4% shooting while Olynyk is averaging 18.5 points per game on 59.2% shooting.
They score most efficiently at the rim, where they’re in the 88th and 96th percentile, respectively. Those numbers are solid, but they’re facing a Bucks defense with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, which is allowing the sixth-lowest field-goal percentage at the rim (62.5%) this season.
The Bucks are third in opponent points in the paint at 43.1 per game, which doesn’t bode well for a Rockets team that generates most of its offense there. The Rockets are 30th in midrange field-goal percentage (35.4%), as well as 30th in 3-point shooting percentage at 33.8% percent.
Pace is a bit of a concern here, with Milwaukee playing at the second-fastest pace in the league this season. However, the Bucks have still gone under in three games in a row against the Hornets, Hawks and 76ers, so I think they continue to play solid defense against an abysmal Rockets team that could be missing Daniel House and Avery Bradley, further impacting their offense.
I’ll play the Rockets team total under 109.5, as well as the under 234 points.