College Football Odds, Picks: 3 Best Bets for Week 5’s Noon Games, Including Iowa vs. Michigan & Air Force vs. Navy (Oct. 1)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: The Navy Midshipmen.
- Week 5 of the college football season is here, and we're looking to start the week off on a high note.
- Our staff came through with three best bets for Saturday's noon games, including picks for Iowa vs. Michigan and Air Force vs. Navy.
- Check out all three of our best bets for Week 5's noon games below.
After two days of warm-ups on Thursday and Friday, Saturday's college football slate is finally upon us.
Three of the biggest games on Saturday's noon slate are Navy vs. Air Force, Michigan vs. Iowa and Kentucky vs. Ole Miss, and we just happen to have best bets for all three of them.
All three of our college football betting experts like the underdog in their respective matchups. Read on to see why we're expecting these dogs to keep it close in Week 5.
And be sure to check out our eight other best bets for Saturday's afternoon and evening slates below.
Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Navy vs. Air Force
Saturday, Oct. 1 12 p.m. ET CBS |
Navy +14  |
By Stuckey
When you can get a service academy catching 14 or more points, you have to strongly consider backing it. The same goes for any time you can potentially fade a service academy laying over two touchdowns.
Possessions are limited with the clock running throughout, making it very difficult for teams to cover large spreads. And when two service academies play each other, the result is usually an absolute grind since both teams are very familiar with the triple-option, having practiced against it every day.
And with two almost run-exclusive teams, the clock flies.
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The historical against-the-spread splits back this up. Service academies are just 39-55-2 ATS (41.5%) when favored by 14 or more points since 2005. That includes a mark of 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) against fellow triple-option teams.
Meanwhile, the three service academies have gone 42-26-1 (61.8%) as underdogs of at least two touchdowns over that span.
In regard to this particular matchup, Navy’s run defense has actually been extremely solid this season, while Air Force has struggled in that department. I think the Midshipmen can keep this within two scores and wouldn’t look any other way but the under 38 in regard to the total.
Pick: Navy +14
Michigan vs. Iowa
Saturday, Oct. 1 12 p.m. ET FOX |
Iowa +11  |
This could not be more of a vintage Kirk Ferentz spot.
Iowa’s offensive issues have certainly been well documented over the first month of the season, and for good reason.
The Hawkeyes still possess a defense that has allowed just 23 points through four games, though.
J.J. McCarthy has looked the part since taking over the full time quarterback job for Michigan, but he will be stepping up two weight classes Saturday when he takes on the Iowa defense in what will be a raucous Kinnick Stadium.
Neither of these offenses run with much tempo, which will shorten a game where points should already be hard to come by. Expect plenty of punts from both sides, and Iowa once again possesses an elite special teams unit.
Ultimately, I see this game being nip-and-tuck the entire way, so 11 points feels like far too many in what very well could be a rock fight.
As Jim Harbaugh noted, there’s a long history of top-five teams “going to die” in Iowa City. I don’t know if Spencer Petras and the Iowa offense will be able to do enough to pull off the outright upset, but the Hawkeyes will cover this number.
Pick: Iowa +11 (Play to +10)
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Saturday, Oct. 1 12 p.m. ET ESPN |
Kentucky +7  |
Ole Miss has played a pretty easy schedule to this point, having played Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa.
But I want to focus on the Troy and Tulsa games because there is something pretty concerning hidden in those box scores. It’s that Jaxson Dart might be really bad.
In those two games, he threw for 154 yards in each of them, produced under 6.0 yards per attempt and his PFF passing grade was under 58 in both games.
That’s not good news when you are going up against a Kentucky secondary that is top-10 in the nation in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Now, Ole Miss has been running the ball effectively, but this is by far the best front seven it’s seen this season – Kentucky is sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
The Kentucky offense has struggled to run the ball, but its star running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. will make his season debut on Saturday. That’s incredible news for the Kentucky offense because last season, he averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, close to 4.0 yards after contact per attempt and had 37 runs of 10 yards or more.
That will also take some pressure off of Will Levis, who has been pretty average this season.
I only have Ole MIss projected as a -2.4 favorite, so I like Kentucky +7.
Pick: Kentucky +7 (Play to +5)
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