Oregon vs. Washington State Odds & Picks: Saturday’s Over/Under Offers Ample Betting Value
Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon Ducks quarterback Tyler Shough.
- After a strong debut performance last week, head coach Joe Moorhead and the Oregon Ducks strive to build on their established offensive momentum against Washington State in Week 11.
- The Cougars defense struggled in its season opener and could be in for a long day against Oregon's dynamic offense and promising young quarterback Tyler Shough.
- Below, find Darin Gardner's full betting analysis on Oregon vs. Washington State, including updated odds and Gardner's pick for Saturday's game.
Oregon vs. Washington State Odds
|Oregon Odds||-10.5 [BET NOW]|
|Washington State Odds||+10.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-400 / +310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||57.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
Oregon and Washington State head into this matchup undefeated after picking up wins in the first week of the Pac-12 season.
Washington State’s offense does not seem to be suffering after head coach Mike Leach’s departure, as the Cougars racked up 38 points in a 10-point victory against Oregon State.
After winning the Pac-12 a season ago, Oregon is coming off a 21-point triumph against Stanford. The Ducks are heavy favorites to win the conference’s North division.
Before the Ducks’ 37-35 victory over the Cougars last season, Washington State had actually won four consecutive games in this series. Will head coach Nick Rolovich’s new offense keep rolling for the Cougars or will the Ducks be able to slow it down?
The big questions surrounding the Ducks heading into the season were obvious. How would the Oregon offense look after quarterback Justin Herbert left for the NFL and what would ex-Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead bring to the program after taking over at offensive coordinator?
Although the Ducks have played just one game, it seems that Moorhead has provided a significant upgrade as an offensive play caller.
Last season, the Oregon offense performed well, but left a lot to be desired. We have seen Herbert exceed all expectations so far in his rookie NFL season, which makes you wonder why Oregon’s offense wasn’t one of the nation’s best last season.
From what we have seen in 2020, the offensive play-calling could have been holding it back. With Herbert under center, the 2019 offense ranked 65th in pass rate and 84th in plays per game.
I came away very impressed with Moorhead’s first game with the Ducks. Oregon has only played one game, so we can’t overreact too much to that small sample size, but the team ranks highly in many key metrics. The Ducks are currently fifth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and second in Success Rate. Oregon also averaged 7.5 yards per play against Stanford.
In his first game as a starter, quarterback Tyler Shough performed about as well as any coach could have hoped given his lack of experience and the limited off-season. Shough averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt, plus he carried the ball 11 times for 85 yards.
Slough ranks sixth in EPA per play among quarterbacks, again with the small sample-size caveat.
Oregon’s 2019 defense was one of the best in the country, no matter how you looked at it. Several starters return, but the Ducks did lose starting outside cornerback Thomas Graham and projected first-round pick Jevon Holland, who played in the slot.
After its performance against a backup Stanford quarterback in place of Davis Mills, it appears those losses could have been significant.
Right before the game kicked off, Stanford announced that its starting quarterback and top receiver were out due to COVID-19 contact tracing. However, Stanford still moved the ball against a defense that was supposed to be one of the best in the country. The Cardinal averaged 7.2 yards per play, and quarterback Jack West averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.
Stanford also crossed the Oregon 40-yard line 10 times, so there were plenty of scoring opportunities. However, Stanford’s kicker missed four field goals, which made its offensive performance look a lot worse than it actually was. After one game, Oregon’s defense currently ranks 95th in EPA per play.
Washington State Cougars
It was unclear how Washington State’s offense would look after losing its head coach and starting quarterback. The Cougars hired Rolovich from Hawaii as their new head coach, and he is known for running the “Run and Shoot” offense. In Game 1 against Oregon State, the Cougars performed about as well as anyone could have expected given all the offseason attrition.
The new quarterback at Washington State is Jayden de Laura, who is a true freshman from Honolulu. After his first game, he ranks first among all Pac-12 quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus grade and seventh in the country among quarterbacks with at least 40 snaps.
The Cougars averaged 7.2 yards per play against the Beavers and rank 13th nationally in EPA per play, as well as 20th in Success Rate. Washington State found a lot of offensive success in the Leach era, but the beginning of the Rolovich era definitely looks promising.
While the Cougars’ offense performed well against Oregon State, the defense is still a work in progress. Washington State’s defense ranked 124th in EPA per play in 2019, and it continued to struggle in the first game of the season.
The Cougars allowed Oregon State — with brand new quarterback Tristan Gebbia — to pile up 459 yards and a 53% Success Rate. Although it was just one game, the Cougars’ 53% Success Rate allowed would rank as the fourth-worst in the country. Gebbia completed 70.8% of his passes and racked up 329 yards.
In addition to ranking fourth-worst in Success Rate Allowed, the Cougars also rank 100th in EPA per play on the defensive side of the ball.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Although both of these offenses had to deal with a lot of offseason departures, we have not seen any indications of either taking a step back thus far. Washington State struggled mightily on defense in 2019, and it seems to be continuing this season.
Meanwhile, Oregon had a very disappointing defensive performance against a team that had already struggled on offense and was missing its starting quarterback and top receiver.
My numbers show one of my biggest edges of the week on this total, as I project it at 64.5. With the number sitting at 57.5, I really like the over here.
Pick: Total Over 57.5 points