The Miami Hurricanes take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2025 Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Arlington, Texas, on Wednesday, Dec. 31. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ohio State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 40.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, December 31.
Miami vs Ohio State Prediction
- Miami vs. Ohio State Pick: Miami +9
My Ohio State vs. Miami best bet is on the Hurricanes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Ohio State Odds
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| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Miami vs Ohio State Spread: Ohio State -9.5, Miami +9.5
- Miami vs Ohio State Over/Under: 40.5 Points
- Miami vs Ohio State Moneyline: Miami +280, Ohio State -350
Miami vs Ohio State College Football Playoff Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Stepping Up to the Plate
Miami advanced in the playoff after a defensive throttle of Texas A&M in College Station. The high-powered Aggies offense was limited to just a single explosive drive and a field goal in three red-zone attempts.
The Hurricanes flexed when defending the pass, intercepting Marcel Reed twice while keeping the potent receiving unit to a minimal impact.
Miami has been doing this all season for defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, ranking top-15 in nearly every defensive category. This is the best pass rush in the nation, also fielding a top coverage unit that primarily uses Cover 3.
The Miami offense did enough against Texas A&M with 5.7 yards per play, but the Hurricanes failed to create a methodical drive of at least 10 plays in 12 offensive positions.
Quarterback Carson Beck leads an attack that has poor rankings in explosives, but is top-20 in creating quality drives. Beck threw for only 103 yards, with Keelan Marion and Malachi Toney generating the highest target share.
While the defense is the best at generating a pass rush, the offensive line ranks second in pass blocking.
The balanced attack is predicated on the Success Rate of running back Mark Fletcher Jr. in standard downs. The junior tore through the Aggies' run defenders for 172 yards on inside zone and man blocking run concepts.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
Ohio State will be on 25 days' rest when the Cotton Bowl is set to kick off. The Buckeyes are looking for a better result after losing the Big Ten Championship to eventual Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. and Indiana.
Head coach Ryan Day, who will now call plays with offensive coordinator Brian Hartline heading to USF, saw his offense post high Success Rate numbers on the ground and through the air.
Half of the Buckeyes' nine possessions featured an explosive or methodical drive, but red-zone issues led to the loss against the Hoosiers.
Although Ohio State is second nationally in Finishing Drives, that number falls off in the red zone. The Buckeyes rank 43rd in red-zone scoring, generating just a single field goal and touchdown in tries against Indiana.
Day is expected to create more opportunities for the elite wide receiver combination of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Personnel is expected to change, with Hartline's 12 personnel sets with two tight ends decreasing against the Hurricanes.
The biggest issue for Ohio State on the offensive side of the ball is protecting quarterback Julian Sayin from a Havoc-minded Miami defense. Sayin was sacked five times on 12 pressures against Indiana.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's 4-2-5 defense held up against Indiana, proving top-10 rankings in Success Rate and limiting explosive plays.
Ohio State has failed to create a tough pass rush unit, but edge Caden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson Jr. generated 11 pressures and three sacks of Mendoza.
The Buckeyes have been the best defense in the nation, limiting standard downs explosives — an area where Miami ranks bottom-15 nationally.
Caleb Downs has been one of the best free safeties in the nation in creating one-on-one tackles, but linebacker Sonny Styles stole the show in the Big Ten Championship with 12 tackles and three assists.
Miami vs Ohio State Pick, Betting Analysis
There's no expectation that Miami will generate any explosive plays against the Ohio State defense.
The Hurricanes are near dead last in Rush EPA and 71st in Pass EPA, heading straight into a Buckeyes defense that's top-five nationally in limiting chunk yardage.
Success on first down will be crucial for Miami, leading to the run concept usage with Fletcher. Miami runs a high rate of inside zone, pivoting between single and double tight end sets.
The secondary run concept is man blocking, as both run tendencies have a high 64% Success Rate.
Ohio State has ended offenses running inside zone and man-blocking concepts. The Buckeyes support a Success Rate of 56% or better against man blocking concepts without giving up a single explosive play the entire season.
The expectations for Day's offense are similar to the playoff run from a season ago: Get the ball into their receivers' hands with tempo. Ohio State has been a slug this season, averaging one of the slowest paces nationally at 31.8 seconds per play.
The Buckeyes have two glaring issues against the Miami defense.
First is a pass rush that will test the offensive tackle position. Left tackle Austin Siereveld ranks as a top-20 individual pass blocker, but right tackle Phillip Daniels sits outside the top 100. Miami edge Akheem Mesidor will get the assignment to put pressure on Sayin.
The second issue is a lack of consistent run game with Bo Jackson using zone read and counter concepts. Miami dominates both inside and outside zone, particularly when teams go lighter in the box as expected with Ohio State.
Opponents using counter have had no success against a Hurricanes stop unit with a 63% Success Rate against the concept.
The Cotton Bowl quarterfinal is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
Ohio State will find little success on the ground before facing an intense pass rush in late downs. The Buckeyes' rank of 68th in Stuff Rate will play a factor in short third- and fourth-down attempts.
Conversely, Miami has failed to create explosive plays the entire season.
With both offenses in a presumed rock fight, special teams could come in to play as the deciding factor. Miami ranks 12th in Special Teams SP+ compared to Ohio State's rank of 63rd. The Hurricanes excel as one of the top teams in punt and kickoff efficiency, so field position could be an advantage for head coach Mario Cristobal.
Action Network projects the spread lower than a touchdown, giving value to Miami in the current market.
A sinking total has been expected with the lack of offense. With such low scoring expected, the team with the better pass rush and special teams should do enough to potentially shake up the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Miami +9 or Better
