The Michigan Wolverines take on the Texas Longhorns in the 2025 Citrus Bowl in Orlando on Wednesday, Dec. 31. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +235 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, December 31.
Michigan vs Texas Prediction
- Michigan vs. Texas Pick: Under 48.5 or Better
My Texas vs. Michigan best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs Texas Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 +100 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -120 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
- Michigan vs Texas Spread: Texas -7, Michigan +7
- Michigan vs Texas Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Michigan vs Texas Moneyline: Michigan +235, Texas -300
Michigan vs Texas Citrus Bowl Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: No Sweeping Changes Despite Turmoil
Despite undergoing one of the most public coaching changes in the last decade of sports — and yet, somehow, maybe not even the noisiest this FBS cycle — Michigan doesn’t expect sweeping absences in the Citrus Bowl.
There are some names to know, however.
Edge rusher Derrick Moore and linebacker Jaishawn Barham, both NFL prospects, opted out of this game. Starting guard Giovannni El-Hadi will also sit.
But the rest of the roster reportedly made it to Orlando.
There are several injuries to note.
Linebacker Ernest Hausmann, a team captain, missed the final two games with a thumb injury. Running backs Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall were both banged up to finish the year. And upwards of five preseason starters were at varying levels of hurt at bowl practice.
Biff Poggi steps in as the interim for this bowl game. Poggi has strong ties to Michigan and seems popular among players. Although he won’t be the full-time head coach next season (that goes to Kyle Whittingham), Poggi will be retained on the staff.
Offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey leaves the program for Missouri and won’t coach in this game, but defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will.
Michigan will bring in BYU’s Jay Hill for next year, marking the final game in Maize and Blue for Martindale.
Early on, it appears quarterback Bryce Underwood will stay in Ann Arbor. At the very least, he’s not sold on leaving via the transfer portal. Barring a major surprise, there’s no reason to think he won’t play on Wednesday.
But this offense runs on the shoulders of its backs, Haynes and Marshall.
Michigan ranks 13th nationally in Rush EPA and 20th in Rushing Success Rate. Marshall provides a real explosive threat. He exited the Ohio State game early on and did not return, but he has had a month to recover.
Underwood also showed flashes this year. Against stouter defenses, he crumbled, but there’s some semblance of a playmaker in there, if not the unheralded quarterback prospect he was tabbed this July.
Defense was a bit contentious in Ann Arbor.
Michigan allowed 2.97 points per quality drive (23rd) and, at its best, cleaned up against the run.
But Martindale hasn’t been the most popular coordinator at Michigan, and teams were able to move the ball against a talented Wolverines defense when it was bullied up front (31 to USC, 27 to Nebraska, and 27 to Ohio State).
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: A Barrage of Exits
You may want to find somewhere comfortable to sit for this review of absences.
Texas is without at least seven of its top 11 defenders (by snap count), a trio of running backs, and potentially multiple offensive linemen.
Three of Texas’s four team captains already opted out of this game for one reason or another.
Cornerback Malik Muhammad and edge rusher Trey Moore are both off to the NFL, while running back CJ Baxter hit the transfer portal.
The remaining captain, tackle Trevor Goosby, is undecided if he will leave Texas for the pros – that’ll likely come down to his projection. He said he will play in this bowl.
Additionally, safety Michael Taaffe and linebacker Anthony Hill are both out as they prepare for a life in the NFL.
Behind Baxter, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson hit the portal, leaving the Longhorns with redshirt freshman Christian Clark (36 carries) and freshman James Simon (28 carries).
Quarterback Arch Manning returns to Austin next year and will play on Wednesday. He leads the remaining Longhorns with 70 carries and eight rushing touchdowns.
He’s without second-leading receiver DeAndre Moore but does retain explosive threats in Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone.
Manning, at times, flashed playmaking ability. He improved slightly this season, but there were times when he was downright atrocious.
Manning has a lot of problems with his throwing mechanics, and he’s often a beat late on deliveries (both from processing and his loopy throwing motion). When pressured, his productivity goes right out the window.
When opposing offenses found success (see: Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt), it was against quarterbacks who spread the ball out through the air.
The run defense remained stout, holding teams to the fourth-worst Rush EPA and 13th-worst Rushing Success Rate this season. But without some of the big names like Hill, Moore, and Burke, that stoutness likely regresses slightly.
Texas also changed out its defensive coordinator, relieving Pete Kwiatkowski of his duties and bringing in Will Muschamp for 2026.
Michigan vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
Texas opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this game, but climbed to an 8.5-point favorite following the coaching shakeup at Michigan.
The over/under opened at 46.5 and jumped to 48.5. But two things don’t quite add up for this line movement.
First, Texas’s roster is significantly more affected by opt-outs than Michigan’s.
Second, mid-level bowls between Power Conference programs with sweeping absences breed Unders.
So, that’s exactly where we’re going.
Neither team runs a breakneck pace on offense. Both teams average 63 plays per game (102nd nationally), and Michigan snaps the ball about every 27.5 seconds (90th).
Much of Michigan’s offensive success comes on the ground, and there are questions about their backs’ health. That also plays into Texas’ defensive strength, whether or not its top guys are on the field.
Against better and more disciplined defenses, the Longhorns’ offense ground to a halt, especially when Manning was pressured.
Georgia logged 19 pressures and three sacks, and Texas was held to 10 points; Florida managed a mind-boggling 26 pressures and six sacks, holding Texas to 21 points; Mississippi State even logged 18 pressures and five sacks — Texas was held to 14 points in the first three quarters before the wheels fell completely off for State (24 fourth-quarter points for Texas).
Michigan’s defensive front isn’t as nasty as it’s been in recent years, but it can still generate pressure without the need to blitz. Moore (11 sacks) is a big absence in this department.
The weather in Orlando isn’t terrible by most standards, but Wednesday is forecast to be one of the chillier days this year.
This is also a consolation prize for two teams expected to compete in the College Football Playoff.
Unders are 17-11 so far this bowl season, and for examples of what happens in bowls of this level between programs of this level, look to Clemson-Penn State and Virginia-Missouri — hell, even BYU and Georgia Tech drew to just 46 points. That bowl was far more amped than this.
Pick: Under 48.5 or Better
