The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Florida, on Wednesday, Dec. 31. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Vanderbilt is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. Iowa, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +175 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45 total points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, December 31.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt Prediction
- Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Iowa +3.5 or Better
My Vanderbilt vs. Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -210 |
- Iowa vs Vanderbilt Spread: Vanderbilt -5.5, Iowa +5.5
- Iowa vs Vanderbilt Over/Under: 45 Points
- Iowa vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Iowa +175, Vanderbilt -210
Iowa vs Vanderbilt ReliaQuest Bowl Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Defense Sets the Floor
Iowa’s defense is truly elite, even by its usual standards. The Hawkeyes rank in the top 20 in available yards allowed, forcing opponents into long drives that end in field goals.
Everything Iowa does well on defense directly challenges what Vanderbilt needs to succeed.
The Hawkeyes are extremely strong against the run concepts the Vandy offense likes to run, giving me more doubt that the Commodores can score as much as they typically do.
Now, let’s address the obvious issue: Iowa’s offense. It hasn’t looked good, and it hasn’t even been average.
But here’s the key: this is a matchup where Iowa might actually look competent, and that’s all the team needs.
Vanderbilt’s defense has given up yards all season. The Commodores rank 128th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed, 122nd in third- and fourth-down Success Rate allowed and 88th in available yards allowed.
That’s a problem in general, which provides a boost to a struggling Iowa offense.
Iowa doesn’t need to become explosive suddenly; it just needs to avoid getting stuck in long-yardage situations. Against a Vanderbilt secondary that has allowed big plays to everyone, the Hawkeyes have a real chance to do that.
Hidden yards are important, too.
Iowa ranks 11th nationally in starting field position, while Vanderbilt ranks in the mid-40s. This kind of advantage doesn’t show up in highlight reels, but it can make a big difference in close bowl games.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: What Changes Without Stowers?
Let’s start with the most important opt-out: Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers, the Mackey Award winner and the key to the Commodores' passing game.
Losing him isn’t just losing a weapon; it’s losing the player who makes the whole offense work. Stowers is extremely tough to defend, the top option on key downs and the player defenses always had to watch.
Without him, Vanderbilt is much easier to defend, which is a big problem against an Iowa defense that thrives on making teams predictable on early downs.
Vanderbilt’s offense has strong stats. The Commodores rank third nationally in EPA Per Pass, sixth in EPA Per Rush and third in available yards rate.
But much of that success came from Stowers stretching the middle of the field and putting pressure on linebackers. With him out, Vanderbilt loses that edge, and Iowa isn't the team you want to face while making adjustments on offense.
Also, the Hawkeyes' scheme is designed to slow down run-first offenses that depend on rhythm. Vanderbilt wants to stay on schedule, get into manageable second-down situations, use play-action and set up big plays.
But Iowa’s defense makes teams uncomfortable. That’s tough when the best player at moving the chains is out.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt Pick, Betting Analysis
It's tough to fade Diego Pavia in his final collegiate game (potentially), but I can't lay it with Vanderbilt here.
Overall, this point spread seems too high based on season-long stats that don’t match the current contest.
Iowa’s defense can take away what Vanderbilt does best, Stowers’ absence removes a massive weapon for the Vanderbilt offense, and the Hawkeyes offense finally faces a defense it can succeed against.
With more than a field goal to work with, I’m taking the team that’s healthier, stronger on defense and better prepared to control the game.
I expect this to be a terrific game that comes down to the wire, so I'll happily take the points.
Pick: Iowa +3.5 or Better
Iowa vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends
