Michigan vs. Indiana Odds & Picks: Betting Value on the Over/Under for Saturday’s Top 25 Big Ten Matchup (Nov. 7)
James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Stevie Scott III.
- After suffering a tough loss to Michigan State, the Michigan Wolverines will travel to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers.
- Collin Wilson doesn't think either team will have a problem putting points on the board in the Big Ten East matchup.
- Check out Wilson's full college football betting analysis with updated odds below.
Michigan vs. Indiana Odds
|Michigan Odds||-3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Indiana Odds||+3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-180 / +150 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||54.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
There are plenty of takeaways from the Wolverines’ first two games. Two of the leading stories deal with quarterback Joe Milton’s accuracy and the execution of the defensive backfield.
Starting on the defensive side of the ball, the Michigan State passing attack completed nine passes for 15-plus yards. The Spartans were explosive but not successful, posting just a 30% Success Rate on passing downs. Michigan State tore through the Michigan secondary and won as a three-touchdown underdog despite falling below national averages in two-plus first down drives and overall Success Rate.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 31, 2020
Cornerback Gemon Green has been targeted 18 times already this season and has posted an opponent receiving rate of 28%, but the other two cornerbacks have been torched. Vincent Gray is allowing opposing offenses a 71% reception rate at 38.6 yards per catch. If corner play cannot rebound opposite of Green, every quarterback in the Big Ten will target the Wolverines through the air.
It has been a tale of two different quarterbacks when Milton is under center. The junior has posted a 67% completion rate without pressure, but when defenses bring the heat, Milton has posted a 59.7 quarterback rating. The biggest difference is in the adjusted completion percentage, better known as the number of aimed passes thrown on target. Milton’s passing attempts dip to 24% in adjusted completion percentage when the defense sends pressure.
The Hoosiers didn’t have a hangover after opening their season with a win over Penn State. A remaining schedule that includes road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin loom, but optimism has never been higher in Bloomington. Indiana holds a ranking of ninth in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball, as both the offense and defense have performed best in scoring opportunities. Indiana best numbers coming in passing attempts, where the Hoosiers posted a 52% Success Rate and 8.7 yards per play against Rutgers.
Another big game for @IndianaFootball QB Michael Penix Jr. and the Hoosiers move on to 2-0.
Highlights from the game at Rutgers: pic.twitter.com/nYBgGT7Eag
— Indiana On BTN (@IndianaOnBTN) October 31, 2020
The defense has been middling in plenty of categories, including Pro Football Focus’ grades in coverage and tackling. Penn State and Rutgers pushed the Hoosiers’ rank in Defensive Rushing Success Rate to 56th, but Indiana does its best work when the field gets shorter. In just eight combined red-zone attempts from Penn State and Rutgers, only half have resulted in a score.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The biggest handicap with the Michigan offense is the ability to keep a clean pocket for Milton. Michigan has posted a Sack Rate of eighth for an offense that passes on 54% of downs.
Indiana is graded 76th in pass rush by PFF, accumulating just six hurries through two games. The Wolverines’ rush explosiveness will get Milton into scoring opportunities, but Michigan must continue a high touchdown ratio. Only one of the nine Michigan scores in the red zone have been from a field goal.
As Michigan should get into scoring position, the question remains whether or not Indiana can attack cornerbacks not named Gemon Green. Michael Penix Jr’s most successful passing has come in the 10- to 20-yard range working from the middle out to the sideline, per PFF.
With both teams ranking in the top 36 in pace, there may be plenty of quick scoring opportunities in this game. Our Pace Report calls for the total to land close to the number on the market. Both quarterbacks should have success — Penix Jr. against a struggling secondary and Milton without pressure. Look for multiple scoring opportunities to turn into points.
Pick: Over 54 or better