Georgia vs. Florida Betting Odds & Pick: Spread Providing Value For Bulldogs
David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Georgia offensive line and Florida defensive line.
Georgia vs. Florida Odds
|Georgia Odds||-3 [BET NOW]|
|Florida Odds||+3 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-141/+117 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||54.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
The Bulldogs kept the offense at a low gear in last week’s grudge match against Kentucky. Georgia ran just 57 plays and passed only 14 times. Stetson Bennett was limited in attempts after an interception followed an explosive pass on the Bulldogs’ third drive. Georgia did gain five yards per carry on 43 rushing attempts, giving plenty of reps to Zamir White in preparation for a pliable Florida front seven.
Zamir White in a 14-3 win vs. Kentucky : 26 carries for 136 yards & a TD (Career-highs in carries & rushing yards) pic.twitter.com/0eQ55VyHVy
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) October 31, 2020
The biggest news for the defense comes off the field, as Richard LeCounte was injured in a motorcycle crash. Georgia is a top-25 team in coverage, but the loss of LeCounte will be felt, as the senior ranked 17th in the nation in passes defended. The most noticeable element from the Kentucky offensive attack was the consistency in which the pile moved. The advanced numbers back that up, as Georgia ranks 92nd in Power Success and 97th in Stuff Rate.
Fistfights and Darth Vader post-game pressers — all in a week of Florida football returning from a three-week break.
The Missouri game was business as usual for the Gators with the passing attack gaining 10 plays of 15 yards or more while averaging 9.6 yards per play. Kyle Trask found Kyle Pitts on eight targets for an average of 10 yards per target. Trask also found three other targets for his four touchdowns, as Kadarius Toney went for two scores out of the backfield.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 1, 2020
While the Florida offense continues to be one of the best in the country, the defense is still struggling in multiple areas. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has leaks in the boat from ranks of 92nd in opponent third-down conversions, 101st in Opponent Rushing Success Rate and 65th and 55th in Sack Rate. Through four games, opposing offenses have shredded Florida after passing the line of scrimmage. Out of 103 active teams in FBS, the Gators rank 97th in tackling just edging out UMass in Pro Football Focus grading.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There is one outstanding stat that cannot be overlooked when comparing Georgia and Florida: tackling.
The Gators have seven different defenders with at least four missed tackles. In comparison, the Bulldogs will not field a single defender with more than three. Georgia will likely find plenty of success rushing against the Gators, and if the missed tackles are not resolved, White may take a few attempts for six points.
The loss of LeCounte will put all eyes on the Georgia secondary in its attempt to stop one of the best passing attacks in the nation. Three cornerbacks are ranked highly in coverage, but safeties Major Burns and Christopher Smith must step up. The middle of the field has been feasting territory for Trask, as he’s completed 16-of-23 passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions in pass plays longer than 10 yards between the hashes.
Florida ranks third in Offensive Finishing Drives, but the Georgia defense will be its stiffest test in the red zone. Expect both teams to have multiple opportunities in scoring position, but Georgia’s execution in tackling and special teams to get the Bulldogs to the window.
Picks: Georgia -3; Over 53.5 or better