Georgia-South Carolina Betting Guide: Are Gamecocks Ready for Big Stage?

Georgia-South Carolina Betting Guide

• Odds: Georgia -8.5
• Over/Under: 54
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Is this a reset year for Georgia, by the new Georgia standards, anyway? We'll have a much better idea this weekend.

The Bulldogs play a pivotal conference game at South Carolina on Saturday. If the Gamecocks pull off an upset as 10-point underdogs, the SEC East race will get a whole lot more interesting.

Market Moves

By Danny Donohue

After opening as a 9-point favorite, Georgia moved up to the key number of -10 before some late money pushed it down to 8.5, just as ourline predictor expected.

The over/under endured a similar rollercoaster, opening at 51.5 and getting as high as 56.5 before dropping down to 54 on gameday.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

In SEC games, South Carolina is the most profitable team in the conference as a home underdog of 10 or more points at 13-4-1 ATS. Under Will Muschamp, the Gamecocks are 3-0-1 ATS.

By Evan Abrams

The Georgia-South Carolina over/under opened at 51.5 and has since been bet up to about 56. When two SEC teams see their over/under rise a point or more since 2005, the under cashes at a rate of 55.6%, profiting bettors 23 units in that span.

When the total sits below 60, that rate balloons to 58.1%, profiting bettors 29.6 units.

Weather Report

By Mark Gallant

The average temperature in South Carolina is expected to be a toasty 90 degrees, which has historically led to more points.

In nearly 150 games in our database, the over has hit 59.2% of the time with a temperature of at least 90 degrees.

However, you’d be a bit late to the party if you took the over now, since the over has moved five points.

Key Matchups

By Steve Petrella

South Carolina wide receiver Deebo Samuel against Georgia cornerback Deandre Baker is certainly the most interesting matchup.

Samuel is electric in so many ways — he averaged an absurd 11.4 yards per target and 68% catch rate with six total touchdowns (three receiving, two return, one rushing) in three games before breaking his leg. Baker is one of the best coverage corners in the country.

Pro Football Focus ranked Baker as the No. 7 overall player in the country entering the season. It ranked Samuel No. 33.

But the other coverage matchup could be much more important than Baker vs. Samuel.

Opposite Baker will likely be Georgia true freshman Tyson Campbell, who has to deal with Bryan Edwards. Edwards caught 64 passes for 793 yards on 101 targets last season and developed into Bentley's favorite target — even more than first-round tight end Hayden Hurst. With Samuel back, South Carolina has two dangerous weapons against a somewhat green Bulldogs secondary.

Bet to Watch

By Ken Barkley

As you see from the trends above, this is the role Will Muschamp was born for — huge underdog. Although I lost money on Coastal Carolina last week playing against Muschamp as a big favorite (the Chanticleers came up just short), this is really where you want to back him.

In last year’s game in Athens, the Gamecocks were outgained 438-270, and the Bulldogs had almost twice as many first downs, yet Muschamp and company easily covered as 23.5-point dogs, losing by just 14.

South Carolina played that game without running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who were injured earlier in the year. They’re both back, and each scored a touchdown last week. In general, South Carolina’s actually pretty healthy on the two-deep, something you could basically never say last season.

With each team having such minimal returning defensive production, the Gamecocks' offense will have to do the heavy lifting here. Considering what an unknown quantity Georgia’s defense is this year (we have only last week’s vague data point to go off of), and how much they have to replace, catching them this early could really benefit South Carolina.

I won’t be betting the game given how much uncertainty is involved on both sides, but would lean the Gamecocks at the current numbers.