Missouri-Oklahoma State Betting Guide: Expect a Shootout in 2018 Liberty Bowl?

2018 Liberty Bowl Betting Odds: Missouri-Oklahoma State

• Odds: Missouri -9
• Over/Under: 72.5
• Date: Monday, Dec. 31
• Location: Memphis, Tenn.
• Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Missouri hung tough in every SEC game this season and finished 8-4, but probably deserved a little better. Oklahoma State fared much better as an underdog than a favorite. The Pokes knocked off Texas and almost did the same to Oklahoma in high-scoring games.

Are we in store for more offense from two excellent quarterbacks, or is the total spot on? Let's dive in.

Market Movement for Missouri-Oklahoma State

By Danny Donahue

According to most bettors, this line, which opened at Mizzou -10, has been set too high. Sixty percent of bets accounting for 80% of money wagered have taken the points, which contributed to Missouri dropping all the way down to -7.5.

Since then, the line has moved a bit back toward the Tigers, who are now listed at -9 (see live data here).

And although it’s one of the higher totals of bowl season, bettors aren’t shying away from the over. Seventy-four percent of bettors and 55% of dollars are backing the over, driving this total up from 71 to 72.5.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

— Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout, but since 2005, in bowl games with over/under of 70 or more points, the over is only 20-17-1, including 0-2-1 the past two seasons.

By Evan Abrams

— Did You Know? Twenty bowl games have been played since 2005 where one of the participants’ defense is coming off a shutout — none of those 20 bowl games were played with an over/under above 65.5.

— Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are the lone two teams remaining in bowl season averaging 30+ PPG on offense and allowing 30+ PPG on defense.

Since 2005, backing those teams in bowl games has not gone well: 26-50-1 ATS (34.2%) in bowl season.

Over the last two seasons (2017 and 2018), these teams are 1-14 ATS, not counting the Memphis-Wake Forest bowl game this season where both teams fell into this spot.

Missouri Has an Elite Rush Defense

By Steve Petrella

You may not think of Missouri as ferocious in the trenches, but that's what the Tigers were this season. They ranked No. 7 in S&P+ rushing defense.

Only once all year did Mizzou allow more than 4.7 yards per rush — to Vanderbilt. Not against Alabama, not against Georgia. I'd even say the Tigers dominated in the trenches against Georgia.

The secondary wasn't quite the same, ranking 67th in S&P+ passing defense. Oklahoma State will be without star running back Justice Hill, but was balanced on offense all season.

Does Drew Lock Have One More Big Game Against a Bad Defense in Him?

By Steve Petrella

Drew Lock has torched bad teams and struggled against good ones for most of his career. That's normal for anyone, but the splits were extreme.

• vs. Georgia: 4.6 yards per attempt
• vs. Alabama: 5.5 yards per attempt
• vs. Kentucky: 6.1 yards per attempt
• vs. everyone else: 8.75 yards per attempt

Fortunately for him, Oklahoma State ranked 76th in yards per attempt allowed this season. The total is high, but Lock should have time to throw and make a statement in his final college game.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

While the Sun Bowl pits two of the slowest-paced teams in all of FBS, the Liberty Bowl will feel like warp speed. Missouri loves to run tempo and has an adjusted pace ranking of 31st. Oklahoma State not only has an adjusted pace of sixth, the Pokes have a standard downs run rate of 102nd.

Expect Mike Gundy to keep Oklahoma State throwing, as the Missouri rush defense ranks seventh in S&P+ and fourth against rush explosiveness. Missouri is 122nd in passing downs sack rate, meaning Oklahoma State quarterback Taylor Cornelius will have plenty of time to throw.

Ultimately, it is the Oklahoma State pass defense that may be the difference in this game. The Pokes ranks 97th in opponents pass completion percentage and 83rd in allowing pass explosiveness. That may be enough for Missouri Lock, who is expected to be a high pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Lock has said that last year's Texas Bowl still serves as motivation, and a bit of redemption may come at the expense of Oklahoma State, who beat Texas this season. Take the Tigers and expect to see them have plenty of success in the passing game.

Collin's Pick: Missouri -9