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Missouri-Oklahoma State Betting Guide: Expect a Shootout in 2018 Liberty Bowl?

Dec 31, 2018 3:00 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Lock and Taylor Cornelius

2018 Liberty Bowl Betting Odds: Missouri-Oklahoma State

  • Odds: Missouri -9
  • Over/Under: 72.5
  • Date: Monday, Dec. 31
  • Location: Memphis, Tenn.
  • Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Sunday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets


Missouri hung tough in every SEC game this season and finished 8-4, but probably deserved a little better. Oklahoma State fared much better as an underdog than a favorite. The Pokes knocked off Texas and almost did the same to Oklahoma in high-scoring games.

Are we in store for more offense from two excellent quarterbacks, or is the total spot on? Let’s dive in.

Market Movement for Missouri-Oklahoma State

By Danny Donahue

According to most bettors, this line, which opened at Mizzou -10, has been set too high. Sixty percent of bets accounting for 80% of money wagered have taken the points, which contributed to Missouri dropping all the way down to -7.5.

Since then, the line has moved a bit back toward the Tigers, who are now listed at -9 (see live data here).

And although it’s one of the higher totals of bowl season, bettors aren’t shying away from the over. Seventy-four percent of bettors and 55% of dollars are backing the over, driving this total up from 71 to 72.5.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

— Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout, but since 2005, in bowl games with over/under of 70 or more points, the over is only 20-17-1, including 0-2-1 the past two seasons.

By Evan Abrams

— Did You Know? Twenty bowl games have been played since 2005 where one of the participants’ defense is coming off a shutout — none of those 20 bowl games were played with an over/under above 65.5.

— Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are the lone two teams remaining in bowl season averaging 30+ PPG on offense and allowing 30+ PPG on defense.

Since 2005, backing those teams in bowl games has not gone well: 26-50-1 ATS (34.2%) in bowl season.

Over the last two seasons (2017 and 2018), these teams are 1-14 ATS, not counting the Memphis-Wake Forest bowl game this season where both teams fell into this spot.

Missouri Has an Elite Rush Defense

By Steve Petrella

You may not think of Missouri as ferocious in the trenches, but that’s what the Tigers were this season. They ranked No. 7 in S&P+ rushing defense.

Only once all year did Mizzou allow more than 4.7 yards per rush — to Vanderbilt. Not against Alabama, not against Georgia. I’d even say the Tigers dominated in the trenches against Georgia.

The secondary wasn’t quite the same, ranking 67th in S&P+ passing defense. Oklahoma State will be without star running back Justice Hill, but was balanced on offense all season.

Does Drew Lock Have One More Big Game Against a Bad Defense in Him?

By Steve Petrella