Penn State-Pitt Betting Guide: Nittany Lions Will Rebound

Penn State-Pitt Betting Guide

• Odds: Penn State -8.5
• Over/Under: 55
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ABC

We still don't know how Penn State will fare this season after it lost its star running back, offensive coordinator and so many key defensive pieces this offseason. Saturday night could give us a clearer picture.

The Nittany Lions meet rival Pitt in prime time, looking to bounce back from a near-shocker against Appalachian State last week.

These two teams have split the first two meetings in their four-game series set from 2016-2019. The 2016 Pitt win played a major part in keeping Penn State out of the College Football Playoff.

Market Moves

By Danny Donohue

It’s been a roller coaster for this line since it opened. Right off the bat, it took a nose dive from -9 to -7.5, but was since bet right back up to -9. With close to 50-50 betting, it looks to be anyone’s guess where it’ll end up, as sharps have yet to make a clear mark on it.

The total, however, seems to have sharp bettors in agreement. It’s fallen from 58 to 56 behind only 43% of bets on the under, as those bets have accounted for 80% of the money wagered, meaning sharps are expecting this one to stay under the total.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

Early betting action has moved Pittsburgh from a home underdog of +9 to +8.5. Historically, the Panthers have been profitable as an underdogs of 7 or more points, but there is a clear split:

• Home 3-7 ATS
• Road 14-4-1 ATS

ByEvan Abrams

James Franklin is 52-37-4 ATS (58.4%), profiting bettors 12.7 units in his career at Vanderbilt and Penn State. Since taking the Vandy job in 2011, Franklin is the eighth-most profitable coach in FBS.

In his career as a head coach with Vandy and Penn State, Franklin is 12-4-1 ATS (+7.6 units) when failing to cover the spread by double digits in his previous game, like he did last week against App State. In those 17 games, Franklin’s teams are covering by 10.2 PPG.

Key Metric

By Steve Petrella

The Action Network's home-field advantage ratings give Pitt 1.74 points on the spread for being at Heinz Field — 101st of 130 teams in FBS. Our power ratings have Penn State 12 points better on a neutral field, meaning this line should be higher than 10, just based on the metrics.

Despite the proximity and Penn State's alumni base in Pittsburgh, Panthers fans seemed to represent slightly more of the record crowd at Heinz Field in 2016.

Bet to Watch

By Ken Barkley

Conventional wisdom the past couple years has been that Pitt thinks this game is infinitely more important than Penn State does. The two teams have played almost 100 times, but the rivalry may be ending after next year’s installment.

Penn State is back to being nationally prominent and recruiting at a top-15 level, and Pitt is…not doing those things. The most recent installment of the rivalry has been relatively successful for the overlooked Panthers, even if just from an ATS standpoint — two years ago they beat Penn State as a small favorite before the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten. And last year they barely covered as a 21-point dog, losing 33-14.

This year, I think the number is a little too small, and a bit of an overreaction to what we saw last week. Is Penn State really that much worse than previous years' teams, or was this a case of a defense with two returning starters and a lot of new playmakers making a lot of first-time mistakes against a team that almost always engineers upset bids?

If you downgrade Penn State too much,  you’re not giving that App State staff enough credit for how it prepares for contests against Power 5 teams. After an overtime scare last week, it’s hard to imagine Penn State overlooking anyone at this point, with so many fixes to engineer, especially in the secondary.

My guess is this week of practice is amped up a bit more. The return of two defensive-line rotation players who missed last week’s game should help, too.

Pitt disposed of Albany last week, and while 33-7 seems dominant enough, there are still questions to ask. On the bright side, it was 33-7 at halftime, with Kenny Pickett having three total touchdowns at quarterback.

On the other hand, the starters, including Pickett, played every second-half possession except the final one, and scored zero additional points, turning it over twice. Albany ended up pretty close in both total yards and first downs in the final numbers.

I think it’s safe to call that a mixed bag against an FCS team — no matter how qualified it may be.

I think whatever Penn State’s best is right now, you’re going to get it Saturday, and considering the talent advantages at basically every position, that should be enough to cover the number.

The Pick: I’m taking Penn State at anything under 10.