TCU-SMU Betting Guide: Can the Mustangs Look Any Worse?

Sep 07, 2018 1:00 PM EDT

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derius Davis

TCU-SMU Betting Odds

  • Odds: TCU -22.5
  • Over/Under: 58.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.

The Sonny Dykes era in Dallas has picked up right where it left off.

Dykes coached SMU’s bowl game last season, a 51-10 loss to Louisiana Tech, just weeks after taking the job. The Mustangs then turned in one of the worst performances in college football in Week 1 on Saturday, getting outgained by nearly 300 yards in a 46-23 blowout loss to North Texas.

SMU was even worse than the final score indicates, since it scored 23 points in garbage time in the fourth.

TCU cruised to a 55-7 win over Southern in Week 1.

Last year, TCU beat SMU 56-36 in a game with more than 1,000 total yards.

Market Moves

By Danny Donohue

TCU has jumped from -17.5 all the way up to -22.5, passing over the key number of 21. With 76% of bets on the Horned Frogs, though, much of the cause for this move is simply public betting. Smart money is coming in on both sides, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see some SMU buyback if the line were to hit 23.

What sharps are in agreement on, however, is the total. It’s dropped from 64 to 58.5 behind only 28% of bets as smart money is pounding the under. Those 28% of bets account for 44% of dollars wagered on the total, confirming that sharps are behind the line move.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

The over/under for the TCU-SMU game is down to 58.5. In the last decade, when the over/under drops more than a full point for TCU under Gary Patterson, the under is 24-17 (+5.8 units), going under the total by a full field goal per game.

TCU has tilted to the under on the road with Patterson over the last decade, too, going 31-23 (+6.3 units), including 10-3 in the Horned Frogs’ last 13 road games. They’ve gone under the total by 12.1 points per game.



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