NFL Props To Bet For (Almost) Every Week 2 Game: DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Carson, More Picks
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins
- A Chris Carson over. A DeAndre Hopkins under. Sixteen total picks!
- Find the 16 most valuable NFL props to bet this Sunday outlined below.
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player props for every slate throughout the 2021 NFL season — and he’s targeting 16 for Sunday’s Week 2 slate, featuring one for almost every afternoon game.
Koerner has a 376-279-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Adam Trautman Over 23.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Adam Trautman had a quiet three catches for 18 yards in Week 1 despite seeing a 28% target share with a 75% route run rate. I’m assuming Juwan Johnson’s two-touchdown performance will result in him seeing more playing time, at Trautman’s expense — but Trautman should be able to clear this number even with an expected decrease in usage.
- Bet to: 26.5
Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 29.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
DPJ flopped in Week 1 (1/4/0) despite starting in place for Odell Beckham Jr. I’m projecting DPJ for 39.5 yards if he comes even remotely close to seeing similar playing time this week. Rookie Anthony Schwartz is dealing with a knee injury, meaning DPJ should see similar usage this week, with a much better stat line.
- Bet to: 33.5
Anthony Schwartz Under 2.5 Receptions (-125) at DraftKings
Schwartz is dealing with a knee injury that will prevent him from playing at 100%. He erupted for three catches and 69 yards in his NFL debut, but I’m expecting him to cool off here. The rookie speedster is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, so taking the under for his receptions rather than for his receiving yards is the more prudent way to fade him.
- Bet to: -140
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rush Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Monty ran all over the Rams on Sunday Night Football, and I expect him to continue his breakout that began in Week 12 of last season. Heach coach Matt Nagy has mentioned he wants to get Monty as many carries as possible. This should be a close game in which Montgomery could see 20+ carries.
- Bet to: 67.5
Damiere Byrd Under 19.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Byrd managed to haul in three passes last week and still couldn’t clear this number. He benefited from Allen Robinson having to face Jalen Ramsey last week, but I expect the Bears to get ARob more involved this week at the expense of ancillary wide outs like Byrd.
- Bet to: 17.5
Devin Singletary Over 36.5 Rush Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Zack Moss being inactive was one of the bigger Week 1 surprises. Either way, the Bills are treating Singletary as the lead back (for now) and this prop is too low.
- Bet to: 39.5
Mike Gesicki Over 21.5 Rec Yards at FanDuel
Gesicki failed to catch a pass in Week 1, allowing us a buy-low opportunity on his prop here. His playing time was nearly even with Durham Smythe, and even if that trend continues, Gesicki should still clear this prop. The Dolphins will be forced into a more pass-heavy game script against the Bills, which should benefit Gesicki.
- Bet to: 25.5
Darrell Henderson Over 55.5 Rush Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Henderson is going to be the clear workhorse back until Sony Michel gets more familiar with the offense.
- Bet to: 57.5
Robert Woods Under 62.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Woods only ran a route on 67% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks. It may have been part of the Rams Week 1 game plan or something we need to be concerned about Woods long-term role in the new offense. I’m projecting him to jump up to an 80% routes run rate and still showing a ton of value on the under.
- Bet to: 58.5
Tyler Higbee Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Higbee is one of my favorite “buy low” candidates after Week 1 despite posting a solid 5/68/0 line. We haven’t even seen his true upside in this new offense yet — check out my full prediction of his potential breakout here.
- Bet to: 47.5
Devonta Smith Over 47.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Smith had a solid NFL debut with six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown — and he could have gone for more if the Falcons put up more of a fight in their 32-6 loss to the Eagles.
I expect the rookie to continue to be the true alpha WR the Eagles have been looking for over the past couple of seasons. The 49ers also just lost top cornerback Jason Verrett to the IR.
- Bet to: 50.5
Marvin Jones Under 55.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
It’s ideal timing to fade the Jags’ pass offense a week after attempting 51 passes and now going up against an excellent secondary. Jones is offering the most value to go under his current prop.
- Bet to: 52.5
DeAndre Hopkins Under 90.5 Rec Yards (-115) at DraftKings
It’s never fun betting the under on future Hall of Famers, but someone has to do it.
I would imagine 80%+ of the action has been on the “over” in this market, and as a result, the line has been inflated to the point that I believe we need to come in on the under.
Hopkins saw only a 20.6% target share in Week 1, thanks to the Cards’ ancillary WRs — Rondale Moore, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk — having larger roles within the offense. The extra competition for targets makes me think this line is a tad too high.
If Hopkins ends up going for 12/230/3 this week, I would be the least-surprised person on Earth, but I’m projecting him to go under this number 58% of the time.
- Bet to: 88.5
Chris Carson Over 16.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
The market is way too low here for Carson, who should have a high receiving floor this week.
- Bet to: 19.5
Dalton Schultz Under 32.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
The Cowboys ran a near-even committee at TE with Schultz and Blake Jarwin. Schultz managed to haul in all six of his Week 1 targets for 45 yards. He carries a much lower median projection heading into Week 2 than the market projects here.
- Bet to: 29.5
Austin Ekeler Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Ekeler’s zero-catch performance was one of the flukiest stat lines of Week 1 — especially since new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is expected to use Ekeler heavily in the passing game in the “Alvin Kamara role” in this Sean Payton-influenced offense.
This screams of a buy-low opportunity that I’m pouncing on.
- Bet to: 32.5