Zylbert’s NFL Over/Unders: Can 49ers Defense Contain Mitchell Trubisky?

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

• Over/Under: 44
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Zylbert’s 2018 NFL Over/Under Betting Record: 8-7-2, +0.2 units
Last Week’s Result: Lions-Bills Under 40 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

You may not know it with the 49ers sitting at 4-10, but rookie Nick Mullens has fared very nicely in his first taste of NFL action.

Undrafted out of Southern Miss in 2017, Mullens was finally inserted under center this year after taking over the reins in Week 9 — and he hasn't looked back since.

In six starts, Mullens has notched a 3-3 record, but more noteworthy are his impressive numbers. In fact, since taking his very first snap, the 23-year-old ranks sixth in football in passing yards per game (292.3) and third in yards per attempt (8.64) within that span while completing 64.5% of his throws. Overall, he's amassed a desirable 96.0 passer rating.

However, Sunday's penultimate game of the season will bring about Mullens' biggest challenge to date when he goes toe-to-toe with a very dangerous Bears defense that just might be the best in the league.

Only four teams in the NFL have allowed fewer than 20 points per game, with the Bears being one of them (18.9). None have racked up more takeaways (35), and Chicago is also tied for fourth with 45 sacks.

Perhaps the most glaring stat: No other defense has held opposing quarterbacks to a lower passer rating than the Bears (73.0!). And they've faced plenty of good ones.

For a defense that excels at getting to the quarterback, they figure to enjoy this particular matchup. San Francisco has given up 44 sacks, which is tied for seventh-most in football.

The Bears will also be more than capable of shutting down the Niners' biggest weapon, Pro Bowler George Kittle. Only three tight ends this year have topped 60 receiving yards against Chicago — with none reaching the 80-yard plateau.

As terrific as they are against the pass, Da Bears can be even more dominant bottling up the running game. They've yielded the second-fewest yards on the ground per week (83.6) and have surrendered the fewest rushing touchdowns (five), which spells a difficult day ahead for an already-banged-up Matt Breida.

But it's not like this is going to be a one-sided affair. Though some of their defensive ranks don't show it, the 49ers actually boast a solid unit under underrated defensive coordinator Robert Saleh that can keep them in it and the score on the low side.

One thing I like about this defense is how they limit "explosive" plays (gains of at least 15 rushing yards or 20 passing yards), ranking 12th in the NFL in that category with 79 such plays allowed (38 rushing, 41 passing).

In their last seven games, only 31 such plays were uncorked on them, showing a marked improvement for the defense that will also be getting some regulars back from injury.

Bears signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky has looked like a different QB in his road outings since first entering the league last year, and this distinct tendency can come into play against a defense that clearly isn't rolling over.

In his 10 career games away from Soldier Field, Trubisky has logged a passer rating of 76.0, not to mention an ugly 7/9 TD/INT ratio. Compare that to his 94.7 rating and 23/10 TD/INT ratio in 14 career home games, and it increases our chances of the Bears offense being forced into a grind-it-out affair.

I don't anticipate getting too damaged by running back Jordan Howard, either. The third-year tailback has endured a down year; he's on pace to finish with a career-low in rushing yards. His yards-per-carry (3.6) has gone down considerably as well.

With there being more of a likelihood of this line dropping than going up, get this under in at 44 as soon as you can.

Play: UNDER 44 (-110)