NFL Pro Systems: 49ers vs. Cardinals Offering Betting Value on Thursday Night Football
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa
- The undefeated 49ers are heavy favorites against the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football.
- Our NFL Pro Systems reveal multiple angles that point to betting value on the same side of this matchup.
San Francisco is one of the NFL’s surprise teams this season, catapulting from 40-1 to win Super Bowl 54 at PointsBet prior to the start of the season to 9-1 heading into Week 9.
In fact, the 49ers leapfrogged the New England Patriots as the top-ranked team in Football Outsiders’ latest DVOA rankings.
San Francisco currently sits as a 9.5-point favorite against Arizona on Thursday Night Football, with an over/under of 43 for this matchup.
Odds as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
According to our Action Pro Systems, there is one wager offering plenty of value, yet bettors are largely missing out on the play.
Let’s look at what the historical betting data says about Thursday’s 49ers vs. Cardinals game.
49ers vs. Cardinals Betting Systems
Casual bettors are all over San Francisco in this matchup. Eighty-three percent of spread bets have landed on the 49ers, despite the big spread.
On the other hand, our Action Pro Systems are finding value with the home underdog.
This system is so simple, yet continues to crank out profitable results. Teams coming off poor offensive performances and are being avoided by bettors offer oodles of contrarian value.
Since 2003, NFL teams that scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game and are receiving less than 30% of tickets have covered 61.2% over a sample of almost 250 games, including 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
The Cards stumbled to just nine points last week against the Saints, and with only 17% of tickets landing on Arizona, are a match for this system.
Please note that betting percentages do fluctuate throughout the week, so be sure to check this Pro System’s current game matches closer to kickoff.
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
While the system above takes advantage of teams the betting market is undervaluing, this one fades those which are being overvalued — like the 49ers.
After the first month of the season, teams covering the spread by more than five points, on average, are good fades.
Think about it — bettors will continue to blindly back teams that have been good to them, even though oddsmakers are constantly making adjustments to factor in recent performance.
San Francisco has covered the spread by a whopping 15.64 points per game this season, making it ripe for fading based on historical betting data.
Pro Systems match: Cardinals +9.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]