Falcons-Eagles Player Props: Watch Jay Ajayi, Calvin Ridley on Thursday Night

Falcons-Eagles Player Props: Watch Jay Ajayi, Calvin Ridley on Thursday Night article feature image

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jay Ajayi

  • Joe Holka picks the over/under on two player prop bets for the Atlanta Falcons-Philadelphia Eagles season-opener on Thursday Night Football.
  • The props are for running back Jay Ajayi's total receiving yards and rookie receiver Calvin Ridley's total catches.

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Atlanta Falcons-Philadelphia Eagles season-opening matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the FantasyLabs prop tool.

All lines are as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Eagles RB Jay Ajayi

The pick: Over 9.5 receiving yards (+105 at 5Dimes)

The Eagles came in as one of the top lines in terms of Adjusted Reception Yards, a metric comparable to Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards that I created to show how offensive lines impact on the receiving game for running backs.

Offensive line play aside, the matchup sets Ajayi up well to produce above expectation through the air, assuming the rumblings about him taking on more of a workhorse role are true. The Falcons also allowed the most receptions and fourth-most yards to running backs in 2017.

Ajayi accumulated only 16 total receptions over 10 games (including playoffs) with the Eagles last year, but he’s averaged 10.5 receiving yards per game over his career.

Falcons WR Calvin Ridley

The pick: Under 3 receptions (-105 at Sportsbook.ag)

The Falcons’ first-round pick comes into Week 1 with an uncertain role in the offense. After failing to separate himself as the clear No. 3 option in the preseason, he will likely rotate snaps with Justin Hardy to start.

It’s also a tough matchup against a Philadelphia defense that ranked eighth in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average in 2017.