Bears v. Steelers NFL Player Props: The Public Loves These Najee Harris Bets For Monday Night Football (Nov. 8)

Bears v. Steelers NFL Player Props: The Public Loves These Najee Harris Bets For Monday Night Football (Nov. 8) article feature image

Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Najee Harris.

The Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off at Heinz Field for Monday Night Football.

The public expects two mediocre offenses to play a grinding, run-heavy set all night. The total for this game is a historically-low 39.5 as a result.

The next lowest total for a primetime game this season was a Sunday Night Football affair between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers, which closed at 41.5. But that one had a catch — they were playing in 15-20 miles per hour gusts and torrential rain.

It took a monsoon to bring the total down to 41.5, and yet the public still expects Pittsburgh and Chicago to score fewer points.

As a result of this dynamic, bettors love Steelers running back Najee Harris for this one.

Bears v. Steelers Most Popular NFL Player Props

  1. Najee Harris to score the first touchdown of the game (+400)
  2. Najee Harris to record more than 79.5 rushing yards (-115)
  3. Ben Roethlisberger to record more than 300 passing yards (+260)

Rankings and odds are according to BetMGM as of Monday morning.

Harris has scored the first touchdown in one of his seven career games — during a 23-20 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football.

That rate implies odds of about +600.

Because this type of prop can’t be properly modeled from a value perspective, I tend to stay away as a whole. That, plus the 33% drop off in implied value, steers me toward a no bet.

The second prop is definitely worth a sprinkle, though.

The Bears rank ninth-worst in the NFL against the rush, according to Football Outsiders.

Pittsburgh will start the game pounding the rock heavy. And if it's successful and they take a lead? They'll be forced to keep running the ball.

Since the Steelers transitioned to a man-blocking scheme earlier this season, Harris has averaged 98 rushing yards per game.

All-Pro Bears defender Khalil Mack will also be out for this one.

All signs point toward this prop and its value.

A note that PointsBet and DraftKings have the same 79.5 rushing yard value for this prop. FanDuel lists the bet at O/U 82.5 yards.

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