Welcome back to the Pick Six, where we're fresh off another winner after cashing +851 last week.
Early on each week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick early look at the upcoming Week 12 games, and just like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
We're 2-3 on these Pick Six parlays so far with +630 and +851 winners, leaving us with a tidy 236% ROI on the season, so let's keep it rolling. For Week 12, we're pairing four big favorites, two of them in primetime, with a pair of underdogs, one short and one long shot.
Our Week 12 moneyline parlay has odds at +2104 at DraftKings at the time of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks
Seahawks Moneyline
Seahawks vs Titans; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Look, they don't all have to be hard. This is about as close as it gets to a free space.
Last week, the Seahawks played in the DVOA Bowl — No. 1 vs No. 2 — but this week it's whatever the opposite of that is, with No. 1 going up against No. 32.
If you're worried about the Seahawks after Sunday, you shouldn't be.
Seattle got a worst-case-scenario game from Sam Darnold on the road against maybe the best team in football and lost by only two points with a kick to win at the buzzer.
Mike Macdonald's defense was awesome; Seattle was the clearly superior team outside of those four deadly Darnold interceptions. Seattle had 414 yards to just 249 for the Rams, doubled L.A. up in first downs, and had nearly twice as much possession. Those four picks cost Seattle 51% win probability, but that shows how great the Seahawks were otherwise.
This is now the top-rated defense in football by DVOA, and that alone should be enough against Cam Ward and this moribund Titans offense.
The Titans have little chance to score, so even if Seattle's offensive line injuries cause some struggles for Darnold again, that alone should be enough.
These are also two of the three lowest-variance teams in football by DVOA, meaning what you see is what you get. We get one of the best, complete teams in football against one of the worst.
Enough said.
Lions Moneyline
Giants vs Lions; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
By my numbers, this is actually the biggest favorite on the board in Week 12.
The Lions were my Lookahead pick at -9.5 and I'll still be playing them at -10.5 since I make this about two full touchdowns, making this another absolute no-brainer for our moneyline parlay.
Like with Seattle, Sunday's loss is a chance to buy slightly low on one of the best teams in football.
Detroit is good at mostly everything. The Lions rank top 10 by DVOA in both running and passing on both offense and defense.
That defense should be set up just fine against a Giants team missing their top option at QB, RB and WR, and though the offense has been somewhat stuck in the mud of late, this looks like an excellent get-right spot.
The Giants have the worst rushing defense in the league by EPA per play, DVOA, or most any other metric you pick. Detroit's entire modus operandi is winning in the trenches and running the football, and that should set up perfectly for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to run all over the G-Men.
Nine straight Lions wins have been by six or more points, so when Detroit does win, it typically does so without much of a sweat.
The Lions are an incredible 36-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in indoor games with Jared Goff. That's a 73% hit rate with a 40% ROI against the spread, and we don't even need Detroit to win by a margin — we just need the win.
There's still value on Lions division futures at +150 (FanDuel), with Detroit about a coin flip to win the NFC North. Thank the Packers for losing, and thank the overrated Bears for winning and buying us value.
These first two should be nice, easy ones, and we're going to need it — because we'll be sweating out the next two underdogs all Sunday.
Bengals Moneyline
Patriots vs Bengals; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
No, you're not reading that heading backwards — we're taking the underdog Bengals, not the heavily-favored Patriots.
I've been looking for a spot to fade a New England squad that looks nowhere near as good as its gaudy 9-2 record, and this finally looks like a great spot for it — on the road against an offense that can catch fire, for a team playing in an absolute desperation spot.
The Bengals are 3-7 and continue to be on the brink of a lost season, but it's not quite over just yet and it looks like reinforcements are on the way. Joe Burrow and Trey Hendrickson could both return Thanksgiving night for the Ravens game, and if Cincinnati can steal this one and win that one, suddenly the division and everything else is in play.
So why are the Patriots possibly overrated?
New England ranks 17th by DVOA for the season. That's actually just below league average.
The Patriots have a fine run defense, but one that's been leaky lately, and Drake Maye is a legit MVP candidate. The one great thing New England does is pass the ball.
But the Patriots rank 26th in rushing DVOA on offense, so they may not be able to hurt this awful Bengals run defense in that way. Worse, they rank 28th in passing DVOA on defense and 29th overall defensively, and that's the key to this matchup.
Ja'Marr Chase is suspended, and that's a serious loss here — worth over a point to the spread in my model — but the Bengals offense even without Burrow, has continued to move the ball and put up big points at times. And against this poor pass defense and lack of much pass rush, Joe Flacco and Tee Higgins can move the ball and deliver points.
Everything about this game looks like a shootout, with a high total and trends that point over, and that could set up a situation where the hot quarterback and/or the team with the ball last wins.
You prefer Maye of course, but Flacco and Higgins are set up to have a monster game, and they can be that answer. They can win this and give life to this Bengals season.
This line was at Patriots -7 before the Chase suspension and ballooned as high as -9 before settling in the middle. I make it just over a field goal, meaning I'm seeing immense value on the underdog Bengals.
The Patriots are still more likely to win, but I'm giving Cincinnati a shot. I bet Bengals on the Hot Read, played the moneyline, and even sprinkled the division odds at +4000.
I love this opportunity for Cincinnati — it's one last stand with nothing to lose against an overrated 9-2 squad that looks incredibly beatable.
Cardinals Moneyline
Jaguars vs Cardinals; Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
We're going with a pair of upsets this week, but mostly because I really don't think this should be an upset.
At the time of publishing, this line sits at Jaguars -2.5, but I make it more like Cardinals -2. I'm not sure Jacksonville is better than Arizona in any meaningful way.
By DVOA, the Jaguars rank 20th on offense versus 24th for the Cardinals. Both defenses are a bit better than you might expect, but Arizona is ahead there, 13th to 11th. Jacksonville has the better special teams unit, but I prefer Arizona's coaching staff.
These teams are mostly equals on paper, which is why my line basically has home field as the difference.
Arizona has played better offense with Jacoby Brissett in for Kyler Murray, and Trey McBride has been on fire with Brissett and is the best offense either team has right now.
Nick Rallis's defense has been pretty good and looks like the best unit on the field, and this is a pretty great opportunity to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville.
The Cardinals were unlucky to come up against a 49ers offense that finally got healthy, while the Jags lucked into the corpse of a Chargers offensive line and took advantage.
Teams coming off a loss of 17 or more points facing a team that just won by that much are 59% ATS the last two decades, and teams facing an opponent off a 17-point win that are now underdogs of a touchdown are less are 65% ATS. Teams playing at home against an opponent that has just covered by 26+ points as an underdog are 40-15-1 ATS since 2010 (73%).
We technically can get a Cardinals cover and lose the moneyline if Arizona loses by a point or two, but those trends are team agnostic and show just how great a spot this is to buy low and sell high on both teams.
Trevor Lawrence is 10-15 ATS as a favorite in his career and 7-16 ATS facing teams below .500.
I don't believe in Jacksonville, and I don't see any reason to believe the Jags should be road favorites in Arizona, so take advantage of the gifted plus odds.
Rams Moneyline
Buccaneers vs Rams; Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
We're heading to primetime for our final two picks, and though this will be billed as a big NFC showdown, I think it's a mismatch right now.
The Rams are playing as well as any team in football.
Los Angeles ranks top four in both rushing and passing on both offense and defense — the clear best team in the league outside of its poor special teams (which are still better than Tampa's here).
Matthew Stafford is the rightful MVP favorite, playing some of the best ball of his career, and no opponent has really found an answer to both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Meanwhile, L.A.'s defense continues to far outperform expectations and just showed how dominant it can be, forcing four Sam Darnold interceptions on Sunday.
The Rams' defensive front can make life difficult on a Bucs offense that hasn't been sharp for some time now, and that's the real problem here.
Tampa Bay just isn't healthy. It looks like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are still out, along with Mike Evans, and the Bucs haven't been able to run the ball or find consistent answers without them.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams have been thriving by living in 13 personnel with three tight ends, forcing opponents to put extra linebackers on the field and then punishing them. That is a specific weakness to this Todd Bowles defense, and the Rams should be able to shred the middle of the field in this matchup.
You might feel surprised to see this line pushing Rams -7 instead of a field goal, but I think it should be double digits.
Rams roll.
49ers Moneyline
Panthers vs 49ers; Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Hopefully by Monday night, we're just down to one final pick on the favorites.
I'm not exactly sure what the NFL schedule makers were thinking, giving us a Carolina game in primetime this late in the season, but we may have lucked into a gem of an NFC wild-card battle with the Panthers a surprising 6-5 and in the playoff mix.
But that doesn't mean the Panthers are good.
If you're a regular reader, you know we've been paying a lot of attention to the Panthers recently — in the last three weeks alone, I bet them to win as underdogs against both the Packers and Falcons, and I also bet against them to lose as favorites against the Saints.
It's all about matchups for Carolina. The underdog script was right against Green Bay and Atlanta, but doesn't fit as well here now that the 49ers offense is finally healthy for the first time all season.
The Panthers are built to win by running and stopping the run, but this game is about the pass. Carolina's passing DVOA rank is 27th on offense and 26th on defense, both in the bottom quarter of the league.
Any guess where the 49ers' passing attack ranks?
You're forgiven if you'd guess below average. Brock Purdy has barely played all season, nor Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall, or still Brandon Aiyuk. You're forgiven if you guessed a bit above average, giving Kyle Shanahan some credit.
The answer is 3rd. The 49ers rank 3rd in the NFL on the season in passing DVOA, behind only the Seahawks and Rams, and just ahead of the Patriots, Packers, Chiefs, and Colts.
San Francisco's offense ranks sixth overall, and that offense is just too much for the Panthers to keep up with in a shootout.
Bryce Young may have won that way last week, but mostly only because Michael Penix Jr. got injured and Atlanta stopped moving the football.
The 49ers should move the ball with relative ease all night, and Carolina isn't built to keep up.
With any luck, our upsets will all be out of the way on Sunday and the 49ers can take us home.
Week 12 Moneyline Parlay
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Lions Moneyline
- Bengals Moneyline
- Cardinals Moneyline
- Rams Moneyline
- 49ers Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
Sometimes, futures betting is all about timing.
This is the part of the article where I typically give you my favorite future of the week.
I considered giving you a Bucs-Colts-Broncos division parlay at effectively even odds (-101 at FanDuel). Those teams are 91%, 81%, and 81% to win their divisions, respectively, at FTN so that parlay should hit around 60% of the time, compared to our 50% implied.
But I have the Bucs losing this week, and I also strongly considered picking the Chiefs over the Colts in our Pick Six. Those two results would mean longer odds for all three teams in this parlay a week from now — so unless you think those results go otherwise, you should wait.
I also looked at the Chargers to miss the playoffs at +135 (BetMGM). That puts L.A. at 43% implied to miss, when FTN has the Chargers at 43% to make instead.
The Chargers are off this week, but their competition will play games.
I like the Jaguars to lose, and the Steelers are underdogs, too, and may not have Aaron Rodgers. If either or both of those teams lose, the Chargers' odds to miss will grow even longer. We should wait.
I even peaked at Abdul Carter to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +1900. I've got a great position right now with both favorites tucked away in my portfolio already — Carson Schwesinger at +3500 and Nick Emmanwori at +6000 — but Carter has been outstanding by underlying metrics and looks live if he can just land a few sacks.
But Carter plays the Lions this week, and that's not a great opportunity for a big sack day, while the others should have good days. Carter's odds probably won't lengthen too far, but it may be a better price later.
Not every week needs a futures bet. Sometimes the best bet you can make is actually no bet at all.
