Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 12 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 12 Picks & Predictions
Patriots vs Bengals Spread Prediction
I had this game circled before Week 11 hoping we'd get Bengals +7 — and as of Monday, there are some books even offering +7.5.
It's a great spot to fade an overvalued Patriots team and invest in the desperate Bengals, who are playing for their season at this point with a 3-7 record. Their loss to the Steelers on Sunday wasn't as bad as it looked as they were mostly undone by two Pittsburgh defensive scores.
Even with Joe Flacco at quarterback, the Bengals have a potent offense that's capable of putting up numbers against a Patriots defense that's bottom 10 by DVOA, including bottom five against the pass. The Pats will have issues covering Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
This game has shootout potential and +7 is just way too high — I'm closer to a field goal.
Underdogs coming off a loss and failing to cover in three straight games (like Cincy) are 106-75-5 (58%) against the spread (ATS), good for a 13% ROI.
I think the Bengals are live to steal this game outright so I'm also playing their moneyline at +285 (FanDuel) — and I'm not stopping there.
Cincy to win the AFC North isn't that crazy, in my opinion. The Bengals are only three games back and the Steelers have been underwhelming and now dealing with an Aaron Rodgers injury, while the Ravens still leave a lot be desired.
The Bengals' schedule isn't easy (vs Patriots, @ Ravens, @ Bills, vs Ravens) but they are winnable and the returns of Joe Burrow and Trey Hendrickson are looming. They have to beat the Patriots first, though. I'm sprinkling the Bengals to win the AFC North at +4000 on DraftKings).
Picks:
- Bengals +7 (DraftKings)
- Bengals Moneyline +285 (FanDuel)
- Bengals to win AFC North +4000 (DraftKings)
Browns vs Raiders Over/Under Pick
With Dillon Gabriel in concussion protocol, this game could feature the road debut of Shedeur Sanders, who was disastrous in his NFL debut on Sunday (4-for-16 for 47 yards, two sacks, INT, -0.67 e/p, -35 CPOE).
This might be our only chance ever to bet against Sanders, and I am not missing out.
I think the under is the way to go here as this game has two of the worst offenses in football and surprisingly good defenses. The Browns entered Week 11 fourth in defensive DVOA and first against the run; the Raiders are above average overall and fringe top 10.
Raiders games are 6-3 to under with game totals this year of 33, 31, 30, 29 and 17. They have scored 15.4 PPG (31st), with four games under 10 points already. The Browns had games with totals of 38, 37, 33, 32 and 23. Outside of a 31-6 win over the Dolphins, the Browns average 14.6 PPG.
Since the start of last season in non-Jameis Winston starts, the Browns average 14.5 PPG over 20 games.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-110)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 12 Bets
- Bengals +7 (DraftKings)
- Bengals Moneyline +285 (FanDuel)
- Bengals to win AFC North +4000 (DraftKings)
- Browns-Raiders Under 37.5 -110 (DraftKings)
