NFL Week 12 wraps up with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.
The Cowboys enter MNF on a two-game losing streak and a distant second place in the NFC East standings. The Raiders, meanwhile, have lost three straight games and are comfortably last in the AFC West.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Cowboys vs Raiders preview, which includes four picks for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his receptions prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Lamb below.
NFL Prop Bet: CeeDee Lamb Over/Under Prediction
Fading a future Hall of Famer is never the most pleasant experience. Everyone already knows he’s incredible, so there’s always that little voice saying, “Why am I doing this to myself?”
It also sets up the most predictable reaction ever.
If this wins, nobody cares. The game ends, people log off, and life goes on. If it loses, it happens while everyone is watching and someone always feels the need to sprint into my mentions and go, “Wow this idiot at Action really faded CeeDee Lamb tonight?”
So before anyone feels obligated to remind me how good Lamb is, yes, I am aware.
I was one of the first people yelling from the rooftops about him as a rookie. I took his over 20.5 receiving yards in his second career game and said, “This is the last time you’ll see a prop that low for him — ever.”
He dropped 100+ yards that day and never looked back. Trust me, I don’t need a lecture on how talented Lamb is. Feel free to send it anyway if he goes off for 8/109/2 tonight. I’ll probably laugh.
Now let me walk you through how someone like me ends up showing value on his receptions under.
Let's start with the simple stuff.
The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites. That usually means they’ll play with the lead around 46% of the time. They could lead more or less, but 46% is a fair projected baseline for a 3.5-point favorite historically.
They’ve only led 30% of the season so far, so this is a ~16% expected jump in playing with a lead. It gives them more room to lean on Javonte Williams, burn clock and reduce overall passing volume.
It also increases the odds we get one of those designed runs for Lamb. He only has one this year, but last season he averaged about one per game. Anytime Dallas runs the ball, with anyone, that’s great for the under.
For the target rate, I isolate the five games Lamb was fully healthy (Weeks 1, 2, 7, 8, 9). Across those, he has a 28% target-per-route rate. That’s way down from last year’s 38%, and exactly what you’d expect when you add a legit WR2 like George Pickens. My preseason projection was 28.5%, so that all checks out.
The Raiders generate pressure at one of the lowest rates in the NFL and use Cover 3 at the second-highest rate in the league (45%). Lamb’s target share drops to 18% against that look.
Combining everything together, I land on an expected target rate around 27% tonight. Slightly down, but within reason.
I project Dak Prescott for around 39 dropbacks with Lamb catching roughly 66% of his targets. I simulate the game 10,000 times so you get the natural variance of some games with 15+ targets and others with five.
On average Lamb …
- Runs 35.24 routes
- Draws 9.68 targets
- Catches 6.12 passes
- Goes for 84.96 yards (median 80.5)
Lamb stays under 6.5 receptions about 58% of the time — six exact catches is his most likely outcome at 17%. So I’m showing value on this under.
And honestly, this doesn’t even have to be viewed as a “fade” in the traditional sense.
If Lamb catches an 80-yard TD on his first target, that is incredible for the under.
We want Dallas ahead early. We want Williams pounding the rock. We want Pickens and Jake Ferguson moving the chains. Lamb will get his handful of catches, we just want them to come in the form of chunk plays — he’s seeing a downfield target on a career-high 22% of his targets.
That is the entire angle. Nothing mystical about it. Just a projection showing real value on a number that looks scary on paper because of the name attached to it.
