The Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) close NFL Week 11 on Monday Night Football on November 17. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites over the Raiders on the spread (Cowboys -3.5); the over/under is set at 50.5 total points. Dallas is a -185 moneyline favorite, while Las Vegas is a +155 home underdog.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview Cowboys vs Raiders predictions.
Cowboys vs Raiders Prediction
- Cowboys vs Raiders pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
My Cowboys vs Raiders best bet is on Ashton Jeanty over 16.5 receiving yards, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Raiders Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Cowboys vs Raiders Monday Night Football Preview
Both teams will come off extended rest looking to get back on track in Jerry World after multi-game losing streaks.
For the Raiders, it's been a very disappointing 2-7 start — although three of the seven losses have come by less than a field goal.
Coming into the season, nobody thought much of a defense that truly lacks high-end talent across the board outside of stud edge rusher Maxx Crosby.
However, the defense has actually been better than advertised through nine games, ranking above league-average in DVOA.
The primary problem has been on the other side of the ball where almost nothing has worked under the new regime with quarterback Geno Smith really struggling.
On the season, Las Vegas ranks 30th in DVOA, Success Rate and EPA per Play — ahead of only the lowly Browns and Titans.
Many of the issues start up front with an offensive line that simply has struggled to protect Smith and failed to open up holes for rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.
To date, the Raiders rank dead last in Line Yards and Rush Efficiency. And that picture up front has grown even bleaker up front in recent weeks with the loss of stud left tackle Kolton Miller and guard Jackson Powers-Johnson.
While getting a healthy Brock Powers back certainly helps, the overall talent level on the outside has dropped since the beginning of the season with Vegas essentially swapping Jakobi Meyers for Tyler Lockett.
Geno Smith has historically excelled indoors, but even pristine conditions haven't helped his cause in 2025.
So, can the Raiders move the ball on one the bottom-5 defenses in the league? That remains to be seen.
Dallas has at least added some reinforcements recently on that side of the ball after trading for Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams.
Getting Overshown back from injury also could provide a boost. However, this is still a very poor secondary that remains less than 100% health wise.
Despite all of their warts, the Cowboys have been able to consistently generate pressure, which has plagued Geno Smith all issue behind the aforementioned leaky offensive line.
It's still a bottom-tier defense with a very poor and predictable scheme, but we could see an uptick in production with a bit more resources following the bye week.
Unlike the Raiders, the Cowboys offense hasn't been the root of their problems. Dallas ranks 11th in DVOA, fifth in EPA per Play and eighth in Success Rate.
Even the run game (which many didn't believe in coming into the season) has been cooking under new offensive coordinator Klayton Adams.
Dak Prescott continues to play at an extremely high level and should have plenty of time in the pocket to find ways to move the ball methodically down the field with the plethora of weapons on the outside.
Schematically, the Raiders do want to limit explosive plays at all costs and generally do an adequate job in that department under DC Patrick Graham.
Cowboys vs Raiders Prediction, Betting Analysis
At above a field goal, I could only look at taking the points with the road underdog.
From a total perspective, while scary, it's under or nothing with a potentially improved Dallas defense that can get pressure against a broken offensive line and a Raiders defense that will make the Cowboys methodically work down the field, chewing up clock in the process.
However, my favorite look in this game is Ashton Jeanty over reception yards against a Dallas defense that ranks in the bottom-5 against opposing opposing backs in the passing games, allowing the second-most yards per game (45.7) in that department.
After only seeing eight targets over the first four games of the season, Jeanty has seen 22 over the past five — over double on a per-game basis.
With the current state of the wide receiver room and offensive line, Jeanty could see an even bigger uptick in targets tonight, especially since I don't expect much success in the running game against a Dallas defense that should improve in that area with the acquisition of Williams.
That should lead to plenty of passing downs where Smith will have to deal with pressure that could lead to some dump offs to Jeanty, who will have an opportunity to break one or two against a vulnerable back end.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Spread
Lean Raiders
Moneyline
Pass
Over/Under
Lean Under
