Bills-Packers Betting Preview: Can You Trust Buffalo to Cover at Lambeau?

Bills-Packers Betting Preview: Can You Trust Buffalo to Cover at Lambeau? article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -9
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Josh Allen and the Bills have convinced at least half the betting population that they deserve some more respect.

The bets are split evenly between the two teams, but Buffalo is getting 69% of the money as of writing (see live data here), and the line has moved in its favor.

Last week, the Bills got only 32% of bets at +16.5, which just goes to show you how much people’s minds can be changed in a week. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Bills became the 16th team since 1993 to win straight-up as a two-touchdown underdog with their Week 3 upset of the Vikings.

How have the previous 15 teams performed the week after their upset wins? To call it a hangover wouldn’t even do it justice.

Not counting the Patriots’ upset of the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, the other 14 teams went 2-12 straight-up and 1-11-2 against the spread in their next game, including 0-11 SU and 0-10-1 ATS as underdogs.

Of the previous 14 teams, none was an underdog of more than a touchdown the following week. (The Bills are.) Evan Abrams

Aaron Rodgers is a great bet in almost every situation:

  • All regular-season games: 83-59-3 ATS
  • As a favorite: 69-46-3 ATS
  • Against the NFC North: 36-19 ATS

But Rodgers has struggled to cover as a large favorite. When laying 10 or more points, he is 22-3 SU but 13-12 ATS.John Ewing

Injury watch: Rodgers (knee/hamstring) and tight end Jimmy Graham (knee) are each expected to suit up despite missing Wednesday’s practice, but Randall Cobb’s (hamstring) midweek downgrade will need to be monitored.

The good news for the Packers is that right tackle Bryan Bulaga (back) and right guard Justin McCray (shoulder) should be good to go, and the defense has a chance to welcome back safety Josh Jones (ankle) and cornerback Kevin King (groin).

The outlook is less positive for outside linebacker Nick Perry (concussion) and defensive tackle Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle), who reportedly suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 3.

LeSean McCoy (ribs) said he’s playing Sunday, though it’d be a lot easier to believe him if he gets in a full practice on Friday.

The Bills offense could be without tight ends Charles Clay (shoulder/hip) and Jason Croom (knee), but the larger concerns are whether defensive ends Shaq Lawson (hamstring) and Trent Murphy (ankle) will ultimately suit up.

Safety Micah Hyde (toe) and cornerback Phillip Gaines (elbow) should be good to go.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Life as Rodgers’ No. 1 target has been fruitful for Davante Adams, as no other NFL receiver has caught more touchdown passes than Adams (25) since 2016.

Overall, to duo has connected for at least one touchdown in 12 of their past 16 games together (including playoffs).

Still, likely shadow date Tre’Davious White has helped the Bills allow only four receivers to surpass 100 receiving yards since the beginning of the 2017 season, and it took each player double-digit targets to do so.

Any exposure to Adams should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,000 price tag comes with a 96% Bargain Rating in the FantasyLabs Models. Hartitz

Bet to watch: Packers -6.5 First Half

The Bills are coming off an absolute beatdown of a strong defensive team on the road and will now attempt to pull off an upset in consecutive weeks.

As I detailed above, teams such as the Bills have really historically struggled after such a large upset win, especially when they are still listed as an underdog the next week.

In CG Technology’s preseason point spreads for every game through Week 16, the Packers were 9.5-point favorites in this matchup. And last week, before Buffalo or Green Bay had played, Westgate had the Packers as 14.5-point favorites. Now we’re back down to 10.

This line is still an overreaction to the Bills’ win, and it offers the most value in the first half.

I expect the Packers to rattle rookie QB Josh Allen with pressure. So far, he is 4-for-20 passing with 11 sacks and an interception while under duress.

Buffalo ranks dead-last in pass protection this season, according to Football Outsiders, allowing an adjusted sack-rate of 13.3%.

That’s not to mention 39.6% of Allen’s dropbacks have been pressured this year — the fifth-most in the NFL.

The Packers will get to Allen early and often. Take Green Bay. Evan Abrams

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.