The Wild Card Round gets going with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks on Saturday afternoon — and I already have one player prop locked in.
I'm targeting Rams WR Davante Adams as I believe there's an edge on his receptions prop. Find my NFL prop bet for Adams below.
NFL Props: Davante Adams Over/Under Pick
Adams is expected to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out since Week 15.
I’m assuming the Rams were playing it safe and that he’s closer to 100% with a low chance of a setback, but there’s still a chance he could be limited. My projection is assuming he steps right back into his full-time role at full health, so any sort of limitation due to the hamstring only helps favor the under.
Rams vs Panthers also presents us with an odd matchup, where you have arguably the best team facing one of the worst playoff teams (ever) as 10-point road favorites.
I think the Rams win with ease, and it’s a great matchup for them on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also a great matchup for Puka Nacua and the TE group, as the Panthers have struggled against WR1s and TEs this season.
Adams tends to see a high percentage of his targets either downfield or in the end zone — this means any time he does haul in a pass, it has a massive impact on the game and often sets up the Rams to play with the lead and lean more on the run. In a sense, every catch he makes can actually hurt his rest-of-game projection, which is a sneaky reason I like the under on his receptions.
There’s a chance we see some rain or wind in Carolina. Probably not enough to materially impact play, but it’s still a downgrade compared to playing indoors in at SoFi Stadium and dings Adams slightly. We also saw Tyler Higbee return last week, which makes the Rams' TE group more likely to eat into Adams’ target share.
All of this has me projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. I have zero interest in fading his yardage or TD markets. I’m specifically fading him in this market.
And again, this projection assumes he’s fully healthy and back to his normal role, so any limitations at all only add more hidden value to the under.
Pick: Davante Adams Under 4.5 Receceptions (-125)
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story (like this one, which as already moved to -163), make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
