Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Wild Card Round picks I made — for Rams vs Panthers and Packers vs Bears — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
Wild Card Picks & Predictions
Rams vs Panthers Spread Prediction
Yes, this number is aggressive. Yes, it’s already climbing. And honestly, I don’t care.
This is the best team in the NFL by almost any meaningful measure against, by far, the worst team to ever make the playoffs.
Carolina’s -69 point differential is bottom-10 in the entire league and the worst ever for a playoff team. This Panthers team hasn’t won a game by more than three points since October, hasn’t won by more than seven since September, and hasn’t won as a favorite since September of 2021.
Against non-division playoff teams, Carolina is 2-5 with an average score of 28-14. The Panthers scored 16 points or fewer in all but one of those games.
All five losses came by double digits — margins of 11, 16, 17, 29 and 31 — while averaging just 10.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rams already have eight wins by 14+ points and can turn games into blowouts in a heartbeat.
Los Angeles ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency with the lowest offensive variance in the league, against the No. 2 schedule by opponent quality. The Rams are elite on early downs, late downs and late in games.
Thirteen of their 17 games came against teams with eight or more wins, and Matthew Stafford has been by far the best quarterback in EPA per play against playoff-caliber opponents.
The gap widens even more in close-game execution. Carolina went 4-13 in one-score games — worst in the NFL — while the Rams went 13-4, best in the league.
Yes, the Rams defense has vulnerabilities, but not in this matchup. Carolina’s defense is bottom-10 against opposing WR1s (hello, Puka Nacua) and atrocious versus tight ends — a problem against a Rams offense that leans heavily on 13 personnel.
The Panthers might hang around early (top-five first-quarter defense), but eventually the Rams will do what they always do.
And no, I’m not moved at all by Carolina beating the Rams earlier this season. That game featured a tipped Stafford interception in the end zone, a pick-six, and two fourth-down touchdown passes from Carolina — an 11.5 EPA swing on extreme outliers.
Even then, the Rams dominated: 61% to 39% success rate, a ridiculous 76% rushing success rate, only five third downs faced all game, and 7.4 yards per play. If anything, that result reinforces how much better the Rams actually are.
You’ll hear a lot this week about small-sample trends involving sub-.500 teams. Fine. Here are two that actually matter:
- Wild Card hosts that missed the playoffs the year before are 14-30 ATS (32%).
- Road Wild Card teams entering off a one-game win streak are 16-4-1 ATS (80%).
Rams -10 in a laugher. Get ready to ride the escalator.
Pick: Rams -10 (-110, bet365)
Packers vs Bears Moneyline Prediction
There is simply no way the Packers should be favored in Chicago.
The Bears are the better team right now on both offense and defense. I make this spread Chicago by more than a field goal, and I’m more than happy to take the moneyline at essentially even money.
The Packers' rushing attack is fading, their offensive line is struggling through injuries, and they’re running into a Bears run defense that’s been elite, backed by a top-five offensive line on the other side. Green Bay's defense has cratered — bottom-10 in DVOA over the last six games — with injuries piling up and regression hitting hard.
Chicago’s defense isn’t great overall, but it’s trending up, getting healthier, and playing closer to league average over the last six weeks.
The home/road split matters too: Green Bay’s defense has been bottom-10 on the road all season; Chicago’s defense grades far better at home (13th) than on the road (30th).
This absolutely feels like a one-score game that comes down to a late drive. Even so, there’s no justification for the Bears being home underdogs — and they won’t be by kickoff.
Pick: Bears Moneyline (-104, FanDuel)
Anderson's Early NFL Wild Card Round Bets
- Rams -10 (-110, bet365)
- Bears Moneyline (-104, FanDuel)
