David Johnson Prop Pick: Why He’s Likely to Go Under His Total Scrimmage Yards Prop In Houston

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Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: David Johnson

David Johnson Prop Pick for 2020


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David Johnson was likely to be Kenyan Drake’s backup heading into 2020, so the trade from Arizona to Houston will likely give DJ a chance to be a workhorse back again.

Still, it’s unclear how big of a role he’ll have with Duke Johnson also capable of handling a sizable role. My guess is that David Johnson inherits a lot of the Carlos Hyde role and sees 12 to 17 carries a game.

David Johnson is a much more talented pass-catching back than Hyde, so I expect DJ to get his fair share of passing down work, too. However, Duke Johnson is very likely going to see most of his work in the passing game.

Any significant decrease to DJ’s pass-catching role will lead to the under here. I’m projecting him to rush 210 times at a rate of 3.90 yards per rush, and for 42 receptions at 8.0 yards per catch. That comes out to 1,156 total scrimmage yards. So with the roughly 200-yard edge, I’m projecting this under will hit about 70% of the time.

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