Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we first introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 127-83-4 (60.5%) against closing lines, the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 145-102-7 against the closing spread over the past seven years. That equates to a 58.7% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 240 games.
In Week 2, the unlucky team in these games went 2-3 ATS, but still covered by an average of 3.5 points thanks to two blowout covers, two close cover losses, and one blowout cover loss. By Expected Score, these teams would have gone 3-2 ATS.
Luck Totals also kick in this week. Here's a refresher of the new Luck Total criteria:
For Luck Totals, the new criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Based on our Week 3 NFL Luck Rankings, there is one side and four totals that meet the criteria.
